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National Bank Open Finals Odds & Picks – Sinner vs De Minaur

Eric Rosales

by Eric Rosales in Tennis

Updated Aug 19, 2023 · 8:25 PM PDT

Jannike Sinner clapping with racket after win
Aug 12, 2023; Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Jannik Sinner (ITA) celebrates after defeating Tommy Paul (USA) (not pictured) in semi-final play at Sobeys Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
  • Jannik Sinner meets Alex De Minaur in the final of the National Bank Open in Toronto
  • Sinner holds a decisive 4-0 head-to-head advantage over his opponent
  • See the Sinner vs De Minaur odds, predictions, and best bets below

Jannik Sinner will be seeking his first win at an ATP Masters event when he takes to centre court Sunday at the National Bank Open Final.

His opponent, Alex De Minaur, is hoping for his first win against Sinner, after dropping the first four head-to-heads with the Italian.

It should be both competitive and friendly: the pair are also doubles partners, and were bounced in the first round of this tournament.

Action goes Sunday (Aug 13) at 4pm ET from Sobey’s Stadium in Toronto. You can watch the match live on Sportsnet.

Sinner vs De Minaur Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Jannik Sinner -275 -3.5 (-118) Over 22.5 (-110)
Alex De Minaur +198 +3.5 (-112) Under 22.5 (-122)

Oddsmakers are siding with the 8th-ranked Sinner, pegging him as a -275 favorite over the Aussie, an implied win probability of 73.33%.

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Jannik Sinner Betting Analysis

In terms of strain, it’s been a relatively light run to the finals for Sinner, who will be looking for his second ATP title in 2023.

After a first-round bye, he breezed past unranked Matteo Berrettini in straight sets, and his Round of 16 opponent Andy Murray withdrew with an abdominal strain. After a three-set win over Gael Monfils in the quarters, Sinner bested American Tommy Paul 6-4, 6-4.

The 12th-ranked American will be the only seeded player he will face in Toronto — and Paul did much of Sinner’s heavy lifting, knocking off top-ranked Carlos Alcaraz.

Sinner will be trying to avoid going 0-3 in Masters 1000 events. He’s lost twice at the Miami Open, losing this year to Daniil Medvedev in straight sets, and dropping the title match in 2021 to Hubert Hurkacz.

A win means the soon-to-be 22-year-old (his birthday is Aug 16) would vault him past Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, earning a top-6 ranking for the first time in his career.

Alex De Minaur Betting Analysis

It was a much different path to the finals for the 24-year-old Aussie, who will be facing his fourth ranked opponent in Toronto. A win would earn him his second title this season, and first Masters 1000 crown.

De Minaur started the tournament besting 11th-seed Cameron Norrie in straight sets, before dispatching Gabriel Diallo in straight sets in Round 2.

He went the distance against #8 American Taylor Fritz, winning 7-6 (7), 4-6, 6-1, before knocking off 2nd-seeded Medvedev in the quarterfinals 7-6 (7), 7-5.

De Minaur dumped Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the semis, with the Spaniard’s claim to fame having knocked off 3rd-seeded Ruud in the Round of 16.

This is nothing new for De Minaur, who knocked off the 3-seed Paul, 7th-seed Dominik Koepfer and top-seeded Stefanos Tsitsipas in consecutive matches to win the title in Los Cabos last week.


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Sinner vs De Minaur Predictions

These two have ripped it up on hard courts this year, with Sinner going a sharp 17-4 in his matches, with De Minaur 19-6 on the surface in 2023.

The most recent meetings between these two were in 2022. Sinner won on the hard-courts at the Aussie Open, taking it in straight sets 7-6 (3), 6-4, 6-3. He also bested De Minaur at the Madrid Open on clay that same year.

Sinner vs De Minaur Stats

Jannik Sinner
Alex De Minaur
8 ATP Ranking 18
7 ATP Titles 7
40-11 W-L (2023) 32-16
4-0 Head-to-Head Record 0-4

If there’s one thing that De Minaur could use to his advantage in this match is his conditioning and his ability to keep the ball in play.

In his five matches in Toronto, he’s had 12 or fewer errors in every match, a paltry 4.3 per set. His opponents have been prone to commit more errors as he’s been able to extend rallies, with his opponents hitting 98 unforced errors, nearly nine per set.

If the Aussie can extend points against his Italian doubles partner, that might be just the gameplan to frustrate Sinner, which could add unnecessary weight to the situation as he avoids another Masters 1000 loss to a guy who had never gotten past the quarters in an event prior to Toronto.

Because of that, we’ll pick this one to go the distance.

Pick: OVER 22.5 games (-110)

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