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Nitto ATP Finals Final: Tsitsipas vs Thiem

Hayley Graham

by Hayley Graham in Tennis

Updated Apr 9, 2020 · 11:24 AM PDT

Stefanos Tsitsipas about to hit a backahnd
Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem will face each other in the ATP Finals Final Sunday. Photo by Carine [Flickr].
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem will compete in the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals title match
  • This will be the seventh time the two players have played each other
  • Read the preview below for analysis and prediction on the final

The 2019 Nitto ATP Finals has been anything less than ordinary, as finalists Dominic Thiem and Stefanos Tsitsipas have eliminated the likes of Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, and Rafael Nadal en route to the title match.

The ATP Finals will officially have a first-time champion for the fourth year in a row. Thiem is slightly favored in this match with -125 odds, but it was Tsitsipas who had better ATP Finals Odds coming into the tournament at +1200 to Thiem’s +1400.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Dominic Thiem Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1.0 (-120) EVEN Over 23.5 (-110)
Dominic Thiem -1.0 (-110) -125 Under 23.5 (-120)

All odds taken Nov. 16, 2019.

Tsitsipas’s Road to the Finals

Tsitsipas had a very impressive group stage, having only lost to Rafael Nadal in his final group stage match. But at this point he had already made the semifinals. He then faced Roger Federer in his semifinals match. The young tennis phenom defeated the six-time winner in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4.

YouTube video

The Greek was able to save 11 of 12 break points throughout the match, and really took advantage of every Federer error. This is definitely the biggest final of his young career. Six break points Tsitsipas faced were in the first set and saved them all. Federer was able to pressure Tsitsipas consistently but could not convert enough breaks.

Interestingly enough, Federer played practically flawless tennis just a match before where he beat Djokovic in straight sets to reach the semifinals. In his match against Tsitsipas, he recorded 26 unforced errors.

Reaching this finals is a huge step in the right direction for the young tennis star. He is now 2-2 in career match ups against Federer. Their 17-year age gap between the two was also the largest in this history of the tournament.

Thiem’s Road to the Finals

Thiem was able to beat the defending champion, Alexander Zverev in straight sets as well, 7-5, 6-3. In the group stage, he also managed to beat both Federer and Djokovic, becoming the first player to do so in the group stages of this tournament.

YouTube video

Zverev was hoping to defend his title and win back to back championships, but he wasn’t able to convert any of the four break points that he forced against Thiem. He had a double fault to end the first set giving Thiem a 1-0 lead early on. The turning point of the game was when Thiem led 3-2. Zverev began falling apart with a bunch of unforced errors. Thiem was able to break him with a forehand shot, and that seemed the be the end of it.

This has been a career-defining season for Dominic Thiem. He’s chasing his sixth title, and broke ties with his former coach, Gunter Bresnik. His new coach, Nicolas Massu, has been able to introduce new elements into his game, including more variety in his strokes across all playing surfaces.


Thiem is slightly favored in this match, and both players have had an excellent tournament. Both are coming off incredible seasons, and that carried through to matches this tournament, fending off some of the best players in the world.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Dominic Thiem

50-24 2019 Record 47-16
2 2019 Singles Titles 5
2 Head-To-Head Record 4

Tsitsipas has taken bits of Thiem’s game, and tried to make them his own. The two play a fairly similar style. They play with the same type of intensity and effort on the court. Thiem leads their head to head series 4-2, with their most recent meeting having come just in October, when they played each other in the China Open final.

Best Bet

This match could really go either way. Both players are playing elite tennis and some of the best of their careers. I think Tsitsipas might be able to come out on top with this one. He’s studied Thiem more than anyone, it seems, and something that can be used as an advantage.

Pick: Tsitsipas (EVEN)

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