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2019 ATP Finals Odds & Pick: Djokovic Favored at +110

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in Tennis

Updated Apr 1, 2020 · 9:13 AM PDT

Match in the Nitto ATP Finals arena
Will Novak Djokovic cash in as the favorite at the 2019 ATP Nitto Finals? Photo by Carine06 (Flickr).
  • Alex Zverev won the ATP Nitto Finals last season, beating Novak Djokovic in the final match
  • Djokovic has won 12 of his last 13 matches overall
  • Daniil Medvedev has more hard-court wins this season than any other player

After Novak Djokovic won the Paris Masters, he’s now favored at the 2019 Nitto ATP Finals. All of the big stars will be there – Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev – but once again, it will be a mild upset if Djokovic doesn’t take home the trophy. Let’s take a closer look at this event and examine the best bets.

2019 ATP Nitto Finals Odds

Player Odds
Novak Djokovic +110
Roger Federer +350
Daniil Medvedev +400
Rafael Nadal +400
Stefanos Tsitsipas +1200
Alex Zverev +1400
Dominic Thiem +1400
Matteo Berrettini +2000

Odds taken Nov. 4.

Djokovic Is Back on Top of His Game

Djokovic was forced to retire from the 2019 US Open with a shoulder injury but he appears to be back to full strength now. He won the Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships – not even dropping a single set – and then just won the Rolex Paris Masters in the same fashion.

He did lose in the quarters at the Rolex Shanghai Masters but that’s his only loss in his last 13 matches. That defeat came at the hands of Stefanos Tsitsipas and he came back and pounded him 6-1, 6-2 in the quarters in Paris to show that he’s back.

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When he’s at the top of his game, Djokovic is the best bet at hard court grand slams but at some of the smaller tournaments, you never know. For example, he lost to Alex Zverev of all people in the final at this event last season. Given the price, I’d probably pass on him at +110 but if he’s focused, nobody will beat him.

Pass on Nadal

It’s been a marvelous season for Rafael Nadal. Of course, wins at the French Open and US Open are the jewels of his 2019 campaign and his overall record of 48-6 is impressive. However, he’s not someone I’ll be getting onboard with at this event.

We’ve mentioned previously that Nadal got married recently and hasn’t been uber-focused on tennis. It’s easy to see why as he first had the wedding to think about and then had to get back into the swing of things. He mostly did well at the Rolex Paris Masters but struggled against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the quarters and then pulled out of the semis with an ab injury.

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Although he’s on the board here, keep in mind there’s a chance he misses this event. He’s supposed to take a one-week rest, which he’ll have, but who knows if that’s enough. With the margin of error being so small among the top players, this is enough for me to pass on Nadal.

Value With Medvedev?

It’s entirely possible that Daniil Medvedev has run out of gas. The player who has won more hard court matches than anyone else this season might be wearing down as the season comes to an end. He withdrew from the Kremlin Cup and then lost in his first match to Jeremy Chardy at the Rolex Paris Masters.

However, I’m willing to take a shot with him here as he’ll have played just one match in the previous three weeks by the time this tournament starts. Before these last two tournaments, he had made it to the finals in six straight events, winning three of them. Nobody had been playing better than him.

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It’s the last major push of the season, and I think he’ll be fresh enough to pull this out.

Best Bet: Medvedev (+400)

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