Should Novak Djokovic be the Favorite at the US Open?

Novak Djokovic won Wimbledon, and is now the betting favorite to win the US Open, which will take place between August 27th and September 9th. I go back on forth on whether Djokovic’s odds reflect a reasonable state of affairs, so for those of you thinking of betting on Djokovic I’ve compiled all the reasons why the Wimbledon winner is (and is not) most likely to win.

2018 US Open Betting Odds, Men’s

Odds as of 7/23/2018

We’re tracking these odds at the US Open Futures Tracker, to give you a more granular view of these odds and how they’ve evolved.

How Past Wimbledon Winners Have Done at the US Open

• Broadly speaking, Wimbledon champions have been successful (or at least present) in the US Open final
• Novak Djokovic has completed the double at a higher rate than average

Take a peek below at the last ten years of Wimbledon and the US Open. You can see the same names seem to keep appearing.

Since the turn of the millenium, seven of the 18 winners of the Wimbledon Championships have gone on to win the US Open. In the last ten years, the Wimbledon winner has appeared in the final five times.

Novak Djokovic has won the US Open two of the three years he has won Wimbledon. He completed the double in 2011 and 2015, and lost in the semi-finals to Kei Nishikori in 2014.

Why Novak Djokovic Should be Favored at the US Open

• He’s a historically dominant player

Wimbledon is an extremely competitive tennis tournament, and winning it requires playing at the absolute highest level of tennis. Djokovic’s match against Rafael Nadal approached the absolute peak of men’s tennis in ways no match in the last 18 months or so has.

When Djokovic is winning, he’s winning. He completed the Wimbledon/US Open double twice in the three times he won Wimbledon, and he’s won multiple slams in three of the six years he’s won a slam.

Lastly, and this is a minor point: Novak Djokovic was recently the most dominant force in the history of men’s tennis. The stretch of 2015-2016 in which nobody in the world was capable of beating him was a historic one for the sport. If Djokovic can solve whatever problems plagued him in the period immediately following that, we should all be very scared.

Why Novak Djokovic Should Not be Favored at the US Open

• It’s a different tournament, and boasts a highly competitive field
• He’s just broken a long, unexplained slump

The US Open is a completely different tournament from Wimbledon, played on a different surface on a different continent. It’s also played a few months later, after a swing through some difficult hard court tournaments in North America.

Men’s tennis is also very competitive right now. It’s unlikely that Djokovic can make it to the final without playing either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, and even his lower-ranked opposition will be tough. Andy Murray is on the way back, Kei Nishikori is working back into form, and Juan Martin del Potro is resurgent. The younger players, most notably Alexander Zverev, are not to be discounted, and big-serving Large Tennis Men like Kevin Anderson and John Isner are all a difficult hurdle to clear.

It’s unlikely that Djokovic can make it to the final without playing either Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal, and even his lower-ranked opposition will be tough.

Djokovic is also on the way back from circumstances he has never properly explained. His slump was dramatic, and during it he gifted a handful of players the best day of their careers, and now we’re all supposed to accept that it’s over.

He wrote a weird letter, sort-of-but-not-really explaining the causes of his decline and the motivation behind his return. It is altogether possible, perhaps even likely, that Novak Djokovic is back on form and that the next 18 months of tennis will be as stifling as his previous reign. It is also possible, however, that his journey, the great Saga of Novak Djokovic, will continue in fits and starts.