Pliskova vs Badosa Odds & Prediction – Western & Southern Open Quarterfinals

• World No. 6 Karolina Pliskova battles unseeded Paula Badosa in the quarters of the Western & Southern Open
• Badosa bounced word No. 3 Aryna Sabalenka in Round 2
• Read below for odds, analysis and our betting prediction

Unranked Spaniard Paula Badosa is in the midst of a breakout year.

World #6 Karolina Pliskova, is just trying to break the into the win column this year.

Their two paths collide Friday at the Western & Southern Open quarterfinals, with a spot in the final four on the line.

Pliskova vs Badosa Odds

Odds as of Aug. 19 at FanDuel.

How They Got Here

Badosa’s had the more impactful tournament, showing great resilience in going the distance to win her first two matches.

She snuck by Petra Martic in the opening round 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (8-6), before pulling off a stunner, knocking off the 3-seed  and #3 player in the world Aryna Sabalenka.

A match for the books 📚@paulabadosa upsets the No.3 seed Sabalenka in a terrific three-set battle!#CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/n8U9W9fifS

— wta (@WTA) August 18, 2021

Badosa, who’s also making headlines off the court for splitting with coach Javier Martí just before the start of the National Bank Open in Montreal, rallied from a first set loss to win 5-7, 6-2, 7-6(4). That improved her mark in three-set matches to 11-3 in 2021.

Pliskova, the 5th-seeded player in Cincinnati, was just a single point from being pushed to a third set in her match against American nemesis Jessica Pegula Thursday.

However, she was able to fight off two set points, eventually pushing the second set to a tiebreaker and ousting Pegula, 6-4, 7-6(5). Coming off a finals appearance in Montreal, Pliskova had a first-round bye, then made quick work of Round 2 opponent Yulia Putintseva of Russia, 6-3, 6-2.

Pliskova’s Path

Perhaps the best news for Pliskova this week is she doesn’t have to face Camila Giorgi.

The unseeded Italian bested Pliskova in Montreal — the third time this year that she’s lost to the current 36th-ranked player in the world, and the second straight tournament.

Giorgi stopped her in the quarterfinal of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games, and also beat her in June at the Viking International Eastbourne.

Pliskova has had ample opportunities to add to her career-title total in 2021, but she hasn’t been able to seal the deal.

Her loss in Montreal was the third runner-up she’s had this season. She’s also lost to world #1 Ashleigh Barty at Wimbledon, and Iga Swiatek topped her in Rome in May, beating her at love to claim the title. However, maybe bucking one trend could set the others in motion: her win Thursday against Pegula snapped a 4-match losing streak to the American this year.

Pliskova vs Badosa Head-to-Head Stats

Badosa’s Bid

It’s been a pretty good season for Badosa, who stood in the winner’s circle for the first time since turning pro in 2015. She won at Belgrade against Ana Konjuh, taking the first set before her opponent retired down 0-2 in the second set.

Badosa has had her moments against the world heavies. She knocked off the top-ranked Barty in the quarterfinals of the Volvo Car Open in Charelston, South Carolina in April. Her path also included going through world #11 Belinda Bencic in Round 2. She lost in the semifinals to Russian Veronika Kudermetova.

VICTORIOUS 🌟

🇪🇸 @paulabadosa defeats Rybakina 6-2, 7-6! Securing her spot into the final eight! #CincyTennis pic.twitter.com/iQH5U28dMe

— wta (@WTA) August 20, 2021

She worked her way to the semifinals the following tournament in Madrid, bouncing Bencic in the quarters, before falling straight sets to Barty.

For anyone keeping score, the winner of this match is on a potential collision course with Barty in the final.

What’s the Best Bet?

Badosa has been getting it done with her serve. In the win against Sabalenka, she won 69% of her first serve points, and upped that to 89% against Rybakina. She was also strong winning points on her opponents’ serve, outscoring Rybakina 29-9 and going toe-to-toe with Sabalenka, topping her 43-41.

No stats stand out for Pliskova though she has been opportunistic in Cincinnati: she converted five of seven break chance points in her win over Pegula, and made hay on three of four chances against Putintseva. She’ll hope to continue that trend against Badosa.

This is only the second head-to-head between the two, with the first a Pliskova straight-set win in Miami in 2015.

With the US Open just around the corner, I like the idea of Pliskova rounding into form, and getting that elusive win and exorcising demons along the way. Though it won’t be easy.

Badosa is going to be a tough out, and she’s adept at going the distance. Expect another slugfest here.

The pick:  Over 2.5 sets (+116)