Upcoming Match-ups

Simona Halep Loses in the First Round: What Should US Open Bettors Think?

Alex Kilpatrick

by Alex Kilpatrick in Tennis

Aug 28, 2018 · 9:40 AM PDT

Simona Halep
Simona Halep, previously a favorite at the US Open, has crashed out of the tournament in the first round. Photo by Tatiana Kulitat [CC License].
  • Top seed Simona Halep has crashed out of the US Open on the first day of play
  • How will her surprising departure effect the betting odds?

The first day of the 2018 US Open has already produced one major upset, as Kaia Kanepi defeated Simona Halep 6-2, 6-4.

Simona Halep Out

Simona Halep lost her first-round match against Kaia Kanepi. Kanepi is a four-time WTA Tour winner who reached 15th in the world in 2012. Kanepi also made the quarterfinals at the US Open last year, where she defeated Naomi Osaka. She’s struggled somewhat with injury, so despite her seeding she’s not nobody.  

This is all very reminiscent of Wimbledon, where most of the top seeded players were out in the first two rounds. In the end, that made life easier for Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber, who cruised to the finals dropping just one set between them.

Simona Halep US Open Odds

Player Pre-tournament odds to win 2018 US Open
Serena Williams +500
Simona Halep +700
Angelique Kerber +700

Simona Halep was a favorite to win the US Open, listed at +700 just a week ago. This is after a promising hardcourt swing: Halep won the Canadian Open and made the final of the Cincinnati Masters. There were some cracks in the armour: Halep dropped a set to Ajla Tomljanovic at the Cincinnati Masters and was saved by a rain delay.

With Halep out, the full odds sheet should have Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber as even heavier favorites than before. You can track the odds over at the US Open Odds Tracker.

US Open Betting Advice

What we’re seeing in 2018 is obviously a much flatter skill curve than we’re used to, at least on the Women’s side. It’s difficult to explain the amount of upsets we’ve seen at big tournaments otherwise. That should encourage bettors to be wary of favorites in match betting, and do a little research into underrated low seeds. Furthermore, if the field gets hollowed out like it did at Wimbledon, look at the remaining favorites to win the tournament.

The remaining question is what to make of Kaia Kanepi. Should she be favored in her upcoming match against Jil Teichmann?

Player Spread Moneyline
Kaia Kanepi -5.5 (-110) -450
Jil Teichmann +5.5 (-110) +345

Looking back at Wimbledon, six of the seven women who scored upsets in the early rounds went on to win at least once more. Furthermore, fatigue shouldn’t be an issue for Kanepi, since she defeated Halep in straight sets. It seems likely that she’ll continue her good fortune against Halep’s “easy” draw.

Author Image