Sinner vs Alcaraz Picks, Predictions & Odds for Wimbledon Final
By Chris Amberley in Tennis
Published:
- Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz meet for the Wimbledon Men’s Singles Title on Sunday
- Alcaraz is bidding for his third straight Wimbledon crown
- See my Sinner vs Alcaraz picks and predictions below, plus the odds for the Wimbledon Final
The last six Men’s Singles Grand Slam Tennis titles have been won by either Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz. So, it’s only fitting that the rivals will meet in Sunday’s Wimbledon Final. Online sportsbooks opened Alcaraz as a -140 favorite, but since then, the market has shifted in Sinner’s favor. I’m buying the move, as I expect the Italian to end the Spaniard’s incredible run of dominance.
The action gets underway at 11am ET from the All England Club, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Prediction
Alcaraz enters the contest riding a 24-match winning streak. He’s the two-time defending Wimbledon champ, and is one win away from a sixth Grand Slam title at age 22.
Not to be outdone, Sinner has won two of the past three Grand Slams, losing only to Alcaraz in an epic Roland Garros Final last month. Sinner held a commanding two-set lead in that matchup, but couldn’t close the door. I expect he learned a valuable less from their previous matchup, and will finally snap a personal 5-match losing skid to Alcaraz.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Last 5 H2H Results
The Spaniard owns an 8-4 lifetime record versus Sinner, twice overcoming a 2-set deficit to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. He hasn’t played his best tennis over the past two weeks, and will need to rely heavily on winners to outlast Sinner again. Alcaraz has dropped at least one set in four of six matches so far, and needed 5 sets to win his opener.
He produced winners on only 12.5% of his points in sets 1 and 2 in the semifinal, but then ramped that number up over 20% in the final two sets to advance. If you don’t hit winners at a +20% rate versus Sinner, look out. The Italian grinds opponents into dust, just ask the GOAT.
Sinner breezed past Novak Djokovic in the semis, winning in straight sets while dropping only 10 games. He won 81% of his first serve points, crushed 36 winners, and faced only two break points.
Sinner vs Alcaraz Picks
- Pick: Jannik Sinner Moneyline (-110 at Caesars)
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Sinner and Alcaraz are light years ahead of the competition in the Men’s game right now, and this match has all the ingredients of another 5-set thriller. Just the thought of it makes me think Nadal-Federer from 2008, when the two legends put on one of the greatest displays of tennis ever witnessed at the All-England Club.
There’s little separating Sinner and Alcaraz, which is why their matches continue to be so compelling. Yes, Alcaraz has come out on top in five straight, but four of those went the distance, with the Spaniard overcoming a deficit in three.
It’s not a matter of if, but when Sinner gets over the hump versus Alcaraz, and his form has been the more consistent of the two this week. The Italian has won in straight sets in five of his six matches, blowing out the competition.
Let’s not forget that despite Alcaraz’s incredible run, Sinner is still the World No. 1. He defeated Alcaraz in their only grass-court matchup back in 2022 at Wimbledon, and I’m betting he accomplishes the feat again on Sunday.
Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz Odds
The most favorable odds we can get on Sinner’s moneyline at the moment is -110 at Caesars. At one point on Friday, he was +120 to claim his first Wimbledon title, so pat yourself on the back if you grabbed that number.
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Odds as of July 12th at Caesars. Check out SBD’s Caesars Sportsbook review to see the available sign-up bonuses.
As for the total games, that number sits at 40.5. That may seem lofty, but each of their past three Grand Slam matches have easily cleared that total.
Sports Writer
As SBD's resident Swiss Army Knife, Chris covers virtually every sport including NFL, PGA, NBA, MLB, NCAAB, NCAAF and the Olympics. A true grinder, he'd rather pick off small edges in the player props market than swing for the fences with a 5-leg parlay.
