Sinner vs Shelton Picks, Predictions & Betting Lines

• Italy’s Jannik Sinner is a massive -1400 favorite to top American Ben Shelton at the ATP Finals
• Sinner has won seven straight matches against Shelton
• See my Sinner vs Shelton predictions and picks below

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No matter what he does, this is the end of the road for Ben Shelton at the Nitto ATP Finals. Fitting, then, that his opponent is Jannik Sinner, who has been a figurative road block for Shelton his entire career.

Sinner, the defending champion at this event, has already locked up his spot in the semifinals out of the John McEnroe Bracket, and is a hefty -1400 favorite to end Shelton’s season with a loss.

Other than pride (a big motivator, in this case), a Shelton win doesn’t even factor into tiebreaker scenarios for the other two men playing each other and looking to advance: Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime need to win and they’re in.

This one gets underway Friday at 8am ET from Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy, with the Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage.

Sinner vs Shelton Odds

Perhaps if Sinner wasn’t so dominant in this head-to-head, bettors might jump at the +800 Shelton line for the upset. The Italian has nothing to play for at this point, as he’s into the final four no matter what happens in the remaining matches in his bracket. Perhaps home country pride weighs more here than probably not going as hard against an opponent in a mean-nothing match.

Sinner is a 4.5-game favorite on the spread, while the scoring line is at 20.5 games for this best-of 3 match.

Odds as of Nov 13 at bet365. Get a bet365 promo code to wager on all tennis matches.

It’s not just that Sinner has won seven straight matches in this series, losing only the first time they played each other in 2023 at Shanghai, it’s how he’s done it.

Since that three set loss, the Italian has not lost a single set to the young American in seven matches. Instead, the only moments that have even had relative drama are the six set tiebreakers they have played in six matches.

But Sinner has won all of those as well.

He’s been about as good as you can be in Turin, where he’s advanced to the semifinals for the third year in a row, having not yet dropped a set.

Sinner dropped the Canadian Auger-Aliassime 7-5, 6-1 to open, then took apart third-ranked Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3.

Sinner vs Shelton H2H Results

It’s been far more trying for the 23-year-old American. Shelton opened the tournament with a straight sets loss to Zverev, pushing it as far as a second-set tiebreak but falling 8-6 in that spring to seven.

His tournament dreams essentially went up in smoke against Auger-Aliassime. After dropping the first set, Shelton pushed it to the limit with a win in a second-set tiebreak. But he couldn’t close the deal, dropping the final set 7-5.

On top of having been eliminated from Grand Slam play in two tournaments by Sinner (Australian and Wimbledon), it was Sinner that downed Shelton in Paris, as Shelton’s lead up tourney to the ATP Finals.

Sinner vs Shelton Picks & Prediction

• Under 20.5 Games (-138 at bet365)

Sinner’s year has been exceptional, racking up an impressive 53-6 record this season, including three straight tournament wins leading up to Turin. His five singles titles also includes two major championships, taking the Aussie Open and Wimbledon.

If not for Carlos Alcaraz, who dropped him in both the French Open and US Open, this could have been a season for the ages.

It just shows he’s at his peak powers, while Shelton is still learning to play with consistency and able to handle big-match pressure. His backhand is still a weakness that Sinner wears out repeatedly, and until Shelton improves that aspect, we’re going to see much the same.

Even with nothing to play for, Sinner doesn’t mess around and makes quick work of the American.