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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Updated Nov 18, 2022 · 7:11 AM PST

Stefanos Tsitsipas, Barcelona Open
Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece returns the ball to Jannik Sinner of Italy during a semi final Godo tennis tournament in Barcelona, Spain, Saturday, April 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Joan Monfort)
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas is the favorite against Andrey Rublev Friday at the ATP Finals
  • The winner of Tsitsipas vs Rublev will play Casper Ruud in the semifinals.
  • Read on as we break down the matchup and make a prediction

Both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Andrey Rublev have had to survive a third-set tiebreak win against former No. 1 Daniil Medvedev to get to this point.

They meet Friday (3 pm ET) to decide who gets to the ATP Finals semifinals. Read on for our Tsitsipas vs Rublev picks here.

Tsitsipas vs Rublev Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
[2] Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) -2.5 (-103) -167 O 23.5 (-107)
[6] Andrey Rublev (RUS) +2.5 (-125) +135 U 23.5 (-120)

Odds as of Nov. 18 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the ATP Tour Finals

Both have lost to Novak Djokovic. On the plus side, if they win this sudden-death pool match, they won’t have to play him on Saturday.

The winner will meet Casper Ruud, and both have winning records against him. Tsitsipas is the -167 favorite in the odds above.


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Quick Surface Benefits Both

This is Rublev’s third trip to the ATP Finals, and he has never made the weekend.

But the court is playing quick this year, and he seems to have benefited the most from that.

Most impressively, he seems to be doing a great job at ignoring his inner demons and has even – gasp! – been spotted smiling on the court a few times.

Sometimes it was a rueful grin, but there’s been little sign so far of some of the emotional self-sabotaging that can go on with the 25-year-old Russian.

He was dusted by Djokovic in his second pool match. But on the plus side, he didn’t waste a ton of energy. And he won a pair of tiebreaks, both with 9-7 scores to get past Medvedev in his opener.

Rublev’s backhand seems to working particularly well this week. He’s changing direction with it and going down the line, which for a player typically means they’re confident with it – even if it’s most often not their biggest weapon.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Head-to-Head

Stefanos Tsitsipas
Andrey Rublev
24 (Aug. 12, 1998) Age 25 (Oct. 20, 1997)
Athens, Greece Birthplace Moscow, Russia
6-4 Height 6-2
9 Career ATP Singles Titles 12
No. 3 (Aug. 9, 2021) Career-Best Ranking No. 5 (Sept. 13, 2021)
No. 3 Current Ranking No. 7
$21.056,329 Career Prize Money $13,140,858
61-23 2022 Won/Loss Record 50-19
6 Head-to-Head Wins 5

Extended and Competitive Match History

Unlike Taylor Fritz and Félix Auger-Aliassime, who had never played each other until 2022 and only once until this week, Tsitsipas vs Rublev has already had 11 editions.

They first met as teenagers at an indoor Challenger, won by Rublev in a third-set tiebreak.

If there’s anything you can glean from this history, it’s that even back in their Challenger and Next Gen days, they’ve always played close, tight matches, with not that many tiebreaks.

Despite Tsitsipas’s win in Kazakhstan last month (another tight one), Rublev’s record in their matches on quicker indoor hard courts is excellent.

Tsitsipas vs Rublev Match History

Year Tournament Surface Score Winner
2022 Astana (SF) Indoor Hard 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 Tsitsipas
2022 Madrid Masters (QF) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 2-6, 6-4 Tsitsipas
2021 ATP Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-4, 6-4 Rublev
2021 Monte Carlo Masters (F) Outdoor Clay 6-3, 6-3 Tsitsipas
2021 Rotterdam (SF) Indoor Hard 6-3, 7-6 (2) Rublev
2020 ATP Finals (RR) Indoor Hard 6-1, 4-6, 7-6 (6) Tsitsipas
2020 French Open (QF) Outdoor Clay 7-5, 6-2, 6-3 Tsitsipas
2020 Hamburg (F) Outdoor Clay 6-4, 3-6, 7-5 Rublev
2019 US Open (R128) Outdoor Hard 6-4, 6-7 (5), 7-6 (7), 7-5 Rublev
2018 Next Gen Finals (SF) Indoor Hard 4-3, 3-4, 4-0, 2-4, 4-3 Tsitsipas
2017 Quimper Challenger (R32) Indoor Hard 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (7) Rublev

With Tsitsipas, who has won more matches on the ATP Tour this year than anybody else, it still has been somewhat unconvincing when he has stepped on the court lately.

He has played some great tennis. But for whatever reason, you get a sense that any moment he could come out and just lay an egg.

It’s probably just the result of all those matches and some pretty big disappointments in big matches in 2022. He really needs a vacation.

But with at most two more matches to play, the 24-year-old can at least see the finish line.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Andrey Rublev Prediction

Rublev beat Tsitsipas a year ago in this very event.

And he is playing well enough this week to beat him on Friday. But Tsitsipas, even less than inspired, is a very tough player for him to beat in straight sets.

The riskier bet is to pick the underdog Rublev in three sets (+380). That one paid off just yesterday when Fritz pulled it off in the same situation against Félix Auger-Aliassime.

The likelier outcome is a long match.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets  (+123)

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