US Open Men’s Singles Round of 16 Odds & Picks – Day 7 September 5
- Only three of the original eight men’s seeds expected to reach the fourth round in this half are still alive
- In all four cases, the players are meeting for the first time in their careers
- We break down the matchups, look for value, and make predictions
On paper, the round of 16 matchups in the bottom half of the US Open men’s singles draw were drawn up on paper one way – and turned out completely different in reality.
No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas vs No. 16 Cristian Garin ended up as…unseeded Carlos Alcaraz vs qualifier Peter Gojowczyk.
And No. 8 Casper Ruud vs. No. 11 Diego Schwartzman ended up as Schwartzman vs qualifier Botic Van de Zandschulp.
So while upsets are exciting for a tournament when they happen, they make things more unpredictable as the draw whittles down.
US Open Men’s Singles Day 7 Odds – Sept 5
| Sunday Matchups | Odds |
|---|---|
| [24] Daniel Evans (GBR) vs [2] Daniil Medvedev (RUS) | +1100/-3000 |
| [Q] Botic Van de Zandschulp (NED) vs [11] Diego Schwartzman (ARG) | +350/-475 |
| [Q] Peter Gojowczyk (GER) vs Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) | +340/-450 |
| Frances Tiafoe (USA) vs [12] Félix Auger-Aliassime (CAN) | +140/-170 |
Odds as of Sept 4 at DraftKings
Peter Gojowczyk vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
This is a tricky one for Alcaraz, who is just 18 and coming off the match of his life in a five-set upset over No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas.
With a day off between matches, he has time to recover physically. And, at 18, how much are things really going to hurt?
But at this stage of his career, it might almost feel like an end point, not a starting point to a great run at a Grand Slam.
If Gojowczyk were a better player, more experienced at this level, he might have a better shot than he does.
Because for Alcaraz to face a qualifier to get into his first Grand Slam quarterfinal is a golden opportunity a future champion doesn’t let get away.
The 32-year-old German, currently ranked No. 141, reached a career best of No. 39 three years ago. But he was only 7-6 at the ATP Tour level coming into New York.
But he’s had impressive wins: a shocker over No. 23 seed Ugo Humbert in five sets in the first round. And then another five-set win over the very solid Dusan Lajovic to back it up. In the third round, he got a good break – another qualifier, Henri Laaksonen. He got through that one in four sets.
A ⭐️ is born in New York.
18-year-old Carlos Alcaraz joins Pete Sampras and Michael Chang in #USOpen history. pic.twitter.com/UjBr8Pa5Kt
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 3, 2021
For Alcaraz, who is improving by the week, the five-set win over Tsitsipas was as impressive as it was unexpected. Alcaraz had dropped the fourth set 0-6, only to come back and win it in a fifth-set tiebreak.
He will have too much for Gojowczyk, who already has six matches in tough conditions in his body.
Best Bet: Alcaraz in three sets (+120)
Frances Tiafoe vs Félix Auger-Aliassime Prediction
Auger-Aliassime, the higher-ranked player, is a slight favorite.
But in actual reality, this one feels like a neck-and-neck affair.
The two are meeting for the first time, although they know each other off the court. While Auger-Aliassime has benefited from huge crowd support so far this week, that is likely to end when he meets an American, at the American slam.
To his credit, he expects that. Especially as the night match on Arthur Ashe Stadium Sunday.
Earlier in the season, before Auger-Aliassime had made some good breakthroughs in big tournaments – notably his quarterfinal at Wimbledon – you might give him less of a chance. But this is another great opportunity, against an unseeded player, to reach a major quarterfinal.
Frances Tiafoe defeated (5) Andrey Rublev in 5 sets to advance to the Round of 16.
He is the first American man to reach the 2nd week at the US Open in back-to-back years since Andy Roddick and Mardy Fish in 2011-12. pic.twitter.com/FlRhld07tr
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 4, 2021
And if he wins, he would have to face another unseeded player to make the semifinals – either Alcaraz or Gojowczyk.
It will be a shot-making affair, which likely will have ebbs and flows and, as a result, it might take awhile.
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime in four sets (+300)
Dan Evans vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Once again, the No. 2 seed is a heavy favorite in his match. So at -3000, you have to look for other sources of value.
The problem for Evans is that Medvedev has been devastating so far: three straight-set wins over very competent opponents in Richard Gasquet, Dominik Koepfer and Pablo Andujar.
That's just not fair, @DaniilMedwed 😱 pic.twitter.com/4PVqBIAdjP
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) September 3, 2021
With a straight-sets win at -230, that’s probably the better prop.
Best Bet: Medvedev in straight sets (-230)
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Stephanie gets the straight dope from the tennis insiders. On court, she has represented her country internationally. A BA in journalism led to years on the MLB beat and a decade covering tennis globally. She's written for Postmedia, the Guardian, the New York Times and also publishes OpenCourt.ca.
