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Wimbledon Men’s Singles Final Odds & Pick: Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer

Robert Duff

by Robert Duff in Tennis

Updated Mar 24, 2020 · 11:50 AM PDT

Novak Djokovic hitting a return shot
Novak Djokovic is the -195 favorite to defeat Roger Federer in Sunday's final and defend his Wimbledon men's singles title. Photo By Carine06 (Flickr).
  • Novak Djokovic is a -195 favorite to defeat Roger Federer in Sunday’s Wimbledon men’s singles final
  • Federer was the 2017 men’s singles champion
  • At least one of Federer or Djokovic have appeared in all but two Wimbledon finals since 2003

When you think Wimbledon men’s singles champions, you think Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Djokovic is the defending champion. Federer was the 2017 champion.

Djokovic beat Federer in the 2014 and 2015 finals. Sportsbooks are favoring The Joker in their Wimbledon odds for Sunday’s final. Djokovic is a -195 favorite to successfully retain his title.

Novak Djokovic vs Roger Federer Wimbledon Final Odds

Player Moneyline Spread Total
Novak Djokovic -195 -3 (-105) O 42 (-120)
Roger Federer +155 +3 (-125) U 42 (-110)

All odds taken 07/13/19

Match Time: Sunday, July 14, 9 am EST

At least one of Federer or Djokovic have played in all but two Wimbledon men’s singles finals since 2003.

The Case For Djokovic

Plenty of trends swing in Djokovic’s favor. He’s the last defending champion to retain the men’s singles title (2014-15). Djokovic is the last #1 seed to win the men’s singles title (2015). He’s 2-0 in Wimbledon finals against Federer. Djokovic is the only player that Federer has faced in a Wimbledon final that he’s never beaten in a Wimbledon final.

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Beyond the trends, check out the facts. Djokovic has won three of the last four Grand Slam titles. He’s 32-1 in his last 33 Grand Slam matches.

Head to head, Djokovic holds a 25-22 all-time edge on Federer but he’s won the last four meetings. He’s also 2-1 against Federer on grass courts.

Entering his semifinal against Djokovic, Spain’s Roberto Bautista Agut had dropped just one set all tournament. Djokovic summarily dismissed Agut 6-2, 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.

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A win in this match and Djokovic, 32, will join Federer, Rafael Nadal and Rod Laver as the only men’s players during the open era to win four Grand Slam titles after their 30th birthday.

It would also leave Djokovic trailing only Federer (eight), William Renshaw (seven) and Pete Sampras (seven) in all-time Wimbledon men’s singles titles.

The Case For Federer

At 37, Federer seems to save his best tennis for the All-England Lawn Tennis Club. He’s only failed to advance to at least the quarterfinals once since 2003. In the past five years, Federer had played in three finals and reached as far as the semifinals in another tournament.

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There was some consternation when world no. 3 Federer was seeded second ahead of no. 2 Nadal, but the Swiss legend showed it was the right call in their semifinal clash when he dispatched Rafa 7-6(7-3), 1-6, 6-3, 6-4.

Federer has fared much better against Nadal (3-1) than Djokovic (1-2) at Wimbledon. His lone triumph over The Joker there was a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 verdict in the 2012 semifinals.


He’ll celebrate his 38th birthday in less than a month. That makes Federer the oldest Wimbledon finalist since Ken Rosewall in 1974. Rosewell lost 6-1, 6-1, 6-4 to Jimmy Connors.

Federer will be seeking his record ninth Wimbledon crown in his 12th final appearance. That’s also a record.

The Verdict

One of Djokovic, Federer, or Nadal have won each of the last 11 men’s singles Grand Slam titles. That won’t be changing here, as the Big Three continue to dominate men’s tennis.

Recent history, though, shows that it’s Djokovic who’s dominating this competition within the competition of men’s tennis. When it comes to Grand Slam finals featuring the Big Three, Djokovic holds court.

Novak Djokovic
Roger Federer
4 Wimbledon Titles 8
5 Wimbledon Finals 12
15 Wimbledon Appearances 21
71-10 Wimbledon Record 101-12
25-22 Head to Head Record 22-25
5 Grass Court Titles 19
34-6 2019 Record 38-4

He beat Nadal in the 2019 Australian Open final. He’s won his last three Grand Slam finals against Federer. In fact, he hasn’t been beaten in a Grand Slam final by either of his competitors for the honor of the GOAT of tennis since Nadal stopped him at the 2014 French Open final.

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Certainly, Federer will have the crowd on his side Sunday. But he’ll be facing the most consistent player in the game today. No one takes the court with a better return game than Djokovic. He seldom make mistakes. And while Djokovic cruised past Agut in his semifinal, Federer battled through a rugged, emotional match against arch-rival Nadal.

Can he find it within himself to get that much out of the tank two matches in a row?

Djokovic will win this match in four sets.

Pick: Novak Djokovic (-195), under 42 (-110)

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