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Women’s Singles US Open Day 5 Round 3 Odds & Predictions

Stephanie Myles

by Stephanie Myles in Tennis

Sep 4, 2020 · 6:21 AM PDT

Open
Upset queen Caroline Garcia meets No. 28 seed Jennifer Brady in the third round of the US Open. Photo by Stephanie Myles (OpenCourt.ca)
  • The top half of the US Open women’s singles draw plays its third-round matches Friday
  • No. 4 Naomi Osaka remains the prohibitive favorite to get through this half and into the final.
  • Rain Thursday evening meant Mertens, Swiatek and McNally are among those who must finish up their second-round matches Friday.

The US Open has now reached the third round of play with eight matches taking place on Friday on the ladies’ side.

See the odds and our top three bets from today’s schedule here.

US Open Day 5 Women’s Singles Round 3 Odds

Player Moneyline Odds at DraftKings
[4] Naomi Osaka (JPN) -530
Marta Kostyuk (UKR) +380
Player Moneyline
[6] Petra Kvitova (CZE) -275
Jessica Pegula (USA) +210
Player Moneyline
[8] Petra Martic (CRO) -375
Varvara Gracheva (RUS) +290
Player Moneyline
[14] Anett Kontaveit (EST) -500
[24] Magda Linette (POL) +370
Player Moneyline
[17] Angelique Kerber (GER) -235
Ann Li (USA) +185
Player Moneyline
[28] Jennifer Brady (USA) -286
Caroline Garcia (FRA) +220
Player Moneyline
[23] Yulia Putintseva (KAZ) -132
Aliaksandra Sasnovich (BLR) +107
Player Moneyline
Shelby Rogers (USA) -205
Madison Brengle (USA) +163

All odds taken Sept. 3

Pick 1: [28] Jennifer Brady (USA) vs Caroline Garcia (FRA)

If Caroline Garcia played every match as aggressively and confidently as she did in upsetting No. 1 seed Karolina Pliskova in the second round, she would be a mainstay in the top 10.

She hasn’t. Two years ago next week, she was No. 4 in the world, and she currently stands at No. 50.

But as well as Jennifer Brady has played so far in 2020, including winning her first career title in Kentucky last month, she doesn’t have her opponent’s resumé, nor her experience. So it’s surprising that the 25-year-old American is that much of a favorite.

Brady impressed in her first two matches this week. But she lost in the first round in her previous two years at Flushing Meadows and also in the first round of the Western & Southern Open, played on the US Open site last week.

If Garcia can neutralize Pliskova’s serve and power that effectively, she can do the same for Brady. The 26-year-old Frenchwoman’s work on her serve, and her return positioning during the shutdown have paid dividends so far.

The two have already played six times – they are at 3-3, with Garcia winning the last one on grass in 2019.

If Garcia believes, it gives her wings to fly. But that’s always the challenge – and the conundrum; the belief level often doesn’t match the talent.

Best bet: Brady in 3 sets

Pick 2: [4] Naomi Osaka (JPN) vs Marta Kostyuk (UKR)

Osaka came into the US Open having made a big statement for social justice – but also having pulled her left hamstring. It caused her to forfeit the Western & Southern Open final to Victoria Azarenka last week.

But after dropping one set in her US Open opener, he demolished the hard-hitting Camila Giorgi in the second round.

Still, for Osaka to be such a strong favorite in this match is based on accomplishment more than recent form.

Kostyuk, not so long ago, was the “next big thing” on the WTA Tour.

At the 2018 Australian Open, just 15, Kostyuk got through the qualifying to the third round.  But then injuries hit. Only now is she taking steps forward.

She would still be eligible for the US Open junior event if they were holding it this year.  But she’s been playing the pro circuit full-time for three years.

Open
In her first US Open main draw, Kostyuk is into the third round. Photo by Stephanie Myles (OpenCourt.ca)

Kostyuk demolished former No. 10 Daria Kasatkina in the first round, and beat former No. 11 and 2018 US Open semifinalist Anastasija Sevastova in straight sets in the second round.

While Osaka will likely pull through, it’s good to see Kostyuk back and you have to give her at least a shot at a set.

Best bet: Osaka in two sets

Pick 3: Shelby Rogers (USA) vs Madison Brengle (USA)

A third-round match between No. 11 seed Elena Rybakina and No. 19 Dayana Yastremska turned into … a third-round match between a pair of unseeded Americans.

Shelby Rogers has come back from a serious knee injury.

Madison Brengle is an iconoclast whose retrieving skills have won her a lot of matches.

Brengle neutralized the power of the hard-hitting Yastremska beautifully in the second-round upset, testing her patience and goading her into making errors.

Rogers also is a hard hitter. But has a little more variety in her game and has come back from the shutdown as fit as she’s ever been.

Both have been in the top 50 in their careers. Neither has won a title.  Brengle, 30,  lost in the first round of the US Open three straight years coming in. Rogers, 27 missed the US Open the last two years.

Brengle leads their head-to-head 2-1 – but the first meeting came all the way back in 2011, Rogers won the most recent one in 2019.

Best bet: Rogers in three sets

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