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WTA Kremlin Cup Semifinal Odds & Pick: Pavlyuchenkova vs Muchova

Hans Themistode

by Hans Themistode in Tennis

Updated Apr 14, 2020 · 8:00 AM PDT

Karolina Muchova
Karolina Muchova is favored over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. Photo By Carine06 (Flickr) [CC License]
  • Karolina Muchova has been on another planet all tournament long as she hasn’t lost a set yet
  • Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, on the other hand, has battled back from a set down on several occasions to come back and win
  • Will Muchova continue her dominant run or will Pavlyuchenkova pull another rabbit out of her hat?

The Kremlin Cup has been full of surprises. The two women who have been spearheading the upset charge has been Karolina Muchova and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

Both women have beaten the odds on numerous occasions during this tournament. To say that they are playing great would be an understatement.

Still, even with both players playing lights out at the moment, it is Muchova who is given the slight edge according to the bookies.

With tournament favorite Elina Svitolina knocked out in the round of 16, the path to winning the Kremlin Cup is a little more open, yet won’t be an easy one.

Karolina Muchova vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Odds

Player Spread Moneyline Total
Karolina Muchova -3.5 (-104) -186 O 21 (-110)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova +3.5 (-116) +166 U 21 (-110)

* Odds taken 10/18/2019

Pavlyuchenkova Continues to Beat the Odds

Pavlyuchenkova, kicked off her Kremlin Cup campaign with an upset win over the number 7 seeded Maria Sakkari.

The aforementioned Sakkari was enjoying a breakout 2019 thus far. She was predicted to make a deep run in the Kremlin Cup but Pavlyuchenkova put an end to her run early.

It wasn’t just that Pavlyuchenkova beat Sakkari, but it was how she did it. Coming back from a set down to win the next two in dominant fashion.

In the following round, Pavlyuchenkova once again found herself down a set. She would go on to win the next two in order to move on to the next round. It is becoming clear that Pavlyuchenkova enjoys fighting back in her matches.

In the quarterfinals, however, she flipped the script. Against Veronika Kudermetova, Pavlyuchenkova would win the match in straight sets. It was far from an easy match as it took over two hours to decide a winner.

With Pavlyuchenkova carving out an impressive run thus far, her run at the Kremlin Cup is expected to come to an end once she faces Karolina Muchova.

Muchova’s Run

While Pavlyuchenkova has had to battle in each of her three matches, Karolina Muchova has made it look easy.

Muchova has had a breakout 2019 and it has only continued during the Kremlin Cup. Her opening round opponent Svetlana Kuznetsova stood no chance as she lost in straight sets.

The number 4 seeded Donna Vekic, who is having an impressive season of her own was dominated in their matchup. Their contest barely lasted an hour on the clock as Muchova was unreal.

Another seeded opponent, this time in the form of Ekaterina Alexandrova, was on the menu for Muchova. Like the others, she fell by the wayside in straight sets.

Having failed to drop a single or truly be challenged at any point of this tournament, it is easy to see why the oddsmakers have given Muchova the edge.

How These Two Matchup

It isn’t surprising to see that these women have never faced one another. Pavlyuchenkova is in the midst of her 14th year on tour while Muchova in the middle of her fifth.

Still, even with no direct game experience between the two, this should be a fairly close contest, but Muchova does seem to hold the advantage.

Pavlyuchenkova vs Muchova Stats

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Karolina Muchova
40 Rankings 35
25-21 Total Win/Loss Record 36-12
22-16 Hard Court Win/Loss Record 26-8
0 Titles Won This Year 1

Things may point in the favor of Muchova but Pavlyuchenkova has proven that she can win matchups when her back is against the wall.

Best Bet

On paper, this looks like Muchova’s match to lose. She has been superb all year long and the consistency in which she has performed at has shown no signs of slowing down, but it is hard to overlook what Pavlyuchenkova has been able to accomplish during this tournament.

She has been doubted time and time again but she has managed to prove her naysayers wrong.

With the current form of Muchova it is difficult to bet against her. So instead, bettors should take a look at the over. Pavlyuchenkova has shown a tendency to fight for every point in her matches. It’s easy to see this one going the distance.

Pick: Over 21 games  (-110)

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