Tour de France Stage 4 Odds, Picks and Predictions
- Stage 4 of the Tour de France (Tuesday, June 29) should come down to a sprint finish
- Inland Brittany hosts the flat, 150.4-kilometre stage
- Can anybody keep Tim Merlier from back-to-back stage wins? Where is the top betting value?
The first three days of this year’s Tour de France have been ugly. While the individual stage results have not been shocking, the number of crashes and riders having to abandon is staggering.
Caleb Ewan was a heavy favorite on Monday, the first sprint stage of this year’s race. However, he crashed in the final stretch, broke his right collarbone, and is out of the event. Tim Merlier took Stage 3, and is the favorite (+250) when things get going on Tuesday (7:40 am ET).
While Merlier’s first Tour de France stage victory came rather easily as sprints go, part of the decisive win was thanks to the carnage behind him. It is reasonable to think Monday’s runner up Jasper Philipsen, plus veterans like Mark Cavendish, and Peter Sagan could be in the mix in Stage 4.
A short flat course should mean the speed of the speed will prosper. Who will that be? Let’s review the odds and consider some options.
Tour de France Stage 4 Odds
| Rider | Odds to Win Stage at DraftKings | Top-3 Finish Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Tim Merlier | +250 | -182 |
| Arnaud Demare | +450 | +110 |
| Mark Cavendish | +500 | +150 |
| Jasper Philipsen | +600 | +175 |
| Wout Van Aert | +1000 | +250 |
| Cees Bol | +1400 | +350 |
| Mads Pedersen | +1400 | +350 |
| Peter Sagan | +1800 | +400 |
| Nacer Bouhanni | +2500 | +650 |
| Sonny Colbrelli | +3300 | +800 |
| Davide Ballerini | +4000 | +900 |
| Mathieu van der Poel | +4000 | +1000 |
Odds as of June 28th
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On paper Stage 3 didn’t look like it was going to be anything more than a typical sprint finish. Indeed a sprint developed, but so much more took place.
Ewan’s departure came after he took Sagan down in a crash. That was one of three spills during the final 10km of racing. Last year’s runner up Primož Roglič finished 1:21 behind Merlier when he was involved in a crash. Earlier in the day Geraint Thomas fell and dislocated his shoulder. In Thomas’s tumble Robert Gesink, a key member of Roglic’s squad, went down and had to abandon the race. Tour favorite and defending champ Tadej Pogačar fell on a downhill with 3.9km remaining and lost time too.
Coming into the Tour de France there was a major question as to who would lead Team Ineos. Formerly known as Team Sky, they have won seven of the last nine Tour’s. Through attrition Richard Carapaz now clearly looks like the guy.
In the GC standings Mathieu van der Poel has an eight second advantage over Julian Alaphilippe with Carapaz and Wout van Aert 31 ticks behind the leader. Wilco Kelderman is in fifth place, and Pogacar is sixth, 38 and 39 seconds off the pace. Thomas is 18th overall, 67 seconds back of van der Poel, and Roglic is in 20th position at this point, 95 seconds back.
Tuesday’s trek between Redon to Fougères has a familiar finish. In 2015 Cavendish held off André Greipel and Sagan on a very similar course. A bunch sprint seems very likely on Tuesday, but we expected a lot more competition on Monday too, and crashes limited the field who battled it out.
Let’s look through some top options for Stage 4.
The Favorite
Merlier was very competitive with Ewan last year at the Tour, and came into this year’s race in terrific form.
Not only did Merlier win a stage at this year’s Giro d’Italia, he took five one day races. With Ewan gone, Merlier should ride confidently on Tuesday, though he may face more fierce competition near the finish line.
Contenders
Arnaud Démare was involved in a crash on Monday, but seems to have emerged without major problems. He should be in position to make a run in Stage 4.
Demare won La Roue Tourangelle, and Boucles de la Mayenne this year. Seven times he has won grand tour stages.
Cavendish was fortunate to stay upright on Monday, and his bike was in rough shape after he was positioned just behind a crash late in Monday’s stage. Because of the traffic he was unable to challenge Merlier, but there is no doubt he’ll be cranked up for Stage 4.
A 30-time Tour de France stage winner, Cavendish is not what he used to be, but he did take four stages at the Tour of Turkey this year.
This is just the third grand tour for Philipsen. The 23-year-old took a stage at the Vuelta a España last year.
Philipsen won two stages at the Tour of Turkey this year, and captured April’s Scheldeprijs.
Longshots
Sagan may need a less straightforward course at this stage in his career, but the price is tempting. If his health is ok after Monday’s crash, Sagan has won 12 stages of the Tour.
Sagan continues to be in good form. He won the Points Classification at the Giro a couple months back.
Sonny Colbrelli was involved in the incident with Roglic on Monday. He did not feel like he was the instigator, and should be in the mix for a Stage 4 sprint.
A veteran, Colbrelli is having among his best years. He took the Italian National Title this year, and won the Points Classification at the Critérium du Dauphiné and Tour de Romandi.
Dave Friedman has covered professional and college sports for two decades. From ESPN to the Associated Press, Regional Sports Networks, Metro Networks, and many local outlets, he has written about and broadcast major and minor events throughout the country.
