UFC 196 Betting – Diaz Steps in to Battle McGregor at 170

Conor McGregor (-255; 5/2) vs. Nate Diaz (+245; 2/5)

Four months ago, Conor McGregor (19-2) unified the UFC’s featherweight belts in record-breaking fashion. He was primed to snag another belt at UFC 196 (March 5 at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas) by stepping up a weight class to battle lightweight champion Rafael Dos Anjos. But Dos Anjos just pulled out of the fight due to injury, and “Notorious” is now scheduled to face Nate Diaz (18-10) at a catchweight of 170 pounds … with no belts on the line.

Bummer.

McGregor won the interim featherweight title back in July with a second-round stoppage of Chad Mendes (TKO via punches). But he became the true champ in December with a stunning 13-second knockout of the erstwhile pound-for-pound king Jose Aldo.

The win was the 14th in a row for the heavy-handed Irishman, who has amassed 17 KOs in just 21 fights.

McGregor will be looking to land similar power shots against Diaz to keep the fight from going to the ground. Diaz is one of the best grapplers in the sport; he’s a BJJ blackbelt with 11 wins via submission. Why is that such a big deal? Because both of McGregor’s two career losses have come via submission. If the fight goes to the ground, huge advantage Diaz.

But will the Stockton native be able to get it there?

McGregor is a puncher who wants to stand and trade. In order to get in close enough for the takedown, Diaz is going to have to eat some jabs, if not a power shot. Diaz has a remarkable chin, but Aldo knows full-well what can happen – and how quickly – when you creep inside McGregor’s punch radius.

What will happen if (when) a McGregor powershot lands flush remains to be seen.

If Diaz’s first takedown attempts don’t work – for whatever reason – will he be smart enough to keep trying? Or will he try to prove his toughness, as he so often does, by standing and trading with the better striker?

If this fight stays on the feet, obvious advantage McGregor. He has a two-inch disadvantage in terms of reach, but he’s also one of the most powerful strikers in the UFC and has a chin to match. Diaz has shown the ability to land his awkward jab in the past, but that’s not a punch that’s going to keep McGregor from moving forward.

Prediction: Usually, we talk about heavy-handed guys having a “puncher’s chance” when facing an obviously stronger grappler. But, in this case, it’s Diaz who has a “submitter’s chance” (if I can coin a phrase). But ring-rust is a real concern since he’s only fought once in the last year (a win decision over Michael Johnson in December). McGregor is a large man for a natural featherweight, which would make it hard for Diaz to get him to the mat on his best date. Throw in “Notorious” devastating strikes and I like the Irishman to leave Diaz in a foggy dew.

(Photo credit: Andrius Petrucenia [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)