Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Odds, Picks, Predictions & Player Props
By Sascha Paruk in WNBA
Published:
- Two 8-8 teams meet on Thursday when the Las Vegas Aces visit the Indiana Fever
- Indiana’s Caitlyn Clark (groin) has been ruled out for a fourth straight game
- See the Aces vs Fever odds, picks, predictions, and player props for Thursday, July 3rd
The Las Vegas Aces (8-8, 3-4 away, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 O/U) visit the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever (8-8, 4-4 home, 8-8 ATS, 7-9 O/U) on Thursday night at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:00 pm ET and, despite just winning the Commissioner’s Cup without their best player, the Fever are sizable home underdogs to the Aces tonight.
Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Odds
The Aces are currently 4.5-point road favorites and the -115 price indicates that number could be on the rise. On the moneyline, Las Vegas is priced at -195 to win straight-up, which amounts to a 66.10% implied win probability. The Fever come back as +162 home underdogs (38.17% implied win probability) while the game total is sitting at 162.5 with -110 odds each way.
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Despite what tonight’s odds say, oddsmakers see Indiana as a bigger title threat in the WNBA championship odds.
Safe to say not many pundits expected both these teams to be hovering around .500 midway through the season. The Aces have finished with a win percentage of .652 or better every season since 2019, winning back-to-back titles 2022-2023. A’ja Wilson (21.1 PPG, 9.8 RPG, 3.8 APG), the three-time WNBA MVP, is still producing at a high clip, but the team clearly misses Kelsey Plum, who was dealt to Los Angeles and is having a career-best season with the Sparks.
Las Vegas went from having a +5.5 point differential last season to -1.1 so far in 2025. Yes, Wilson has missed three games, but the Aces are still just 6-5 straight-up with the reigning MVP in the lineup.
The Aces did manage to beat the Fever (with Clark in the lineup) on June 22nd in Las Vegas, 89-81. The Fever led by three after three quarters but faded down the stretch in a tough road environment. Clark was just 1-of-10 from beyond the arc in the loss.
Wilson had a team-high 24 points in the win, while Aliyah Boston led the Fever with a game-high 26 points on 12-of-19 shooting.
Aces vs Fever Player Props
Player props from bet365.
Wilson, per usual, has the highest point total on the board at 21.5 O/U. With Clark out, Kelsey Mitchell (18.9 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.9 APG) has the highest point total on the Fever side at 18.5 O/U.
Wilson also has the highest rebound total at 9.5 O/U, followed closely by Indiana’s Aliyah Boston (15.9 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 3.6 APG) at 8.5 O/U.
Las Vegas point guard Chelsea Gray (13.9 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.3 APG) leads the assists props at 4.5 O/U.
Las Vegas Aces vs Indiana Fever Picks & Prediction
- Fever moneyline (+164) at DraftKings
- Boston over 14.5 points (-122) at FanDuel
The Fever have won two straight without Clark, including their best win of the season over the WNBA-leading Lynx in the Commissioner’s Cup final on Tuesday (74-59). That game marked Minnesota’s first loss at home this season, and just third overall.
Crucially, the 6’5 Boston and 6’3 Natasha Howard give Indiana a massive interior presence to, at the very least, make Wilson work for her points and rebounds. Despite sitting at .500 in the win/loss column, the Fever have an excellent +4.0 point differential, a 6.7-point improvement over last season (when they finished 20-20). The biggest difference has been their defense. After allowing 87.7 PPG last year, second-worst in the WNBA, they are surrendering just 80.1 PPG this season. That’s still not an elite number and is in the bottom half of the league, but it’s also a quantum leap season-over-season.
When these teams met in Las Vegas two weeks ago, Wilson scored 24 points but was an ugly 8-of-21 from the field.
Las Vegas is still being priced like the dominant force they were in 2022 and 2023. They took a step back last season, finishing fourth overall, and their offseason moves clearly haven’t paid off, exemplified not just by their win/loss record, but more so by their negative point differential.
Boston has been thriving at both ends of the court, averaging 17.8 PPG over her last six games along with 9.5 RPG. With Clark still out, I expect Boston’s usage to remain high, which is why I’m also targeting the over on her point total. Note that it’s listed at 15.5 (with the over favored at -125) at bet365, but is a whole point lower at FanDuel with better odds (-122). She poured in 26 in the first meeting with the Aces this season. Don’t be surprised if she’s over 20 again tonight.
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Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
