Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks, Player Props & Closing Odds (Game 2)

• The Minnesota Lynx are big home favorites over the Phoenix Mercury in Game 2 of their best-of-five series
• The Lynx won and covered as 9.5-point chalk in the opener, but the line has shrunk for Game 2
• See the Mercury vs Lynx player props, picks, and betting odds for Game 2 on Sep. 23rd in Minnesota

The Minnesota Lynx (34-10, 20-2 home, 26-19-1 ATS) can put the Phoenix Mercury (27-17, 12-10 away, 23-23-1 ATS) on the brink of elimination tonight when the teams meet in Game 2 of their best-of-five second-round series at the Target Center in Minneapolis (6:30 pm CT/7:30 pm ET).

The Mercury put up a good fight for three quarters in Game 1 (the game was tied 59-59 after 30 minutes), but were distanced in the fourth during an 82-69 setback.

Below, I have set out the best available PHX/MIN Game 2 odds for both sides of the spread, moneyline, and total, along with the full list of player props and, lastly, my Mercury vs Lynx picks and prediction for Game 2.

Jump to: Game 2 Odds | Player Props | Picks

Mercury vs Lynx Betting Odds (Game 2)

The best available point spread for Phoenix bettors is +7.5 (-115), which is available at ESPN. Bet365 has the best ATS number for Minnesota bettors: -7.0 (-110). On the moneyline, bettors won’t find better than -313 for the Lynx at BetMGM, while ESPN Bet has the longest odds on a Phoenix upset at +280.

The game total shows a full one-point range with BetMGM offering the best over option (O 158.2 at -112) and ESPN Bet offering the bets under option (U 159.5 at -115).

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The Lynx have improved to -280 in the WNBA championship odds, which is not only a product of winning Game 1 against Phoenix, but also Vegas losing as a heavy favorite in Game 1 of the other semifinal against shorthanded Indiana. Phoenix is a +1800 longshot to win its fourth WNBA title and first since 2014.

Veteran point guard Courtney Williams (13.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 6.2 APG) was the hero of Game 1 for Minnesota, scoring a game-high 23 points with eight rebounds and seven assists, going an efficient 11-of-19 from the floor. Napheesa Collier (22.9 PPG, 7.3 PRG, 3.2 APG), who just lost a close MVP race to A’ja Wilson, added 18 points and nine rebounds on 50% shooting.

The Mercury wasted another stat-stuffing performance from point-forward Alyssa Thomas (15.4 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 9.2 APG), who finished with 18 points, eight rebounds, seven assists in a losing effort on Sunday. Two-guard Kahleah Copper (15.6 PPG, 2.9 RPG, 1.5 APG) had a team-high 23 points but was just 10-of-23 from the floor.

A 3-of-13 effort from beyond the arc (13%) and -10 rebound differential was the Mercury’s undoing. Phoenix finished with a 54-40 edge in the paint.

PHX Mercury vs MIN Lynx Player Props for Game 2

WNBA player props from DraftKings as of 12:58 pm ET. Read SBD’s DraftKings review to find the latest promo codes and bonuses.

Collier leads the point totals at 21.5 O/U. No other player is over 15.5. As usual, the Mercury’s three leading scorers – Thomas, Copper, and Satou Sabally (16.3 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 2.5 APG) – are all bunched together between 14.5 and 15.5 points.

Thomas has the highest rebound total (8.5 O/U) and assist total (8.5 O/U) in Game 2, and likely will for each game of the series.

Phoenix Mercury vs Minnesota Lynx Picks & Prediction

• Mercury moneyline (+270) at ESPN Bet
• Thomas over 15.5 points (-110) at DraftKings

While the Mercury didn’t even manage to cover as 9.5-point underdogs in Game 1, I still liked what I saw from Nate Tibbetts’ team. They have a clear advantage on the glass and, if they had shot closer to their 34.0 three-point percentage from the regular season, might be up 1-0 in this series right now.

They aren’t a great rebounding team (49.5 REB%) but neither are the Lynx (49.9 REB%) and, if they’re shooting better from the floor, the rebound discrepancy from Game 1 will take care of itself. (The Mercury were only -1 in offensive rebounds.)

Perimeter shooting can be a highly variable stat from game to game. The Lynx, who led the WNBA with a 37.8 3P% in the regular season, have shot 31% or worse in two of their three postseason games to date.

The Mercury only need a 28% win probability for their +270 moneyline to be a +EV wager, which is too long for a team this deep and this talented, regardless of Minnesota’s 20-2 SU record at home this year.

I’m also targeting Thomas over 15.5 points tonight. She’s averaging 16.8 PPG in four postseason games, and that’s despite an ugly 43.9 FG% (down from 53.2% in the regular season). She’s calling her own number a lot more in the playoffs (16.3 FGA/game compared to just 11.6 FGA/game in the regular season) and I don’t expect that to stop on Tuesday in light of her potential to find repeat success in the post.