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Updated 2021 WNBA Championship Odds After Thursday’s Draft – Seattle Remains Heavy Favorite

Chris Amberley

by Chris Amberley in WNBA

Updated Apr 16, 2021 · 11:43 AM PDT

A'ja Wilson is defended by two Seattle players
Las Vegas Aces center A'ja Wilson (22) sets up for a shot between Seattle Storm guard Jewell Loyd, left, and center Mercedes Russell, right, during the first half of Game 2 of basketball's WNBA Finals, Sunday, Oct. 4, 2020, in Bradenton, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)
  • Defending champion Seattle is a +175 favorite to win the 2021 WNBA Championship, followed by Washington and Las Vegas
  • The Aces, who finished second in 2020, made big moves in free agency and are returning two key players who missed all of last season
  • See the latest championship odds following the WNBA Draft, plus a pick to win the title

The Dallas Wings made history on Thursday night, making the first and second overall selections in the 2021 WNBA Draft, while also making the fifth pick just for good measure. A number of shrewd trades over the past couple years earned the Wings four first round selections in this year’s draft, one of which they traded away to LA on Wednesday.

Dallas has now made six first round selections in the past two drafts, yet the wealth of young talent hasn’t made oddsmakers any more bullish on them.

2021 WNBA Championship Odds

Team Odds at DraftKings
Seattle Storm +175
Washington Mystics +300
Las Vegas Aces +350
LA Sparks +500
Phoenix Mercury +1000
Chicago Sky +1400
Minnesota Lynx +1600
New York Liberty +5000
Atlanta Dream +6000
Dallas Wings +6000
Indiana Fever +8000

Odds as of April 15th.

The Wings have the second longest odds to win the WNBA Championship, ahead of only Indiana. The 2021 season gets underway on May 14th, but note Connecticut’s odds are not currently on the board.

Is Dallas Being Overlooked?

Dallas used their top three picks on Thursday, to draft a pair of 6-5 front court players, and a gritty scorer. With the number one overall pick, they selected center Charli Collier out of Texas, who averaged a double-double (19 pts, 11 reb) for the Longhorns, and will be a force in the post.

Joining her down low for the foreseeable future, will be Awak Kuier, the number two pick from Finland. Kuier is raw, but has already drawn comparisons to a young Candace Parker, and will form Dallas’ twin towers along with Collier. At number five, the Wings took Chelsea Dungee, who averaged 22.3 points per game at Arkansas.

Dungee should take some scoring pressure off the WNBA’s leading scorer Arike Ogunbowale, and gives Dallas another weapon to try to keep pace with the league’s heavyweights. The Wings ranked seventh in points per game in 2020, 11th in field-goal percentage, and 10th from beyond the arc.

As bleak as those offensive numbers are, they were even worse defensively. Dallas ranked 10th in points against, and 11th in opponent field-goal percentage. The addition of Collier in particular should help at the defensive end, and while a playoff berth for the Wings this year is realistic, they’re still a long way away from threatening the top-tier teams.

Seattle Is a Worthy Favorite

At the top of the odds board lies defending champion Seattle. The Storm selected shooting guard Aaliyah Wilson with their first selection, and then promptly traded her to the Fever for guard Kennedy Burke. The two-year veteran has averaged 5.5 points and 1.6 rebounds in her career, but put up two big games against Seattle in 2020, averaging 20 points in those outings.

Burke joins a loaded Storm roster, that returns three 2020 All-Stars in Breanna Stewart, Jewell Loyd and Sue Bird. Seattle did lose Alysha Clark, one of the league’s top two-way players, to Washington over the offseason, but plugged that hole by inking Candice Dupree.

The seven-time All-Star is the WNBA’s fifth leading scorer and rebounder, and alongside two-time Finals MVP Stewart, will form one of the league’s premier front courts.

Seattle was a statistical darling in 2020, leading the league defensively in points allowed, opponent field-goal percentage, and steals. Offensively, they averaged the second most points per outing, and were the WNBA’s second most efficient three-point shooting squad.

There’s no reason to think they won’t be one of the last teams left competing for a championship, however there’s one other squad that is being severely undervalued in the futures market.

Las Vegas Loaded With Talent

That of course is Las Vegas, who finished runner-up to Seattle in 2020 despite missing some pretty impactful players.  The Aces didn’t have star center Liz Cambage (personal) or 2017 number one overall pick Kelsey Plum (Achilles) for the entire season, while two-time reigning 6th woman of the year Dearica Hamby sat out the Finals with a knee injury.

All three are expected back this season, and Las Vegas bolstered its front court in the draft. They selected Iliana Rupert with the 12th pick, giving them a backup to Cambage, and a talented center for the future.

The Aces also made a splash in free agency this offseason, by signing All-Star point guard Chelsea Gray and sharpshooter Riquana Williams, both from LA.

Las Vegas’ roster also includes reigning MVP A’ja Wilson, five-time All-Star Angel McCoughtry and 2019 number one overall pick Jackie Young. They are absolutely loaded from top to bottom, yet have odds twice as long as Seattle to win the title.

This was the league’s highest scoring and best rebounding team in 2020, and a top-three scoring defense. Given their offseason acquisitions, and the key returnees who were absent last season, the Aces are an absolute steal at +350.

Pick: Las Vegas Aces (+350)

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