2018 NFL Strength of Schedule Calculated Properly
- How should we be calculating strength of schedule in the NFL?
- See how all 32 teams rank in terms of strength of schedule using the proper calculation
- Looking for the current year’s strength of schedule numbers?
For too long we have wasted our time reading articles that use each team’s record from the previous season to calculate strength of schedule for the upcoming season. Stop this! There are far too many flaws involved in this method.
This is how we should be doing it.
2018 NFL Strength of Scheduled Based on Projected Win Totals
| Rank | Team | Projected Wins of 2018 Opponents | 2018 Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 135.5 | 3-13 |
| 2 | New York Giants | 133 | 5-11 |
| 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 133 | 5-11 |
| 4 | Washington Redskins | 132.5 | 7-9 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 132 | 10-6 |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | 131.5 | 7-8-1 |
| 7 | Detroit Lions | 131.5 | 6-10 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 131.5 | 13-3 |
| 9 | New Orleans Saints | 131.5 | 13-3 |
| 10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 131 | 12-4 |
| 11 | Buffalo Bills | 130 | 6-10 |
| 12 | Chicago Bears | 130 | 12-4 |
| 13 | Dallas Cowboys | 130 | 10-6 |
| 14 | Minnesota Vikings | 130 | 8-7-1 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Eagles | 129.5 | 9-7 |
| 16 | Carolina Panthers | 129 | 7-9 |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 128.5 | 7-9 |
| 18 | Denver Broncos | 128.5 | 6-10 |
| 19 | Miami Dolphins | 128 | 7-9 |
| 20 | Cincinnati Bengals | 127.5 | 6-10 |
| 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 127.5 | 10-6 |
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | 127.5 | 9-7 |
| 23 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 127 | 5-11 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 127 | 9-6-1 |
| 25 | Baltimore Ravens | 126.5 | 10-6 |
| 26 | San Francisco 49ers | 126.5 | 4-12 |
| 27 | Green Bay Packers | 126 | 6-9-1 |
| 28 | New York Jets | 126 | 4-12 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | 124.5 | 4-12 |
| 30 | Los Angeles Chargers | 123.5 | 12-4 |
| 31 | New England Patriots | 122.5 | 11-5 |
| 32 | Houston Texans | 121.5 | 11-5 |
Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 denotes the easiest 2018 schedule.
Using 2018 projected win totals, we came up with our own strength of schedule by adding the projected wins of each team’s 16 opponents this season.
Results
The Texans had it the easiest based on either SOS method, and they easily cleared their own 2018 win total of 8.5. The same goes for the Chargers, whose win total was set at 9.5. New England pushed on their’s.
The three teams with the most difficult schedules based on our method – Arizona, New York (Giants), and Tampa Bay – all went under their own projected win totals.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
