2019 NFL Strength of Schedule Calculated Properly
- Look back at all 32 teams’ strength of schedule for the 2019 NFL season, using a proper method to calculate it
- See how scheduling affected each team’s results
- Looking for current NFL strength of schedule?
Instead of using the previous season’s records to calculate strength of schedule, SBD uses opening win totals to determine how difficult/easy all 32 teams’ schedules will be the upcoming season.
Here’s what the 2019 NFL season SOS looked like:
*Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 is the easiest.
2019 NFL SOS Based on Win Totals
| Rank | Team | Projected Wins of 2019 Opponents | 2019 Record | Win Total Result (O/U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Texans | 138.5 | 10-6 | OVER |
| 2 | Denver Broncos | 138 | 7-9 | PUSH |
| 3 | Oakland Raiders | 136.5 | 7-9 | OVER |
| 4 | Atlanta Falcons | 135.5 | 7-9 | UNDER |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 135.5 | 8-8 | UNDER |
| 6 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 135 | 7-9 | OVER |
| 7 | Tennessee Titans | 135 | 9-7 | OVER |
| 8 | Carolina Panthers | 134.5 | 5-11 | UNDER |
| 9 | Kansas City Chiefs | 134.5 | 12-4 | OVER |
| 10 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 133.5 | 6-10 | UNDER |
| 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 133 | 10-6 | OVER |
| 12 | Arizona Cardinals | 132.5 | 5-10-1 | PUSH |
| 13 | New Orleans Saints | 132 | 13-3 | OVER |
| 14 | Seattle Seahawks | 132 | 11-5 | OVER |
| 15 | Detroit Lions | 131.5 | 3-12-1 | UNDER |
| 16 | Indianapolis Colts | 131 | 7-9 | UNDER |
| 17 | Los Angeles Chargers | 131 | 5-11 | UNDER |
| 18 | Green Bay Packers | 130.5 | 13-3 | OVER |
| 19 | San Francisco 49ers | 130 | 13-3 | OVER |
| 20 | Miami Dolphins | 129.5 | 5-11 | OVER |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys | 128.5 | 8-8 | UNDER |
| 22 | Washington Redskins | 128.5 | 3-13 | UNDER |
| 23 | Baltimore Ravens | 128 | 14-2 | OVER |
| 24 | Cincinnati Bengals | 127.5 | 2-14 | UNDER |
| 25 | Los Angeles Rams | 127.5 | 9-7 | UNDER |
| 26 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 127 | 8-8 | UNDER |
| 27 | New York Giants | 124.5 | 4-12 | UNDER |
| 28 | Buffalo Bills | 123 | 10-6 | OVER |
| 29 | Philadelphia Eagles | 123 | 9-7 | UNDER |
| 30 | Cleveland Browns | 122.5 | 6-10 | UNDER |
| 31 | New York Jets | 121 | 7-9 | UNDER |
| 32 | New England Patriots | 117.5 | 12-4 | OVER |
All calculations were based off opening win totals from April, 2019.
The 2019 NFL season was a weird one. Many impactful players, specifically quarterbacks, saw their seasons cut short, and the absences played major roles in the outcome of the season.
Houston, Jacksonville, and Tennessee’s respective schedules got a lot easier once Andrew Luck announced his retirement in late-August, leaving Jacoby Brissett as the Colts’ starting QB in 2019.
Injuries – or illnesses in the Jets’ case – hurt a lot of the teams with easier schedules:
- the Jets came up one win shy of hitting the over on their win total, and they may have gotten there if Sam Darnold didn’t miss three games with mono;
- the Eagles needed 11 wins to hit their over, coming up two games short. But had their receiving corps stayed healthy, it’s hard to say they don’t flip those losses to the Lions and Dolphins into wins;
- the Steelers also only got two games from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger before an elbow injury forced them to turn their offense over to Mason Rudolph/Devlin Hodges.
After working in TV, Matt turned his focus towards numbers, specifically odds. He has been with us since 2016 and serves as SBD's Editor-in-Chief, credited with creating our futures trackers, SBD's score predictor, SBD Sharp, and his own model for calculating NFL SOS, among other products.
