2020 NFL Strength of Schedule Calculated Properly

• Look back at all 32 teams’ SOS for the 2020 NFL season
• See how easy/difficult schedules affected each team’s season results
• Looking for current NFL strength of schedule?

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Instead of using the flawed method of previous season’s records to calculate strength of schedule, SportsBettingDime uses win totals to determine how difficult/easy all 32 teams’ schedules will be each season.

Here’s what the 2020 NFL season SOS looked like:

Note: 1 is the most difficult, while 32 denotes the easiest 2020 schedule.

Using average 2020 NFL win totals, we have come up with our own strength of schedule by adding the projected wins of each team’s 16 opponents this season.

Overall, 16 teams went over their win total, 14 went under, and two pushed. Our SOS model performed very well in predicting which teams would go over/under in 2020. Here are some of the high-level notes:

• Looking to the five teams with the most difficult schedules in 2020, four went under and one pushed – betting $100 on each would have won you $362.77
• Looking to the five teams with the easiest schedules in 2020, four went over and one went under – betting $100 on each would have won you $333.30
• The under was 9-6-1 on teams in the top half of the SOS table, or the 16 most difficult schedules
• The over was 10-5-1 on teams in the bottom half of the SOS table, or the 16 easiest schedules

We also provided an update to these numbers following Week 1. You can see those below.

Updated NFL SOS After Week 1

With sportsbooks releasing updated win totals after Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season, we’ve updated the SOS for the remaining 15 games. The Falcons still have it the toughest the rest of the way, but the Browns are back to having the easiest schedule – they had the easiest when win totals first opened as well.

The mean SOS based on win totals for the final 15 games is 120

Some teams who experienced significant change in their strength of schedule after Week 1 include:

• New Orleans Saints: went from ninth-toughest to 27th-toughest
• Arizona Cardinals: went from 15th-toughest to 28th-toughest
• Indianapolis Colts: went from the easiest schedule to 15th-easiest
• Tennessee Titans: went from second-easiest to 14th-easiest
• Los Angeles Rams: went from seventh-toughest to 17th-toughest
• Philadelphia Eagles: went from the 11th-toughest to the second-toughest
• Pittsburgh Steelers: went from 24th-toughest to 16th-toughest

Of course, some of the movement in ranking above is a result of their Week 1 opponent being out of the way, and that game being particularly easy/tough.

You can see what the SOS numbers were prior to kickoff below.

2020 NFL SOS Based on Win Totals

*Win totals were updated on May 7

The average projected wins of 2020 opponents is 129.3, while the variance is 10.2.

Toughest 2020 Schedule

For the second straight season, the Texans appeared to face the most difficult schedule in the league. It was lighter than last year, when their opponents combined for 138.5 wins, but they lost that title after a crazy free agency period that saw many big-name players on the move.

The Giants then faced the toughest schedule in the league after free agency. Their opponents picked up five extra wins after free agency. The Eagles and Rams also saw their schedules get significantly tougher after free agency, as their respective opponents added four wins through free agency.

However, after the NFL released the 2020 schedule, the Falcons now face the toughest schedule in the league.

Easiest 2020 Schedule

When win totals opened, the Browns were expecting to face the lightest schedule in the league, with just 126.5 combined wins for their opponents. But their foes picked up some extra wins after free agency, increasing their difficulty by a few games.

The Chargers took over the title of having the easiest schedule after free agency, as their opponents’ projected wins fell from 128 to 127.

After the NFL Draft and release of the 2020 schedule, the Colts now have, by far, the easiest schedule in the NFL. Their opponents are only projected to win 122.3 games combined, 2.5 games less than the Titans, who have the second-easiest.

1st Half SOS

*Again, number 1 denotes the toughest schedule, while 32 is the easiest.

The Raiders possess the toughest first eight games of the season, while the Jaguars have it very easy. The average here is 64.6 with a variance of 11.4.

As a bettor, you should be using this information to help determine whether the price you’re getting on a futures bet for the latest NFL odds is the best value you’ll find.

For example, if you wanted to bet the Jaguars to miss the playoffs this season, it’s important to know they could win a few games out of the gate, potentially resulting in their odds to make the playoffs improving, and their odds to miss worsening. So you’d want to consider waiting to make this bet to hold out for a better price.

The same goes for betting division winners. You may love the Texans to win the AFC South, but could get a better price on the bet if you hold out until they get through their first four games – Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and Vikings. It’s likely they lose a couple of those, if not more, meaning you could get a better price later.

The opposite is true for a team like the Cowboys, who have the sixth-easiest first half of the season. If you like them to win the NFC East, you probably want to bet them now before their odds shorten.

2nd Half SOS

*Again, number 1 denotes the toughest schedule, while 32 is the easiest.

The Falcons have a grueling final eight games of the season, while the Steelers have it the easiest down the stretch. The average here is 64.7 with a variance of 11.2.

Everything we discussed above should also consider each team’s strength of schedule over the second half of the season. For example, if you want to bet the Steelers to make the playoffs this season, it’s important to note they start the season with the fifth-toughest first eight games, but have the easiest second half in the league.