2021 NFL MVP Odds Tracker

• Packers QB Aaron Rodgers won the 2021 NFL MVP award
• Look back to see how the NFL MVP odds changed throughout the 2021-22 NFL season
• Looking for the latest NFL MVP odds?

The 2021 NFL MVP award was handed out at the 2022 NFL Honors, held on February 10. Aaron Rodgers won the NFL MVP award for the 2021-22 NFL season, his second straight year winning the NFL MVP.

However, Rodgers was not the favorite to win the NFL MVP for very long during the regular season. His NFL MVP odds opened at +2200 and he was never favored to win the award until December 29. You can look back at the 2021 NFL MVP odds in the graphs below, and see the notes on why the lines moved under the graph.

2021 NFL MVP Odds

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The 2021-22 NFL MVP award will be handed out Thursday, February 10. No sportsbooks offered odds to win the award since January 10, which is when the 2021-22 NFL regular season ended.

Based on the odds at closing, it appeared Aaron Rodgers would win the award, as he closed a heavy -500 odds-on favorite. The odds were correct! Aaron Rodgers won the NFL MVP for the second straight season.

Odds to Win 2021 NFL MVP

*Odds updated January 10

Here are some notes on the NFL MVP odds movement:

• [February 10] Aaron Rodgers was named the 2021-22 NFL MVP at the NFL Honors, beating out Tom Brady for the award. Rodgers has won the award in back-to-back seasons now.
• [January 10] Aaron Rodgers saw his NFL MVP odds improve from -400 to -500 after Week 18. Joe Burrow’s odds faded from +1000 to +2500 after he sat out the Bengals final regular season game.
• [January 3] Joe Burrow saw his NFL MVP odds improve from +3500 to +1000, the third-best odds on the board, after throwing for 446 yards and four touchdowns in a Week 17 win over the Chiefs. Aaron Rodgers remains the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP, though, and his odds improved from -175 to -400.
• [December 27] Aaron Rodgers has moved to the odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP after throwing for 202 yards and three touchdowns in Week 16. Jonathan Taylor now has the second-best NFL MVP odds, overtaking Tom Brady. The Bucs’ QB saw his odds fade from +200 to +750 after only throwing for one touchdown against the Panthers on Sunday. Matthew Stafford saw his odds go from +1000, fourth-best entering the weekend, to +5000 after throwing three interceptions against the Vikings.
• [December 20] Aaron Rodgers is the new favorite to win NFL MVP. The reigning league MVP saw his odds improve from +500 to +125 after throwing for 268 yards and three touchdowns in a win over the Ravens in Baltimore. Tom Brady’s NFL MVP odds slipped from -175 to +175 after his Buccaneers were shutout by the Saints in Week 15. Brady accounted for two turnovers in the game: one interception and one fumble lost. Kyler Murray and Dak Prescott both saw their NFL MVP odds fade significantly after the two struggled again on Sunday, opening up a lane for Jonathan Taylor to jump into the top five contenders.
• [December 13] For the first time this season, we have an odds-on favorite to win NFL MVP. After Tom Brady led the Bucs to an overtime win over the Bills in Week 14, throwing for 363 yards and two touchdowns, and saw his NFL MVP odds improve from +175 to -150. Josh Allen, who had been a top contender basically all season, saw his odds fade from +1000 to +2000, dropping him out of the top seven contenders.
• [December 7] Josh Allen was faced with battling some of the worst weather we’ve seen in Week 13, and his Bills fell to the Patriots in a crucial Week 13 matchup. As a result, Allen’s NFL MVP odds faded from +500, which were second-best heading into the weekend, to +1000, the fourth-best.
• [November 29] Aaron Rodgers saw his NFL MVP odds improve from +1000 to +600 after taking down the LA Rams in Week 12. As a result, Matthew Stafford saw his odds to win NFL MVP fade from +1000 to +1600.
• [November 22] After another game where he threw two interceptions, this time against the Colts, Josh Allen is no longer the favorite to win NFL MVP. Tom Brady now has the best NFL MVP odds after picking apart the Giants for 307 yards and two touchdowns. Jonathan Taylor’s five-touchdown performance against the Bills saw his odds improve from +10000 to +2000, putting him among the top ten contenders.
• [November 15] Patrick Mahomes finally looked like himself against the Raiders on Sunday Night Football, passing for 406 yards and five touchdowns in a 41-14 rout. His MVP odds improved from +6500 to +1800. But favorite Josh Allen also put up big numbers against the Jets (366 yards, two touchdowns), shortening his odds from +350 to +250.
• [November 8] Week 9 was not kind to NFL MVP favorites. Josh Allen, who was the lone favorite entering the week, Matthew Stafford, and Dak Prescott all struggled mightily, with the first two throwing multiple interceptions. Aaron Rodgers and Kyler Murray did not play due to COVID-19 and injury, respectively. Lamar Jackson played a good game, seeing him move back into the top five contenders. Tom Brady’s NFL MVP odds also benefitted thanks to his Bucs being on bye. Brady is now listed as the co-favorite alongside Josh Allen.
• [November 1] Josh Allen is breaking away from the pack in NFL MVP odds. The Bills QB now has odds as short as +200 at some sportsbooks. Both Dak Prescott, thanks to sitting out Week 8 with an injury, and Kyler Murray, who lost to the Packers, saw their NFL MVP odds worsen. Derrick Henry is also potentially out of the running for NFL MVP as he awaits confirmation on the severity of his foot injury.
• [October 25] While on bye, Josh Allen became the favorite to win NFL MVP again. It’s not that Kyler Murray or Matthew Stafford played poorly, but they didn’t have the huge performances many expected considering their Week 7 opponents. Injury concerns around Dak Prescott would be to blame for his odds fading slightly. Surprisingly, we haven’t seen Tom Brady’s NFL MVP odds improve much, in spite of him leading the league in both passing yards and touchdowns. Joe Burrow and Derek Carr saw their odds imopove significantly after eye-catching performances in Week 7. Patrick Mahomes is no longer among the top ten contenders after an awful outing against the Titans.
• [October 19] Josh Allen is no longer the favorite to win the NFL MVP after his Bills were upset by the Titans in Week 6. Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray are now tied for the best odds to win NFL MVP. Derrick Henry is now among the top ten contenders after rushing for 143 yards and three touchdowns in Week 6. The Titans running back now has 725 rushing yards in his last five games.
• [October 11] Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds have faded all the way to +2000 as the Chiefs lost their third game of the season in Week 5. Mahomes is not even among the top five contenders anymore. Josh Allen has taken over as the favorite after Kyler Murray had a bit of a quiet week.
• [October 4] Kyler Murray has broken away from the pack after Week 4, where he led his Cardinals to an upset win over the Rams. On the other side, Matthew Stafford saw his NFL MVP odds fade after the bad loss. Dak Prescott continues to see his odds improve, making a large jump after throwing four touchdowns against the Panthers in Week 4.
• [September 27] For the first time this year, Patrick Mahomes is not the favorite to win NFL MVP. Depending where you look, any of Kyler Murray, Tom Brady, Josh Allen, or Matthew Stafford have better odds to win NFL MVP after Mahomes’ Chiefs dropped their second straight game of the season.
• [September 20] Some sportsbooks are listing Kyler Murray the co-favorite in their NFL MVP odds after he threw for 400 yards and three touchdowns, adding one more on the ground, in a win over the Vikings in Week 2. Derek Carr is also seeing significant movement in his NFL MVP odds, as he’s now a top ten contender after he has the Raiders off to a 2-0 start with wins over the Ravens and Steelers to start the season.
• [September 14] After Week 1, Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray saw their NFL MVP odds improve significantly, both jumping into the top five contenders, pushing Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen out. Jalen Hurts and Jameis Winston also saw their NFL MVP odds improve after strong Week 1 performances. All of Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, and Ryan Tannehill plummeted down the board after rough games to open the 2021 NFL season.
• [September 9] Ahead of the 2021 NFL season kickoff, Russell Wilson’s NFL MVP odds have shortened from an average of +1733 to +1550, putting him among the top five contenders. Dak Prescott’s odds have taken a small hit prior to Dallas’ trip to Tampa Bay to take on the defending champs.
• [August 23] Despite concerns over Dak Prescott not being fully healthy, the Cowboys QB has seen his NFL MVP odds remain a little longer than 15-1. Carson Wentz’ odds haven’t seen any major movement, either. The Colts QB is back on the practice field and looking like he might not miss any time due to his foot surgery.
• [June 14] Patrick Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds continue to shorten, now reaching an average of +488. Aaron Rodgers’ odds, on the other hand, have started to fade as the possibility of the reigning MVP sitting out for the season becomes more and more real. Deshaun Watson’s odds also continue to freefall with his future completely up in the air. Ryan Tannehill’s NFL MVP odds have shortened from an average of +3275 to +2800 after the Titans acquired Julio Jones, giving Tannehill two very good options on the outside with Jones and AJ Brown.
• [May 3] No player saw their NFL MVP odds improve more thanks to the NFL Draft than Matt Ryan. Not only did the Falcons pass on taking Ryan’s eventual successor with the fourth-overall pick, but they provided their quarterback with arguably the best pass-catcher in the draft in Kyle Pitts. Ryan’s NFL MVP odds opened at +10000, were still +8000 prior to the draft, and have now improved to +4150, putting him among the top 20 contenders.
• [March 30] For very different reasons, all of Justin Herbert, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson have seen their 2021 NFL MVP odds worsen. Herbert’s odds went from +1800 to +2500, a much more reasonable price for the second-year QB. Wilson’s odds moved from +1300 to +2000 as concerns grow over how much Russ will be allowed to cook this season. Watson went from +1700 to +2500 as the current Texans signal-caller faces some very serious sexual assault allegations.
• [February 18] Carson Wentz’ NFL MVP odds have improved from +4000 to +3000 after being traded to Indianapolis, reuniting him with his old offensive coordinator Frank Reich. With Jalen Hurts locked in as the starter in Philadelphia now, his NFL MVP odds have improved from +12500 to +8000.
• [February 9] Patrick Mahomes has opened as the favorite to win the 2021 NFL MVP. Matthew Stafford has opened as a top five contender after being traded to the Los Angeles Rams, and Justin Herbert opened as a top ten contender after his promising rookie season.

Opening 2021 Odds vs 2020 Odds

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• 2020 Opening MVP Odds

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