2025-26 NFL Conference Championship Odds Tracker: Seahawks Claim NFC While Patriots Win AFC

The 2025-26 NFL season was full of shocking results! Among those were the two teams who won their respective conference championships and met in Super Bowl 60. Entering the season, it was the usual Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens listed as the top contenders in the AFC, while we saw the Eagles and Lions well above the rest of the NFC.

However, the AFC Championship was won by the Patriots, while the NFC Championship was won by the Seahawks. Both of these teams had very long odds to win their respective conference championships when odds opened. You can see both of their journeys to becoming legitimate contenders, while watching the fall of teams who were seen as top contenders below in the graphs, which contain the odds to win the AFC and NFC Championships, which I tracked from opening right through to kickoff of the Conference Championships.

If you are looking for this year’s futures, check out our current NFL conference championship odds.

AFC | NFC

2025-26 AFC Championship Odds

Thanks to Bo Nix breaking his ankle on one of the final plays of Denver’s Divisional Round win over the Bills, the Patriots entered the AFC Championship game as favorites on the road. But it took a long time for the Patriots to be recognized as a legitimate contender after they opened the season with +5000 odds to win the AFC Championship.

Even in late September, New England’s odds to win the AFC Championship were an average of +6417. Yet, they overcame the odds and won the AFC Championship, narrowly beating the Broncos.

Here are some notes on the 2025-26 AFC Championship odds movement:

• [January 13] Sportsbooks obviously believed New England drew the easier matchup in the Divisional Round (Texans), as they took over as the favorites after the Broncos drew the Bills.
• [December 30] The Bills’ loss to the Eagles in Week 17 resulted in the Broncos taking back over as the favorites to win the AFC.
• [December 23] The Broncos recorded a bad loss to the Jaguars in Week 16, resulting in Buffalo taking back over as the favorite.
• [December 16] A really solid win over the Packers in Week 15, which gave Denver a strong probability of getting homefield advantage at this time, is why the Broncos took over as the favorites to win the AFC.
• [December 9] New England was on bye in Week 14 and the Bills recorded a good win over the Bengals. This is what led to the Bills taking back over as favorites.
• [December 2] The Chiefs lost to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, which resulted in the Patriots taking over as the favorites to win the AFC for the first time this season.
• [November 25] A Bills loss to the Texans paired with the Chiefs beating the Colts in Week 12 was the cause for Kansas City taking back over as the favorite.
• [November 18] The Chiefs losing to the Broncos in Week 11 resulted in Buffalo taking back over as the favorite.
• [November 11] Buffalo’s bad loss to the Dolphins in Week 10 was the cause of them tumbling down the board, and Kansas City regaining the title of favorite.
• [November 4] After the Bills beat the Chiefs in Week 9, Buffalo regained the top spot in the AFC Championship odds.
• [October 15] With Buffalo’s record falling to 4-2 after a Week 6 loss to the Falcons, some sportsbooks started to favor the Kansas City Chiefs to win the AFC.
• [September 16] After Joe Burrow suffered what might be a season-ending turf toe injury, sportsbooks wrote the Bengals off, tanking their odds from +1080 to +2920.
• [September 9] The Bills mounted a fourth-quarter comeback against the Ravens in Week 1, which resulted in Buffalo overtaking Baltimore as the favorite to win the AFC.
• [August 20] Sportsbooks made it quite clear that they did not agree with Shane Steichen’s assessment of Daniel Jones giving Indianapolis a better chance of winning than Anthony Richardson. The Colts’ AFC Championship odds dipped from an average of +3850 to as long as +6000 after Jones was named the starter.
• [March 12] After acquiring DK Metcalf from the Seahawks, the Steelers saw their NFL Conference futures improve from +2750 to +2250. I think it’s likely we see Pittsburgh’s odds improve a little further if they manage to land Aaron Rodgers in free agency. Their top two WRs are among the best in the league, but they still need someone to distribute the ball.
• [February 21] Yet again, the Kansas City Chiefs opened as the favorites to win the AFC Championship with slightly longer than 3-1 odds. The Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills opened in the same tier as the Chiefs, both getting odds shorter than +400. There was a significant drop to the next team, the Bengals, at just shorter than +900 odds. The team with the biggest difference in opening AFC Championship odds year-over-year was the Broncos, who opened at +6000 last year, but had the seventh-best opening odds at +1733. The Jets’ odds were a lot different from last season as well, seeing just shorter than 57-1 odds this season versus their +1500 odds from last season.

2025-2 6NFC Championship Odds

While they weren’t as much of an afterthought as the Patriots in the AFC, the Seahawks were not seen as a legitimate contender in the NFC when odds opened. After their Week 1 loss to the 49ers, their odds to win the NFC faded to an average of +3700, giving them worse odds than the Bears and Cowboys.

But by the midway point of the season, Seattle had established themselves as one of the top contenders in the NFC, thanks to their stingy defense and the solid play they were getting from Sam Darnold.

The Seahawks took over as the favorites after the Rams lost to the Falcons in Week 17, removing themselves from the race for the top seed in the NFC. Seattle increased the gap between them and the field after beating the 49ers in Week 18 to clinch homefield advantage and a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Here are some notes on the 2025-26 NFC Championship odds movement:

• [December 30] The Rams’ loss to the Falcons, which cost them a chance at winning the division and claiming the top seed in the NFC, was the reason for the Seahawks taking over as the favorites following Week 17.
• [November 11] Another very impressive win by the Rams, led by another great game from QB Matthew Stafford, resulted in LA taking over as the favorites to win the NFC following Week 10.
• [November 4] While on bye, the Eagles took back over as the NFC favorites, thanks to the Lions and Packers being upset in Week 9.
• [October 21] Detroit became the NFC favorites for the first time after a dominant Week 7 win over the Buccaneers, while the Packers posted another uninspiring victory.
• [October 15] The Packers regained the favorite status after Week 6, when they beat the Bengals and the Eagles were upset by the Giants.
• [September 23] Philadelphia took back over as the favorites to win the NFC Championship after the Packers were upset by the Browns in Week 3.
• [September 16] The Packers logged another extremely impressive win in Week 2, beating the Commanders with ease, and while the Eagles did beat the Chiefs in Arrowhead, it wasn’t a very convincing one. The result was the Packers taking over as the favorites to win the NFC, marking the first time someone other than the Eagles were favored this season.
• [September 9] Green Bay’s odds got notably better after a very impressive Week 1 victory over the Lions. This movement gave them the second-best odds at the time.
• [August 29] The Packers acquiring Micah Parsons really shook up the NFC Championship odds. While the Eagles did not see much movement as the favorites, their odds did worsen a touch from +330 to +380. The Lions, who have to deal with Green Bay twice as fellow NFC North teams, saw their odds worsen from an average of +496 to as long as +700. The Packers’ odds improved from an average of +1008 to as short as +650, leaping the Rams, Commanders, and 49ers on the board.
• [July 22] Bettors must have started believing in JJ McCarthy, as Minnesota’s NFC Championship odds steadily improved from an average of +2100 back in March to an average of +1167 ahead of the preseason.
• [March 12] The LA Rams saw their NFC title odds improve from +1225 to +1050 after re-signing Matthew Stafford and adding Davante Adams in free agency. The Minnesota Vikings, on the other hand, saw their odds fade from +1600 to +2100 after losing Sam Darnold in free agency, leaving second-year pro JJ McCarthy as the projected starter at this point.
• [February 21] The Philadelphia Eagles opened as the favorites to win the NFC Championship with shorter than 3-1 odds. The Lions were a close second at opening with just longer than +400 odds. The NFC team with the biggest difference in opening odds year-over-year is the Commanders, who opened last season at 55-1 odds to win the NFC Championship, but had the fourth-best opening odds this season at +900. The 49ers were one of the bigger surprises at opening, as they were given the third-best odds in spite of missing the playoffs last season.