2025-26 NFL MVP Odds Tracker – Stafford Beats Out Maye

• Look back at the NFL MVP odds for the 2025-26 NFL season
• Matthew Stafford beat out Drake Maye to win his first MVP
• Looking for current NFL MVP odds?

The 2025-26 NFL MVP award became a two-horse race down the stretch of the regular season, with Rams QB Matthew Stafford beating out Patriots QB Drake Maye. Many of the perennial MVP contenders, like Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, and Lamar Jackson, among others, had down seasons due to injury and/or poor performance. This left the door open for some running backs and young players to enter contention for parts of the season.

While Maye put forth some fantastic competition, potentially aided by a very light regular season schedule, Stafford ultimately was voted the NFL’s Most Valuable Player for the 2025-26 NFL season. It marked Stafford’s first MVP award. But the odds did not always favor the Rams QB down the stretch. In fact, Maye was a heavy favorite to win the award heading into Week 18. You can see how the 2025-26 NFL MVP odds changed throughout the course of the season, as well as what they opened at below.

2025-26 NFL MVP Odds

Top 3 Top 10 All Contenders

Matthew Stafford closed as the favorite to win the 2025-26 NFL MVP with as short as -210 odds. The Rams QB took back over as the favorite after a Week 18 performance that included 259 passing yards and four touchdowns in LA’s win over the Cardinals. Drake Maye, who was the favorite entering Week 18, had a bit of a quiet game against the Dolphins, throwing for 191 yards and one touchdown – he only played about three quarters of the game.

The move back to Stafford being the favorite felt like a mix of the most recent game but also taking a step back and viewing the whole season. Here’s how the two stacked up against each other in key statistical categories:

Stafford vs Maye in 2025-26 Regular Season

Stafford had the more prolific passing season, while Maye was far more effective with his legs. However, sportsbooks obviously didn’t believe Maye was good enough with his legs to make up for the difference in passing between him and Stafford.

These were the top contenders the last time we saw odds after Week 18’s conclusion:

1. Matthew Stafford (-173 consensus odds)
2. Drake Maye (+143)
3. Trevor Lawrence (+25000)
4. Sam Darnold (+40000)
5. Josh Allen (+50000)

2025-26 NFL MVP Odds Movement

Here are some notes on the 2025-26 NFL MVP odds movement:

• [January 5] Matthew Stafford became the favorite again after a strong four-touchdown performance in Week 18. Maye, who was heavily favored entering the final week of the season, had a quiet game against the Dolphins.
• [December 30] Drake Maye used a five-touchdown performance in a dominant win over the Jets in Week 17 to take back over as the favorite. This was paired with Matthew Stafford throwing three interceptions in the Rams’ loss to the Falcons.
• [December 9] While Drake Maye was on bye, Stafford threw for 281 yards and three touchdowns in Week 14, which saw him take back over as the MVP favorite.
• [December 2] After Matthew Stafford threw two interceptions and was upset by the Panthers in Week 13, we saw Drake Maye take over as the favorite for the first time this season.
• [November 18] Though Stafford’s stats were modest, only throwing for 130 yards and two touchdowns, beating the Seahawks in Week 11 was enough to see him break away from Maye as the lone favorite.
• [November 10] Josh Allen’s horrendous Week 10 performance in Buffalo’s loss to the Dolphins resulted in Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye taking over as co-favorites.
• [November 3] After putting forth a far better performance than Mahomes in their Week 9 matchup, Josh Allen took back over as the favorite to win NFL MVP.
• [October 14] Patrick Mahomes became the new MVP favorite after a Week 6 where he threw for three touchdowns and Josh Allen, the favorite entering the week, struggled in the Bills’ loss to the Falcons.
• [September 16] Joe Burrow, who entered Week 2 with the third-best odds to win NFL MVP, was removed from the odds after suffering a turf toe injury that landed him on the IR.
• [September 9] Josh Allen overtook Lamar Jackson as the MVP favorite after the Bills’ thrilling comeback win over the Ravens on SNF of Week 1. The two QBs really separated themselves from the pack after just one week, as Patrick Mahomes was third-best on the board at a distant +1100.
• [August 29] Though the Packers adding Micah Parsons doesn’t directly help Jordan Love on offense, his MVP odds did improve from an average of +2280 to +2000 after the trade was completed. The move is the result of the Packers becoming the favorites to win the NFC North and more expected wins, which will help Love’s case. Green Bay’s QB moved into fifth on the board after being as long as +2820 in June.
• [August 15] Joe Burrow opened with the fourth-best odds to win NFL MVP, but saw his odds improve steadily to +600, tying him with Josh Allen for the second-best on the board behind Lamar Jackson.
• [April 29] We saw next to no MVP odds movement come from the NFL Draft results. There were a few players I suspected may see their odds improve: Jordan Love, Drake Maye, and Trevor Lawrence. The Packers got Love a potential new WR1 in Matthew Golden, but his odds actually worsened slightly from +2533 to +2700. The Patriots were widely viewed as a big winner in the draft, adding some protection for Maye, along with a dynamic RB who should add some extra burst. But his odds stayed the same. The Jags made arguably the draft’s most aggressive move to draft Travis Hunter, giving Lawrence another big-time receiving threat, but his odds also worsened slightly, going from +3967 to +4133.
• [March 12] Jalen Hurts’ MVP odds improved from +2250 at opening to +1833 after the first dozen days of NFL free agency. The Eagles did not sign any big-name offensive players in free agency. This movement was the result of money coming in on Hurts.
• [February 7] NFL MVP odds for the 2025-26 NFL season opened almost immediately after the past season’s award was handed out. Lamar Jackson opened as the 2025-26 NFL MVP favorite with +525 odds, just slightly better than Josh Allen’s +575 odds. It is worth mentioning that Jayden Daniels opened last season with +13000 odds to win the MVP, and opened this season with +1050 odds, the fifth-best on the board. Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes also opened with short odds, rounding out the top five contenders.

Top 2025/26 Contenders by Position

QBs Non-QBs RBs WRs & TEs

Both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jonathan Taylor had their moments in the 2025/26 season as legitimate NFL MVP contenders, but neither was able to sustain the required success to steal this award from QBs.