2026 World Cup Golden Boot Odds: Tracking the Favorites, Strategies for Top Goal Scorer Bets

There is perhaps no more appropriately named award than the Golden Boot, the prize given to the top goalscorer in the World Cup, and many other soccer competitions worldwide.

It just makes sense.

But when betting on 2026 World Cup Golden Boot odds, there is a lot to consider. And now that the World Cup features more teams than ever, there’s even more to analyze for top goalscorer picks.

Luckily, you landed here.

Golden Boot Favorites & Why They Could Win

The best US sports betting apps will all be offering markets for the top goal scorer in the World Cup. Here are the pre-tournament favorites to win the World Cup Golden Boot in 2026 according to DraftKings:

Those are some of the biggest names in the sport, and, except for Haaland, play for some of the best teams in the field.

Here’s a look at why each of the top five could win, and why they might not.

Kylian Mbappe 2026 Golden Boot Odds

Mbappe won the Golden Boot in 2022, scoring eight goals as France finished as runner-up in Qatar.

He’s one of the best goalscorers and most dynamic players in the world, and he plays on one of the tournament favorites, so it should come as no surprise that he’s the favorite. The list of reasons he should be is long:

• Chance at a deep tournament run.
• Takes penalties.
• History of performing on highest stage.
• Speed to beat any defender.
• Skill to create and take advantage of the smallest of spaces.

There’s really no good argument against Mbappe repeating here.

Harry Kane World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds

Kane won the Golden Boot in 2018, scoring six goals to lead England to a fourth-place finish. Eight years later, he’s still among the best goalscorers in the world, creatively finding pockets of dangerous space and showing off his elite finishing skills when the ball gets to him.

Like Mbappe, Kane brings the necessary history of success in the tournament and a place on a team poised to make a deep run. He’s also the primary penalty taker for England.

With players like Cole Palmer (elite PK taker) and Bukayo Saka becoming bigger parts of the England attack in recent years, there is a chance Kane is sharing opportunities. But he still has everything you’d want from a potential Golden Boot winner.

Erling Haaland Odds to Win World Cup Golden Boot

Haaland is the one outlier among the favorites, as his Norwegian team is not expected to make a deep run.

However, his elite goal-scoring prowess is enough to list him here. Remember, before he was dominating at Dortmund and Manchester City, he scored eight goals in six Champions League games for RB Salzburg. He also scored 17 goals in nine appearances for Norway in 2025.

The man just scores goals, and while France and Senegal make for a tough group, simply getting to the knockouts could give him enough games win this award.

So, if you make this bet, you will likely be hoping for an early explosion that’s enough to hold off other competitors through the final rounds of the competition.

Lionel Messi Golden Boot Odds

The GOAT is still a significant threat to pile up goals, even several years after we thought his international days were over. He will no doubt become the competition’s all-time leader in combined goals and assists this year, as he is currently tied with Pele for the mark at 21.

As the penalty and free kick taker for Argentina, the defending champs who are capable of making another deep run, the underlying variables are all still there for Messi. He’s also part of a team that continues to get better in the midfield, grooming players who seem built to set him up for success.

The big question will be if the man who turns 39 during this year’s competition can produce in this grueling month-long format. Will he sit if Argentina has the group wrapped up ahead of a third group game?

Those variables give him the odds you see, but doubting Messi hasn’t seemed to ever work out for anyone.

Lamine Yamal 2026 World Cup Top Goalscorer Odds

The brightest young star in soccer finds his way near the top of the Golden Boot odds, as he has continued to flourish at Barcelona and become more of a goal-scorer.

As Spain made its run to a 2024 Euro championship, Yamal had just one goal, but four assists as he exploded onto the world stage. He would score five goals in his next 11 games, however, growing into more of a scoring role for El Rojo.

While the talent is there and the goal-scoring prowess is emerging, Yamal has several factors working against him in the race for the Golden Boot. He does not take penalties for Spain, he has never played in a World Cup so there is no history of success in this competition, and there are people all over the field who can score for Spain.

Now, Spain’s chances to make a deep run are as good as any other team, and we’ve seen young stars shine in their first World Cup before.

Best Value & Dark Horses for 2026 World Cup Golden Boot

In a market where the favorite is getting paid out at 6-to-1 and the biggest young superstar in the game is coming in at 18-to-1, you don’t need to dig very deep to find value.

At the same time, the Golden Boot odds are wide open enough that picking a longshot isn’t as crazy as it might be in other futures markets.

There are two obvious ones right outside the top five, as you can get Cristiano Ronaldo and reigning Ballon d’Or winner Ousmane Dembele each as high as +2000. Ronaldo is still playing a big role for Portugal, a team capable of making a run. Dembele will be playing opposite of Mbappe, which could lead to more opportunities.

But they’re not all that obvious, so you might want to start with some situations, and then build from there.

• Find a top player on a Tier 2 favorite: I already covered Ronaldo and Portugal, but I haven’t mentioned any Brazilian or German players yet. Nick Woltemade is the top German in Golden Boot odds, but the Newcastle forward has struggled a bit this season. His German teammate Florian Wirtz is rounding into form with Liverpool, and you can find him as high as +5000. Brazil has so many scoring options, which might be why none of them are among the favorites. But Raphinha at +3000 is interesting.
• Look for the host nation bump: It’s no secret playing at home in the World Cup is a major advantage, so look at US, Mexican and Canadian players, all of whom have incredibly long odds. None of those three are very likely to make a deep run through the knockouts, but that’s why you can find US striker Folarin Balogun as high as +8000, and his more famous teammate Christian Pulisic at +10000. Mexican star Raul Jimenez is at +8000, and Canadian center forward Jonathan David is at +10000.

These players all have longer odds for good reasons, but a hot start could propel their teams to deeper runs, and themselves to Golden Boot leads.

Basic Strategies for Betting on Golden Boot Winner

Regardless of year, there are some basic Golden Boot betting strategies you should follow for World Cup betting:

Look for Deep Team Runs

The more matches a player appears in, the more opportunities they have to score. Because of this, you should target players who are on a team you think can make a deep World Cup run.

They don’t need to win it all, but you should always target players you think will at least be playing in the quarterfinals. In the new format, that gives them six matches (three in group play, Round of 32, Round of 16 and quarterfinals).

Penalties Count

If the player you’re targeting is the confirmed PK taker for their team, that can make a massive difference. Golden Boot standings include goals from penalties, and those are the easiest scoring chances most players will get during a match.

Beware, because who is taking the penalties is not always 100% clear ahead of the World Cup, as several players could hold the role for their club teams. Pay attention to qualifiers and warm-up matches to get a better idea in unclear situations.

Line Shop

Finding the best available odds is always recommended while betting on sports, but especially with futures markets, as the odds can vary significantly between sportsbooks.

The best soccer betting apps are all offering Golden Boot odds for the 2026 World Cup, so download as many as you can in your state to compare the odds and get the best price.