World Cup Public Betting Trends – Latest Bet & Money Percentages for 2026 World Cup

Plenty of money is sure to be wagered on the 2026 World Cup this summer, and quite a bit has already come in.

This page is tracking World Cup public betting trends and splits to see where that money is going and which international soccer teams the public is backing.

2026 World Cup Public Betting Trends

Here’s the ticket (number of bets) and handle (money wagered) breakdown at BetMGM as of Dec. 11:

Spain a Dominant Sharp & Public Favorite

Lamine Yamal and his teammates on the Spanish national team are not only listed as the pre-tournament favorite, but are also the most backed by both casual and sharp bettors.

As you can see in the chart above, Spain is drawing the largest percentage of bets at 13%, but even more of the money at 17%, indicating that the bigger money bets are coming in on El Rojo.

Following the conclusion of the 2022 World Cup, Spain was coming in around +1000 in odds to win the World Cup. A massive performance with a very young team in the 2024 Euros changed things, however, and they quickly were seen as a co-favorite at around +600.

As money has continued to come in on the team, that number has moved to +400 at BetMGM following the World Cup Draw.

France, Brazil More Sharp Than Public

Two teams that are seeing significantly more money come in on them than tickets are France and Brazil.

These are two of the more well known countries even to a casual soccer fan, so it’s a little surprising. But when you have England and the US, two heavier public teams, there’s going to be space for bets like this.

France, which was the 2022 runner-up and features one of soccer’s biggest international faces in Kylian Mbappe, is getting 14.8% of the money bet at BetMGM. While it is third in tickets at over 9%, that’s still a very wide gap, indicating sharp bettors are liking the French, who currently sit at +700 at BetMGM.

Brazil, meanwhile, is at +800 to win it all and is bringing in 9% of the handle while accounting for 6.7% of all bets. That’s right, more people have bet on the US to win the World Cup than Brazil.

World Cup Betting Splits Explained

Betting on soccer is incredibly popular worldwide. But for those who are new, here’s an explainer:

What Are Soccer Money Percentages?

Soccer money percentages are calculated by combining all of the money that has been wagered on a match. Usually, this will be separated by moneyline, spread and totals wagers. For soccer, there is a third option, the draw, in the moneyline or “three-way moneyline” markets.

Another way to refer to this is the “handle percentage” that is being bet on a team or an outcome.

By analyzing this data, you can see how much percentage of the actual money is coming in for a specific event or team in a match.

This typically is a better way to determine where the sharper bets are going on World Cup matches and futures markets. Because if large amounts of money are bet on a team or outcome, despite the bet percentages (explained below) being higher on the other side, you can tell that the bigger money bets, often from professionals, are coming in on that side.

What Are Soccer Bet Percentages?

Soccer bet percentages are different from money percentages. When you’re analyzing bet percentages you’re looking at the actual number of bets made on a team or outcome in a soccer match.

Whether the wager is $1, $50, $100 or $10,000, if a bet is made on a match, it will count the same towards the bet percentage of all the bets made overall.

So if 100 moneyline bets are made between Team A versus Team B, and 70 of those bets (of varying amounts of money) are placed on Team A, then Team A has received 70 percent of the bet percentage to win for that match.

You could also look at this figure as the ticket percentage for that team. But, as mentioned above, just because a team is getting lots of bets (or tickets) wagered on them, doesn’t necessarily mean that the actual amount of money bet (money percentage) is also on that same team.

Is Fading the Public a Good Soccer Betting Strategy?

As is the case when betting on every sport, there are public or “square” bettors in soccer as well as professional or “sharp” bettors too.

Generally speaking, it’s often a better strategy to be on the side of the sharps. These bettors are usually making larger wagers and bet on sports for a living. They are not swayed by betting with their hearts or on their favorite teams. Oftentimes, sharp bettors make wagers that align with what the sportsbooks need for a given match.

Public bettors often bet on favorites and usually make smaller wager amounts. Over the long term, most public bettors usually lose. It’s why Las Vegas can afford all those fancy hotels on the strip. Therefore, logic would say it’s a smart strategy to bet the opposite of what the public is betting.

So then fading the public must be a good soccer betting strategy? Well, it can be, but not always.

Nothing in life is that simple. Even though long-term public bettors may come up short, contrary to popular belief, the public does win. And they can win often. The sharps can also lose. If it was as easy as betting against the public in every soccer match, there would be no more “public” bettors. It can also be important to note where some information on public betting is coming from when analyzing World Cup betting trends. Not all books are created equally and some may cater to a more public or sharp audience. This can skew the results of the World Cup public betting trends you’re looking at.

Overall, factoring in how the public is betting on a soccer match, should just be one of many tools used in your handicapping strategies.

World Cup Public Betting Trends FAQs