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NFL Draft 2025: Abdul Carter’s Odds to Go #1 Surge

Brady Trettenero

By Brady Trettenero in NFL Football

Updated: February 5, 2025 at 2:35 am EST

Published:


Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Abdul Carter with the trophy
Dec 31, 2024; Glendale, AZ, USA; Penn State Nittany Lions defensive end Abdul Carter (11) reacts with the trophy after the game against the Boise State Broncos in the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
  • Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter is surging up 2025 NFL Draft betting odds
  • Carter’s odds shortened from +1000 to +180 to go 1st overall after Myles Garrett trade request
  • Is Carter worth a bet with the top pick? Read our full analysis below

The 2025 NFL Draft is still months away, but the betting markets are already shifting rapidly at the top. Penn State EDGE rusher Abdul Carter has seen his odds to go 1st overall shorten considerably after a massive shakeup in Cleveland.

Myles Garrett, the Browns’ All-Pro pass rusher, officially requested a trade on Monday. This immediately propelled Carter up draft boards, going from +1000 to +180 to be selected with the top pick at BetMGM.

Let’s dive into the latest NFL Draft odds and analyze whether Carter is worth betting on to be the first name called by Roger Goodell in April.

2025 NFL Draft 1st Pick Odds

PlayerOdds
Cam Ward (Miami QB)+105
Abdul Carter (Penn State EDGE)+180
Travis Hunter (Colorado CB/WR)+250
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado QB)+850
Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss QB)+5000
Quinn Ewers (Texas QB)+6600
Jalen Milroe (Alabama QB)+8000
Will Campbell (LSU EDGE)+8000
Mykel Williams (Georgia DT)+8000
Tetairoa McMillan (Arizona WR)+8000

Odds via BetMGM as of Feb 4, 2025.

Miami signal caller Cam Ward remains the slight favorite at +105, but Carter has undoubtedly made this a two-horse race. Travis Hunter (+250) and Shedeur Sanders (+850) are the only other prospects with odds shorter than 50-1.

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The Titans currently hold the 1st overall selection after finishing 3-14 last season. Most assumed they would target a quarterback, but Garrett’s trade request has shaken things up considerably.

Carter’s Odds Shorten After Garrett Demands Trade

The Browns were already rumored to be interested in Carter with the 2nd overall pick. But after Garrett made his trade demand official, oddsmakers quickly adjusted Carter’s draft position prop.

The Browns are in a disastrous spot heading into 2025. Not only is their best player forcing his way out of town, but they remain saddled with Deshaun Watson’s albatross of a contract.

Watson was arguably the league’s worst starting QB in 2024 before suffering a torn Achilles late in the season. He’s expected to miss most of 2025 (if not the entire year) while counting over $72 million against the salary cap.

With such a tough cap situation, the Browns could be looking to completely rebuild their roster. If they trade Garrett for a haul of draft picks, Carter would be the logical selection to replace him.

The PSU EDGE is coming off a spectacular junior season in which he recorded 68 tackles, 24 tackles for loss, 12 sacks and earned unanimous All-America honors. The 6’3″, 252-pounder is an elite athlete who consistently wreaked havoc in opponents’ backfields.

Is Betting on Carter to Go 1st Overall a Wise Wager?

Despite his rise up draft boards, I’m hesitant to endorse Carter as the favorite. While he would fill a major need for Cleveland, the Browns aren’t actually on the clock at #1.

That honor belongs to Tennessee, who seem more likely to target a franchise QB instead. Even if the Titans fall in love with Carter, trading down would be the smarter play to recoup extra picks.

Based on BetMGM’s betting splits, Carter is receiving less than 25% of the handle (money) to be drafted 1st overall. The public still seems to believe a QB will be the pick, with Ward garnering over 38% of the handle.

I tend to side with the majority here. As pivotal as premier pass rushers are in today’s NFL, it’s still a quarterback-driven league. If the Titans aren’t sold on Ward, they could still target Shedeur Sanders (over 13% handle) or even trade down for a huge haul.

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At +180 odds, I don’t see much value betting on Carter to go 1st overall. He’s undoubtedly one of the most talented prospects in this class, but QB is still king when it comes to the NFL Draft. Not to mention, the Myles Garrett next team odds favor the all-pro returning to Cleveland.

Ward remains my top choice, even at the slightly reduced +105 price. He has prototypical size, a rocket arm, and is coming off a scintillating final season at Miami. Unless the Titans are absolutely smitten with Carter, I expect they’ll take the more conventional route.

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Brady Trettenero
Brady Trettenero

Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor

Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.

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