Grammy Odds 2016 – Kendrick Lamar the Early Favorite

The nominations for the 58th annual Grammy Awards (Feb. 15th) came out today. Rapper Kendrick Lamar heads the field with a startling 11 nominations thanks to his major-label debut, To Pimp a Butterfly, and its lead single, “Alright.” Taylor Swift and relative newcomer The Weeknd each garnered seven noms, while Drake and Kanye had decent showings, as well, with five and four, respectively.

Due in part to the sheer number of nominations for Lamar, he’s emerged as our favorite in some of the biggest categories, like Album of the Year and Song of the Year. (The universal acclaim for the album also helps.)

But picking up a bunch of nominations doesn’t make him a lock by any stretch. Just last year, Sia’s “Chandelier” was shutout despite being nominated for Record of the Year, Song of the Year, Best Pop Solo Performance, and Best Music Video. (I guess the Grammys have something against interpretive skin-suit performance art.)

Lamar has also been on the business end of an upset before, losing out to Macklemore for Best Rap Album back in 2014. (Even Macklemore knew Kendrick got “robbed”.)

Will this year’s awards – which still don’t have a host – go according to script, or will the likes of J. Cole and Chris Stapleton pull upsets of Macklemorian proportions?

We take a look at the odds for all of the major categories, below, along with some fun props for the most prolific nominees and the yet-to-be-named host. A couple obligatory Kanye props round out our list because, honestly, WTF is that guy going to do now?

2016 Grammy Awards Odds and Props:

Awards and Host Odds

Odds to win Record of the Year:

• Mark Ronson ft. Bruno Mars – “Uptown Funk”: 3/1
• Taylor Swift, “Blank Space”: 3/1
• The Weeknd, “Can’t Feel My Face”: 7/2
• Ed Sheeran, “Thinking Out Loud”: 8/1
• D’Angelo and the Vanguard – “Really Love”: 20/1

Odds to win Album of the Year:

• Kendrick Lamar, To Pimp a Butterfly: 5/2
• Taylor Swift, 1989: 5/2
• The Weeknd, Beauty Behind the Madness: 4/1
• Alabama Shakes, Sound & Color: 4/1
• Chris Stapleton, Traveller: 20/1

Odds to win Song of the Year:

• Kendrick Lamar, “Alright”: 3/1
• Taylor Swift, “Blank Space”: 3/1
• Ed Sheeran, “Thinking Out Loud”: 7/2
• Wiz Khalifa feat. Charlie Puth, “See You Again”: 6/1
• Little Big Town, “Girl Crush”: 8/1

Odds to win Best New Artist:

• Meghan Trainor: 5/6
• Courtney Barnett: 5/1
• Sam Hunt: 5/1
• James Bay: 12/1
• Tori Kelly: 20/1

Odds to win Best Rap Album:

• Kendrick Lamar, To Pimp a Butterfly: 1/2
• Drake, If You’re Reading This It’s Too Late: 8/1
• Nicki Minaj, The Pinkprint: 8/1
• Dr. Dre, Compton: 9/1
• J. Cole, 2014 Forest Hills Drive: 15/1

Odds to win Best Dance/Electronic Album:

• Skrillex and Diplo, Skrillex and Diplo Present Jack Ü: 5/2
• The Chemical Brothers, Born in the Echoes: 3/1
• Disclosure, Caracal: 3/1
• Jamie xx, In Colour: 5/1
• Caribou, Our Love: 14/1

Odds to host the 2016 Grammys:

• LL Cool J: 1/1 – He’s hosted four straight years, after all. That’s something like a phenomenon!
• Kevin Hart: 5/1 – He didn’t get the Oscars. This would be a nice consolation prize. But he’s not terribly musical.
• James Corden: 6/1 – The host of the Late Late Show could use the increased exposure. He gets dominated by Seth Meyers in the ratings.
• Drake: 9/1 –  The show would run way over time because of all the lint-roller breaks.
• Stephen Colbert: 12/1 – Good luck getting the late-night’s new “it girl”-guy.
• No host: 5/1

Multiple Nomination Props

Over/Under on wins by Kendrick Lamar (11 nominations): 4.5 – Lamar’s 11 nominations are the second-most ever. MJ had 12 back in ’84 (when he also took home a record eight wins).

Over/Under on wins by The Weeknd (seven nominations): 2

Over/Under on wins by Taylor Swift (seven nominations): 1.5

Over/Under on wins by Drake (five nominations): 0.5

Over/Under on wins by Kanye West (four nominations): 0.5

Odds that the above artists get shut out:

• Kanye West: 5/6
• Drake: 1/1
• Taylor Swift: 2/1
• The Weeknd: 5/1 – He has the same number of noms as Tay-Tay, but looks to have some softer categories.
• Kendrick Lamar: 25/1

Odds to have the most Tweeted-about performance of the night: (Since we don’t know the lineup yet, everyone’s odds are pretty long still. But if Yeezy gets up on stage, he’s likely to do something Tweet-worthy. And even if Bieber and Swift do nothing Tweet-worthy, Beliebers and Swifties will act like they did.)

• Kanye West: 4/1
• Justin Bieber: 6/1
• Taylor Swift: 6/1
• Kendrick Lamar: 8/1
• Drake: 10/1
• Ed Sheeran: 15/1
• Maroon 5: 20/1
• James Taylor: 1500/1 – I’ve seen fire; I’ve seen rain; I’ve never seen James Taylor blow up on Twitter.

Odds someone rushes the stage to interrupt the show, Kanye-style: 5/2

Odds that Kanye West has opinions on who should have won: 1/300

(Photo credit: gozamos (http://www.flickr.com/photos/gozamos/7597472010/) [CC BY-SA 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons. Photo has been cropped.)