Touchdown Picks & Player Props to Bet in Jaguars vs Texans (Oct 18)

The Houston Texans cross the pond to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in a Week 6 AFC South showdown on Sunday, October 18. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:30 AM ET on NFL Network from London’s Wembley Stadium. Bettors eyeing the NFL props market will find compelling storylines surrounding starting quarterbacks CJ Stroud and Trevor Lawrence.

Stroud and the Houston offense must adjust without Tank Dell and David Montgomery. These absences create target-share/carry-share opportunities for other Texans stepping up. Meanwhile, Lawrence leads a healthy Jacksonville passing attack against a Houston defense featuring Will Anderson Jr, the current favorite in the NFL Defensive Player of the Year odds.

Read on for a breakdown of the top player props, betting trends, and sports betting picks for this international matchup.

Texans vs Jaguars Player Props for Week 6

Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence saw his NFL passing yards props dip slightly from an opening 229.5 to 228.5. CJ Stroud’s yardage holds firm at a higher 254.5, reflecting Houston’s 1,309 seasonal passing yards compared to Jacksonville’s 1,103.

Passing Props

Both signal-callers have their NFL passing TD odds set at 1.5. Stroud is favored toward the over at +115, while Lawrence sits at +125. Stroud’s NFL pass completions props sit higher at 22.5 compared to 19.5 for Lawrence.

Rushing & Receiving Props

Marvin Harrison Jr experienced a downward adjustment, with his NFL receiving yards props falling from an opening 25.5 to 20.5. His receptions also dropped from 2.5 to 1.5. Jakobi Meyers saw a slight decrease, moving from 33.5 to 32.5 yards.

Now focusing on the backfield, Bhayshul Tuten’s NFL rushing yards props ticked down from 63.5 to 62.5 on 16.5 attempts. Conversely, Jo’Quavious Marks saw his rushing yardage climb from 47.5 to 48.5, supported by a volume projection of 14.5 rush attempts.

Touchdown Props

Jo’Quavious Marks leads the Houston touchdown market. Bettors can find value using Kalshi prices for NFL TD scorer odds, where Marks is trading at 42 cents, implying a +138 payout. This represents better value than standard sportsbooks. His NFL first TD scorer odds lengthened from +650 to +750.

Meantime, Bhayshul Tuten holds steady at +525 for the first touchdown scorer. His anytime price on Kalshi sits at 41 cents, translating to +143 odds. Parker Washington saw a slight odds increase for the first score, shifting from +725 to +775.

Texans vs Jaguars Player Betting Trends

• CJ Stroud (HOU): CJ Stroud has exceeded 253.5 passing yards in 4 of his last 5 games (280.4 passing yards/game average).
• Trevor Lawrence (JAX): Trevor Lawrence has failed to exceed 228.5 passing yards in 3 of his last 4 games (232.2 passing yards/game average).
• Bhayshul Tuten (JAX): Bhayshul Tuten has exceeded 73.5 rushing + receiving yards in 4 of his last 5 games (85.4 rushing + receiving yards/game average).
• Nico Collins (HOU): Nico Collins has exceeded 71.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games against the Jacksonville Jaguars (119.5 receiving yards/game average).
• Dalton Schultz (HOU): Dalton Schultz has failed to exceed 31.5 receiving yards in 5 of his last 6 games on the road (26.7 receiving yards/game average).
• Jakobi Meyers (JAX): Jakobi Meyers has exceeded 34.5 receiving yards in 12 of his last 15 games (46.5 receiving yards/game average).
• Xavier Hutchinson (HOU): Xavier Hutchinson has exceeded 14.5 receiving yards in 9 straight games (44.6 receiving yards/game average).

Best Player Prop Bets for Texans vs Jaguars

Finding value in the player prop market requires a blend of individual performance history and matchup data. For this London contest, the numbers point toward the receiving game and an expanded carry share in the Houston backfield.

Here are the top three player prop predictions for this Week 6 international matchup.

Jakobi Meyers, WR (JAX): Over 32.5 Receiving Yards (-115 at BetMGM)

Meyers brings a consistent personal baseline into this game, making his current receiving yards total look slightly deflated. The Houston defense allows 256.2 passing yards per game and 7.24 yards per passing attempt this season.

Jakobi Meyers has exceeded 34.5 receiving yards in 12 of his last 15 games, sporting a 46.5 per-game average. With an 80% hit rate at a higher threshold of 34.5 yards over a 15-game sample, Meyers requires just 33 yards to cash this over.

Nico Collins, WR (HOU): 72+ Receiving Yards (-113 at Novig) – CLAIM SBD’S NOVIG PROMO CODE

Sometimes a player simply has a specific opponent’s number. Collins has built a strong individual track record when facing the Jaguars. Jacksonville’s defense surrenders 277.2 passing yards per game and 7.79 yards per passing attempt.

Nico Collins has exceeded 71.5 receiving yards in 4 straight games against Jacksonville. Over that span, he boasts a 119.5 receiving yards/game average. With his line set at 73.5, his historical success against this secondary suggests a strong play on the over.

Jo’Quavious Marks, RB (HOU): Anytime Touchdown (+138 at Kalshi)

Prediction Markets

Anytime TD Prediction

Learn more about Prediction Markets

Kalshi

Marks 1+ TD

42%

Predict

With David Montgomery sidelined by a groin injury, Jo’Quavious Marks slots in as the primary ball carrier for Houston. The expanded carry share points toward high-leverage opportunities in the red zone.

Bettors can maximize their return by grabbing Marks at 42 cents on Kalshi, which implies +138 odds. Given his projected 14.5 rush attempts and position atop the depth chart, backing Marks to find the end zone is a statistically sound wager.

Texans vs Jaguars Injury Reports

The Houston Texans enter this matchup dealing with significant absences on both sides of the ball. The final injury report confirms that key offensive weapons Tank Dell and David Montgomery will miss the contest.

With Montgomery sidelined by a groin injury, Houston’s backfield responsibilities shift. According to the depth chart, Jo’Quavious Marks slots in as the next option, followed by Dare Ogunbowale. Marks should see a heavy workload, making his rushing volume props actionable.

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Odds

• Spread: Jaguars -2.5 (-115) | Texans +2.5 (-105)
• Moneyline: Jaguars -143 | Texans +120
• Total: Over 42 (-111) | Under 42 (-108)

Odds as of Oct 17 at BetMGM.

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this London matchup as slight 2.5-point favorites over the Houston Texans. With the total set at a modest 42 points, bookmakers anticipate a moderately paced game. This reflects the typical offensive adjustments required for international travel and Houston’s key injuries.

Jacksonville’s -143 moneyline makes them the expected outright winner. Bettors using top NFL betting apps can find +120 value on the Texans to secure an upset victory on foreign soil.