NFL Public Betting Trends – Latest Bet & Money Percentages for Week 3

NFL public betting trends for the 2026-27 season reveal how bettors are wagering across spreads, totals, and moneylines. The tables above display the latest NFL public betting splits for every game of the 2026-27 NFL season. You can see the breakdown in bets/tickets as well as money/handle for the moneyline, spread, and total for all matchups.

NFL public betting splits above are updated hourly; the data presented in the public betting chart is an average of the NFL public bets and NFL public money from multiple North American and global sportsbooks that are approved by SBD.

Here is what we’re seeing from the money bet on Week 3 of the 2026 season:

• The public’s favorite early bet of the week is the Panthers as 2.5-point road favorites in Cleveland. Bryce Young has obviously done enough to win over the public, while last week’s Browns win doesn’t seem to be inspiring any confidence, as 92% of the ATS money is on Carolina.
• There are three other teams seeing at least 80% of the money bet against the spread in their respective matchups: the Chiefs (at Miami), Seahawks (at Washington), and 49ers (vs Arizona).

Week 3 Public Betting Report

Updated Monday, September 21

Entering Week 3 of an NFL season, the public typically sees three groups of teams: (a) teams who have confirmed they are good, (b) teams who have confirmed they are bad, and (c) teams who they have no clue about. That final group of teams includes the likes of the Packers, Jets, and Cowboys, among others.

We’re seeing this uncertainty, which has also been compounded by a ton of injuries so far, show up in the early betting splits for Week 3. The public is still confident the Browns are bad, in spite of their Week 2 win over the Bucs, as we are seeing 92% of the ATS money in their matchup on the Panthers as 2.5-point road favorites. But there are only four other teams seeing more than 70% of the money bet against the spread in their respective matchups.

One of the immediate public betting stories shaping up for Week 3 comes in the Chargers at Bills game, where Buffalo is seeing a heavy majority of the ATS bets, but a slim majority of the money. There are obviously some larger wagers out there on the Chargers waking up after their 0-2 start.

If you have found the justification needed to place a bet from these NFL public betting splits, we also include the best odds for each in the table above. We know how valuable, yet tedious, line shopping is, and wanted to make sure we help you avoid one of the most common betting mistakes.

As you follow along each week, if you do see dramatic shifts in the public betting splits for any game, don’t always jump to the conclusion that you’re seeing some sharp money come in, or that there has been a big injury you missed. Quite often we will see ATS money percentages heavily influenced by key numbers in football spread betting. It’s important for you to know the key numbers in NFL betting, as it will help explain some of these movements/trends, and also help you determine if/when you should jump on a line.

Public’s NFL Betting Record

Betting against the public has become such a popular method for so many. But it’s not always the right strategy. I have tracked the public’s betting record against the spread above to help you determine whether you should tail or fade the public.

It wasn’t a great start to the season for the public, as they went 6-9-1 against the spread. They did at least win the one game they were pretty confident in, which was the Steelers -6.5. Pittsburgh was the only team to see more than 75% of the ATS handle in Week 1, and they covered the spread by a half point.

Here is how the public has fared against the spread in games where more than 75% of the money is on one side (a pick they are very confident in) at closing:

• Week 2: 3-4
• Week 1: 1-0
• 2026-27 Overall: 4-4
• 2025-26 Overall: 15-18
• 2024-25 Overall: 28-16-2
• 2023-24 Overall: 32-28-2

Here are some quick stats looking back to the public’s 2025-26 (last year) record against the spread:

• Week 1 was rough on the public last season, as they went 3-13 to start the season
• The public’s first winning week came in Week 3, when they went 9-7
• Their worst week was 3-11 in Week 12
• The public’s best week was Week 6, when they went 11-4
• The best stretch the public had was Week 18 and the Wild Card Weekend, where they combined to go 14-8

Why the Public Loses Against the Spread

Most casual bettors treat winning and covering as the same thing. Favorites of seven points or more win outright 75-80% of the time, but they only cover at about 48-49% long term.

That gap is the spread tax. Books know good teams sell tickets, so they will price a true -6.5 favorite at -7.5 to push the number past a key number. You pay that half-point every time you back the popular side.

Brand names make it worse. The Cowboys, Chiefs, Packers, and Eagles draw retail money no matter the matchup or the injury report, and books shade those spreads accordingly.

Totals have their own history. Prime time overs have long been a popular recreational bet, and unders have hit around 55-58% in those standalone windows over recent seasons. Check the splits above before you assume the public is on the over this week, because that bias comes and goes.

Futures are where the bias runs deepest. Money piles onto the same handful of contenders at +400 to +600, and books keep a heavy hold on those numbers. The better value has usually been teams in the +2000 to +4000 range with strong efficiency numbers, bet before the market catches up.

How to Spot a Fade Spot

• Reverse line movement: 70% or more of the tickets are on one team, but the spread moves the other way. Someone respected is on the quiet side.
• Ticket and money splits that disagree: a side gets 30% of the bets but 60% or more of the handle. That is big money against small money.
• Road dogs at inflated numbers: catching +3.5, +6.5, or +7.5 against a public favorite coming off a blowout win.

Sharp vs Public

Tracking sharp vs public action can be quite difficult, as many sportsbooks do not disclose the wagers of their VIPs immediately, or do not include them in their pre-game reporting. In an attempt to do so here, I am going to consider any game where there is (a) more than a 20% difference between bet and money percentages, and (b) the bet percentage favors one side, while the money percentage favors the other.

There were two Week 2 games that qualified:

• Panthers at Falcons: 66% of tickets on Carolina, 65% of the money on Atlanta
• Packers at Jets: 71% of tickets on Green Bay, 69% of the money on New York

The two sides split in Week 2, as the public won with the Panthers pick, but the sharps won with the Jets.

Here’s how the two sides have fared against each other this season:

• Sharp: 1-2
• Public: 2-1

And then here are the results of the previous sharp vs public scenarios last season:

• Sharps: 14-8
• Public: 8-14

When Public Money Hits NFL Lines

Knowing when money arrives is as useful as knowing where it lands. NFL lines follow the same weekly rhythm all season.

Roughly 65-75% of the weekly handle lands in the four hours before the Sunday afternoon kickoffs. All that money nudges popular favorites up a half-point or a full point from where they sat on Friday.

Sharp bettors know it, so plenty of them wait until 30 to 60 minutes before kickoff, when limits are at their highest and the dog has been pushed to its best price of the week.

The takeaway for your card is simple. Like a favorite? Bet it early in the week before the retail money arrives. Like an underdog? Sit on it until Sunday morning.

How to Read NFL Public Betting Data

Within each bet type – moneyline, spread, or totals – we have broken down the total bets and money placed on each side to bring you a percentage for each side. The sum of the two sides will of course be 100%. There are two different data points to consider for each bet type: money percentages and bet percentages.

When one side/team is showing more than 50% of the bets or money, it means the majority of the public is betting that side. When you see a percentage of 75% or above, it means the public is overwhelmingly in favor of that team/side.

What Are NFL Betting Trends?

Online sports betting sites are very good at bookkeeping. Every single bet they take from a customer is recorded and stored in their system. Using all these financial transactions, we can sew together NFL betting percentages based off the total number of bets placed and total amount of money bet on any given game, whether it be the moneyline, spread, or total. This data can help inform your decisions on any NFL betting apps you’re wagering with.

To get the biggest bonuses that can be used to tail or fade the public, be sure to check out the latest Caesars Sportsbook promo code prior to kick-off.

What are Money Percentages?

In my opinion, the money percentage is the more important of the two NFL public betting percentages. You’ll often hear money percentages referred to as the “% of handle”. First off, the betting handle is simply the total amount of money wagered on an event, often broken down by bet type.

The money percentage simply pools all the money wagered on any game together, first sorting it by the type of bet (moneyline, against the spread, or over/under), and then breaks down what percentage of the handle is bet on each side.

The money percentage (obviously) tells you which side the money is on, and can give you a better picture of who the sharper bettors are siding with.

What Are Bet Percentages?

Though I don’t value betting percentages as much as money percentages, they still vital in helping to paint the full picture of NFL public betting. Bet percentages are frequently referred to as “% of tickets” or “% of bets”. Tickets are just a term used for all the bets placed – when you make a bet, a ticket is created.

To get the bet percentage, you look at all the bets placed (regardless of the amount of money risked on each one), again, sorting first by the type of bet, and then look at the percentage of tickets on each side of the game.

This is a more square way to look at NFL betting trends, since a $1 throw-away bet holds the same weight as a $1,000+ play.

How Can Bet Percentages and Money Percentages Signal Sharp Action?

As mentioned, ticket percentage does not consider the amount risked on each ticket, and just counts each bet placed. If we compare the bet percentage and money percentage of the same team (for the same bet type), you’ll know something is up if they are not relatively similar.

For example, if Team A has 78% of the tickets bet against the spread, but only has 50% of the money, we now know the bets being placed on Team A are quite small – or the bets being placed on Team B are quite large.

A large difference between a team’s bet and money percentages can help signal sharp action. In order to calculate this, just subtract their bet percentage from their money percentage. If the result is a positive number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on this team. If the result is a negative number, you’ve got larger bets being placed on the other team.

This is not 100% accurate in signaling sharp action, however. It does provide an early sign, but you’d need to know the total handle bet on the game to properly sniff out sharp action. For example, if a game only has $1,000 wagered on it, you can throw out the idea of sharp action.

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NFL Public Betting Trends FAQ

What is NFL public betting?

NFL public betting is a breakdown of the bets and money sportsbooks have taken from public bettors.

How accurate are public betting trends?

The accuracy of public betting trends depend on the source of your information. If you’re simply looking at the betting splits from one sportsbook, that won’t give you the full picture. Our public betting trends consider the bets and money taken at all major sportsbooks, and is accurate up to the hour.

Where can I find NFL public betting percentages?

SportsBettingDime’s NFL public betting splits page contains betting percentages and money splits for each NFL game of the season.

Is it better to bet against the public in NFL?

The general belief is that it is better to bet against the public. This is because public bettors are typically fans of the game, and will frequently back favorites and overs. But as we know, underdogs do win sometimes and the under also cashes.

When is the best time to bet an NFL game?

It depends on your side. Favorites are cheapest early in the week before public money inflates the number. Underdogs are usually at their best price on Sunday morning, once the retail money has pushed the line.

Why do public favorites lose against the spread so often?

Sportsbooks shade the lines on popular teams by a half-point to a point and a half. Big favorites still win the game 75-80% of the time, but they cover closer to 48-49% because of that markup.