Odds When Each #1 Seed Will be Eliminated From 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament
- Duke, Virginia, North Carolina & Gonzaga are the four #1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament
- Zion Williamson returned for the ACC Tournament and led the Blue Devils to the title
- Virginia was a #1 seed last year and lost in Round 1 to UMBC
One of my favorite bets come tournament time is when each #1 seed will meet their demise, if at all (hint: I have a #1 seed winning the tournament).
Oddsmakers give you the option to bet on when Duke, Virginia, North Carolina & Gonzaga will lose in March Madness. Here are the odds for each team with analysis of which play I think has the most value.
All odds below from Mar. 19.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
| Stage Of Elimination For Gonzaga | Odds |
|---|---|
| Final Four | +275 |
| Elite 8 | +450 |
| NCAA Champion | +500 |
| NCAA Final | +500 |
| Sweet 16 | +500 |
| 2nd Round | +550 |
| 1st Round | +2000 |
Gonzaga will be one of the most exciting teams to watch in the tournament thanks to Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke and Zach Norvell Jr. The trio all average more than 15 points per game and will surely roll through their 1st-round game as well as the winner of #8 Syracuse vs #9 Baylor.
https://twitter.com/ZagMBB/status/1108010241386405890
Where I see the Bulldogs running into trouble is the Elite 8 when they could face Texas Tech. The Red Raiders would pose a serious threat and are my pick to win the West Region. At +450, I love the value in taking Gonzaga to win three games in the tournament, but ultimately fall short of a Final Four berth.
PICK: ELITE 8 (+450)
Virginia Cavaliers
| Stage Of Elimination For Virginia | Odds |
|---|---|
| Elite 8 | +350 |
| NCAA Final | +350 |
| Final Four | +400 |
| Sweet 16 | +450 |
| 2nd Round | +600 |
| NCAA Champion | +600 |
| 1st Round | +2000 |
Last year Virginia entered the tournament with a #1 seed and fell by 20 points in the 1st round to UMBC. If you have the courage to bet it to happen again, all the power to you, but I’m looking for a more positive result for the Cavaliers.
In bets with this many options, you’re really just trying to find the value, and here, that’s NCAA champion.
U.S. Basketball Writers Association All-America 3⃣rd Team for De'Andre Hunter!
🗞️ ➡️ https://t.co/WzX9mvuzbh
🔶⚔️🔷 #GoHoos pic.twitter.com/vtUYoHIlVC— Virginia Men's Basketball (@UVAMensHoops) March 18, 2019
While they haven’t proved capable in the tournament in recent years, the fact NCAA Champion pays out the same as losing in the 2nd round makes it very clear that’s the play here. If they last through Villanova or Tennessee or whichever team they face in the Elite 8, they’ll have erased the bitter memories of 2018, be playing with confidence, and have a great chance to win it all.
Do not forget: this is the second-highest rated team at KenPom.com, not this year, ever. Only 2015 Kentucky with Karl-Anthony Towns, Trey Lyles, Devin Booker, and the Harrison twins rated higher.
PICK: NCAA CHAMPION (+600)
Duke Blue Devils
| Stage Of Elimination For Duke | Odds |
|---|---|
| NCAA Champion | +250 |
| Final Four | +350 |
| NCAA Final | +400 |
| Elite 8 | +500 |
| Sweet 16 | +500 |
| 2nd Round | +1000 |
| 1st Round | +2500 |
Here’s a tough sell. Like Virginia. I believe the right play here is NCAA Champion.
The play is the same but the reason is different. While the Cavaliers at +600 is a value play, the pick here is simply because Duke is my pick to win the tournament.
MADNESS IS HERE. #SI6HTS 😱🤯🕺🌪 pic.twitter.com/DS5aaCw0iW
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 19, 2019
The Blue Devils enter as the overall #1 seed thanks to the return of Zion Williamson and they absolutely deserve to be the favorites. My advice is bet them to win the tournament and enjoy what should be an electric performance from Williamson and fellow freshman R.J. Barrett.
PICK: NCAA CHAMPION (+250)
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Stage Of Elimination For North Carolina | Odds |
|---|---|
| Elite 8 | +350 |
| Final Four | +350 |
| Sweet 16 | +350 |
| NCAA Final | +450 |
| 2nd Round | +550 |
| NCAA Champion | +800 |
| 1st Round | +2000 |
While NCAA Champion at +800 does provide value, I’m not going to tell you that’s the correct play for the third time. Instead, I think it’s likely that North Carolina makes it to the Final Four but loses to whoever wins in the South Region. It could be Virginia or one of the lower seeds, but it would still be a tough matchup for the Tar Heels.
Cameron Johnson and Coby White will help UNC get deep into the tournament but ultimately bow out before the final.
PICK: FINAL FOUR (+350)
SBD’s Regional Previews
- Odds to Win the West Region of 2019 March Madness Tournament
- Duke Listed as Odds-On Favorite to Win East Region of March Madness Bracket
- South Region Preview: Virginia Listed at +140 to Reach Final Four
- Midwest Region Odds: UNC Given Worst Odds of #1 Seeds to Make Final Four
SBD’s Other March Madness coverage:
- The Guide to Filling Out Your March Madness Bracket for Non-College Basketball Fans
- The 5 Best Teams to Bet in 2019 March Madness Against the Spread
- Kentucky Given Best NCAA Tournament Odds Among Non-No. 1 Seeds
- Gonzaga Given Second-Best Odds to Win 2019 March Madness After Selection Sunday
- Duke Enters 2019 March Madness Tournament as Heavy Favorite
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
