3 Picks for Sweet 16 of NCAA Men’s Tournament
- All 16 favorites won in Round 2 of March Madness, making for a chalky Sweet 16
- Duke defeated UCF 77-76 setting up a rematch with Virginia Tech on Friday night
- Led by Jarrett Culver, who could be a top-10 pick in the 2019 NBA draft, Texas Tech has upset potential vs Michigan
The Madness in March is far from over with four games set for Thursday and another four for Friday that will decide the Elite Eight.
Scouring through the odds, there are three bets in particular that I think offer value.
Texas Tech (#3) vs Michigan (#2)
| Texas Tech (#3) vs Michigan (#2) | Spread | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Tech | +2.0 (-110) | +110 | O 126.0 (-105) |
| Michigan | -2.0 (-110) | -130 | U 126.0 (-115) |
*All Odds taken 3/27
Texas Tech as an underdog here is a bet I absolutely love. The Red Raiders have been undervalued ever since they were given a #3 seed to start the tournament.
Jarrett Culver averaged 18.8 points and 6.5 rebounds during the regular season and has scored a combined 45 points through two tournament games. He’s knocking on the door of the top 10 in the 2019 NBA draft and could give GM’s a reason to select him early with another big performance against the nation’s second-best defense. Expect it to happen and bet on Texas Tech to win straight up.
S W E E T 😋#4To1 | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/gZr8mAcmWj
— jarrett culver (@jarrettc08) March 25, 2019
This isn’t meant as any disrespect to the #2 Michigan Wolverines, who are a great team in their own right, but I plan on siding with Texas Tech for as long as they are listed as underdogs in this tournament.
This matchup in particular looks favorable because Texas Tech is the most-efficient defense in the nation and is replete with above-average on-ball defenders. Michigan lacks an elite scorer on the level of Culver.
At 6’6, Culver can go out and get his against even the best defensive guards/wings (see 25-point performance versus Tre Jones and Duke). I can’t put the same faith in sophomore Jordan Poole or freshman Ignas Brazdeikis on the Wolverine side.
PICK: TEXAS TECH MONEYLINE (+110)
LSU (#3) vs Michigan State (#2)
| LSU (#3) vs Michigan State (#2) | Spread | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | +6.0 (-105) | +245 | O 148.5 (-110) |
| Michigan State | -6.0 (-115) | -290 | U 148.5 (-110) |
No line stands out to me more in the Sweet 16 than the LSU Tigers being listed as 6.0-point underdogs against the Michigan State Spartans. With great guard play from Tremont Waters and Skylar Mays, as well as solid frontcourt production from Naz Reid, this is a team destined to play more than two games in the NCAA tournament.
Ice cold ❄️ pic.twitter.com/NxMeZhN1fy
— LSU Basketball (@LSUBasketball) March 23, 2019
Their narrow win over Maryland in the second round is deceiving considering they had a nine-point lead at halftime and probably deserved to win by a wider margin. The Terps were only able to narrow the gap by switching to zone and watching the unfamiliar scheme rattle an otherwise effective offense. Tom Izzo’s teams rarely play zone (though he’s certainly smart enough to notice how effective it was for Maryland).
Still, I like LSU to win straight up; if you want the insurance, take them +6.0.
PICK: LSU MONEYLINE (+245)
Virginia Tech (#4) vs Duke (#1)
| Virginia Tech (#4) vs Duke (#1) | Spread | Win | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | +7.0 (-110) | +265 | O 144.0 (-115) |
| Duke | -7.0 (-110) | -330 | U 144.0 (-105) |
Duke didn’t win their second-round game, they survived. But as you’ve probably heard about a million times, the motto of the tournament is “survive and advance”.
Expect the Blue Devils to do to Virginia Tech what they didn’t do UCF and that’s put them away when they have the chance.
💪🚀 You already know but… another one for @ZionW32❗️
🔵😈 3rd Duke winner in 6 years (@JabariParker @JahlilOkafor) pic.twitter.com/DjoZjh8ncj
— Duke Men’s Basketball (@DukeMBB) March 26, 2019
Duke won’t need another late-game clutch performance from Zion Williamson to punch its ticket to the Elite Eight. As fun as the UCF game was to watch, Duke should win this game in much easier fashion. Central Florida was built to hang with Duke. They had a dominant interior presence in Tacko Fall who forced Duke to be a perimeter-shooting team, something they are decidedly not.
Duke shoots just 30.7% from three (329th in the nation). Zion, who’s shooting nearly 70% from the floor for the season, was held to just 50% from the field against the Knights. He jacked seven threes, five more than his season average.
Ignore the fact Virginia Tech won the only other matchup between the two teams this year since Williamson was on the shelf for that game. Duke gets back to what it does best – letting Zion go to work against athletically overmatched defenders – and wins this one going away.
PICK: DUKE -7.0 (-110)
SBD’s Regional Odds Analysis
- Updated Odds to Win East Region of 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Ahead of Sweet 16
- Odds to Win Midwest Region of 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Ahead of Sweet 16
SBD’s Other March Madness Coverage
- 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds: Zion Williamson Favored
- Michigan State Leads Non-#1 Seeds in NCAA Men’s Tournament Odds ahead of Sweet 16
- Odds Heavily Favor ACC Winning 2019 March Madness Entering Sweet 16
- East Region Leads NCAA Tournament Champion Odds Thanks to Duke, MSU
- Oregon & LSU Enter Sweet 16 with Worst Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament
- Entering Sweet 16, Odds Say at Least two #1 Seeds Make Final Four
- Zion Williamson Props for Sweet 16: Over/Under 24.5 Points vs Virginia Tech
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
