Odds to Win Midwest Region of 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Ahead of Sweet 16
- The number 1, 2, 3 and 5 seeds are still alive in the Midwest
- #1 North Carolina is the favorite, followed by injury-bitten #2 Kentucky
- UNC has had four different players score 17 or more points already in the tournament
Favorites were a perfect 16 for 16 in the Round of 32, leaving us one of the chalkiest Sweet 16s in March Madness history.
In the Midwest Region #1 UNC will face #5 Auburn while #2 Kentucky battles #3 Houston.
When the tournament started, North Carolina was given the least respect of the #1 seeds and that hasn’t changed. While Duke, Gonzaga and Virginia are odds-on favorites to reach the Final Four, UNC is still paying plus money.
Midwest Region Odds to Reach 2019 Final Four
| Team | Odds to win Midwest Region (Mar. 25) |
|---|---|
| #1 North Carolina Tar Heels | +140 |
| #2 Kentucky Wildcats | +250 |
| #3 Houston Cougars | +400 |
| #5 Auburn Tigers | +425 |
With the number 1, 2, 3 and 5 seeds still alive in the Midwest, it makes sense there isn’t a lot separating them on the betting line. That said, there’s value in taking the number-one seed to represent the region in the Final Four.
A Real G (@__garro) ?#CarolinaSZN | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/3THQ9XdVN0
— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 25, 2019
North Carolina Has Looked The Part
Sometimes there’s a tendency to overthink things when it comes to futures bets. This time, the value is staring you right in the face.
You’re getting plus money to take the best team, one that has looked very deserving of its number-one seed in the region. UNC toppled Iona in the first round by 15 points before throttling Washington by 22 in the round of 32.
Carolina had three players score 17 or more against the Huskies. Luke Maye and Nassir Little both had 20, while Coby White added 17.
In Round 1, it was Cameron Johnson leading the way with 21 points.
See a pattern here? The pattern is that there is no real pattern. UNC is deep with talented scorers and that will pose big-time problems for Auburn in the Sweet 16 and whomever they face come the Elite 8.
Carolina-Auburn meet in the Midwest Regional semifinal on Friday, March 29. Tip time is 7:29 p.m. Eastern on TBS. #CarolinaSZN | #MarchMadness2019 pic.twitter.com/BW7Bx0FQ8g
— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 25, 2019
Bet On The ACC Conference
Betting on the ACC has been safe in this tournament. UNC, Duke and Virginia were all given #1 seeds, and for good reason: it’s the best conference and it isn’t really close.
In the Midwest Region, you have the Tar Heels facing two teams from the SEC in Kentucky and Auburn as well as Houston from the AAC. You have a deep, talented, battled tested squad from the ACC paying +140. Fading them to take a team from a lesser conference just doesn’t seem like the wise play.
As a whole, the ACC has a 10-2 record in the tournament so far, which is the best of any conference. Clemson football humbled the SEC conference when it crushed Alabama in the College Football Playoff and you can expect North Carolina to do it’s conference just as proud, mowing through the SEC in college basketball en route to the Final Four.
Down to 16 ? #CarolinaSZN | #MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/rziN0KD15r
— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) March 25, 2019
The elephant in the room here is that Kentucky already handed UNC a decisive 80-72 neutral-site loss in early January. But go look at the box score and note that PJ Washington filled the stat sheet with 11 points (on 5/9 from the field), 10 rebounds, and 8 assists.
Kentucky’s All-American has a broken foot and signs are pointing to him being out for the tournament.
Kentucky offensively with/without PJ Washington:
PPG with PJ: 76.7
PPG without PJ: 70.5FG% with PJ: 47.8
FG% without PJ: 47.23PFG% with PJ: 36.4
3PFG% without PJ: 25.9— Chris Fisher (@ChrisFisher247) March 25, 2019
Big Time Value In Betting UNC
If you bet Duke to win the East Region, you’re only getting -165, while Virginia is paying -120 and Gonzaga -110.
UNC is paying +140 and really doesn’t have a tougher road than those other favorites. The number 1, 2 and 3 seeds are alive in each region so this isn’t a case where other favorites have an easy run.
In a tournament that has largely gone the way of chalk, jump on the #1 seed paying the best value before it’s too late.
PICK: NORTH CAROLINA (+140)
SBD’s Regional Analysis
Ryan has been working at TSN for over eleven years, and is now a lead writer and content producer at That's Hockey. Over the years, he's launched and hosted TSN's first NCAAF podcast, The College Football Show, and been featured on the likes of TSN 1050, Sportscentre, and That's Hockey 2Nite.
