Oregon & LSU Enter Sweet 16 with Worst Odds to Win 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament

• #12 Oregon carried hot streak from Pac-12 Tournament into March Madness
• #3 LSU escaped near disaster to get to Sweet 16
• Is either long shot a worthy wager to win the 2019 NCAA Tournament?

At some point, we should see the agony and ecstasy of a top seed tumbling to a heavy underdog in the NCAA Tournament.

Right?

After two rounds, no dice. In fact, if you’re talking odds to win 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament, all top 12 seeds are still intact. Is there a worthy wager to make here? Let’s delve in.

2019 NCAAM Tournament Favorites

*Odds taken March 25

Oregon Ducks: Stellar Play or Favorable Schedule?

Only one double-digit seed remains in the Sweet 16. That would be the #12 Oregon Ducks.

Louis King started the season injured.

Then Bol Bol got hurt.

Then Kenny Wooten broke his jaw.

What's happened the last few weeks?

Legitimate rhythm and chemistry for Oregon for the first time this year.

Ducks advance to the Round of 32.

This is NOT an upset.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) March 22, 2019

Oregon and the #3 LSU Tigers enter the Sweet 16 with the longest odds to win the title. Oregon averages about +6700 to win the tournament, while LSU is sporting +4000 odds.

It should be mentioned the lowest seed to ever win the NCAA tournament is an eight. That honour still sits with the Villanova Wildcats, who ousted top-ranked Georgetown in the 1985 title game.

This is not an unbreakable mark, more that it hasn’t been achieved yet. Up until last year, a top seed had never lost in the opening round. Oregon’s next opponent is the exact school that broke that streak, #1 Virginia.

https://twitter.com/gothamreck/status/1109216313573031936

The Ducks have been on quite a roll. They’ve won 10 straight, including the Pac-12 Conference Tournament.

They’ve been scoring 71.8 points a game over that stretch, while limiting teams to 54.2. Payton Pritchard has paced the offense at 18.5 points and 7.5 assists in the two wins, while Tony Wooten anchors the sturdy defense.

But big-picture, the Ducks have only played two top-25 teams this year. Their KenPom strength of schedule was 70th, the third-lowest of any team still playing.

LSU Tigers: Best Still to Come?

The Tigers have escaped major disasters en route to the Sweet 16.

.@Kavell6ft11 with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks on 4/6 shooting in 22 minutes in LSU's opening #MarchMadness win over Yale! 🙌🇬🇧🏀#Hoopsfix #BritishBasketball pic.twitter.com/nEYF9bhsZw

— Hoopsfix (@Hoopsfix) March 23, 2019

Against Yale, the 14-seed, they watched an 18-point lead get shaved to three late in the second half, but were able to hold on to win by five (79-74).

In their Round of 32 tilt with Maryland, much of the praise was tossed at guard Tremont Waters for hitting the game-winner in traffic, but it only got to that point after they squandered a 15-point lead in the second half.

https://twitter.com/BrandonSaho/status/1109522485412851712

With Michigan State on tap, that routine is not going to fly, and their defense – the lowest ranked of any team left standing – may finally end their run.

#LSU is just as, if not more, talented than #MichiganState. But that dry spell of meaningless passes and bad shots in the 2nd half is a sign of subpar coaching. Izzo with time to prepare is going to be a headache

— Carter B (@CarterthePower) March 24, 2019

Perhaps LSU performs better under adverse conditions: they’re 13-6 this season in games decided by six points or fewer. For a team with such long odds, they own a legit 21-3 mark in their last 24 games, with a pair of wins against Kentucky and Tennessee, each ranked fifth in the nation when they met.

What’s the Best Bet Here?

Part of the reluctance to bet Oregon or LSU is the opposition: Virginia and Michigan State are top-3 in the KenPom rankings and are legit powerhouses.

If I had to make a wager on one of the longshots, I’d bet on the Tigers, who are at least in reasonable range: four no. 3 seeds have actually gone onto win the tournament.

SBD’s Regional Odds Analysis

• Updated Odds to Win East Region of 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Ahead of Sweet 16
• Odds to Win Midwest Region of 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Ahead of Sweet 16

SBD’s Other March Madness Coverage

• 2019 NCAA Men’s Tournament Most Outstanding Player Odds: Zion Williamson Favored
• Michigan State Leads Non-#1 Seeds in NCAA Men’s Tournament Odds ahead of Sweet 16
• Odds Heavily Favor ACC Winning 2019 March Madness Entering Sweet 16
• East Region Leads NCAA Tournament Champion Odds Thanks to Duke, MSU