Angels’ World Series Odds Improve During Hot Streak, But LA’s “Other Team” Is Still a +8300 Longshot
By Bryan Thiel in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 23, 2020 at 2:50 pm EDTPublished:
- The LA Angels’ World Series odds improved from 125/1 on Jun. 25th to 83/1 on Jul. 17th
- But they still have the second-worst odds in the AL West and trail four teams in the Wild Card race
- Is there value betting on the longshot Angels to go on a 2019 World Series run?
The LA Angels have been through the ringer.
On July 1st, pitcher Tyler Skaggs passed away. He was days shy of his 28th birthday and, less importantly, enjoying one of his better seasons.
Amid the tragedy, the Angels would return to action and honor his memory with a combined no-hitter in their first home game since his passing.
No words. What a moment. 🙏
(via @FoxSportsWest)pic.twitter.com/6plc63UfXe
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) July 13, 2019
The team has played inspired baseball since Skaggs’ passing, winning 7 of 11 and moving within five games of a Wild Card spot.
After a roller coaster few weeks, could we see two LA teams bound for the Fall Classic?
2019 World Series Odds: AL Contenders
| Team | Record | Sportsbook 1 Odds | Sportsbook 2 Odds | Sportsbook 3 Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 60-33 | +333 | +350 | +300 |
| Houston Astros | 59-37 | +450 | +500 | +350 |
| Minnesota Twins | 58-35 | +950 | +1000 | +1000 |
| Boston Red Sox | 51-44 | +220 | +2500 | +2200 |
| Cleveland Indians | 53-40 | +2200 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 56-41 | +2400 | +2200 | +2000 |
| Oakland Athletics | 55-41 | +3000 | +3300 | +3300 |
| Texas Rangers | 50-45 | +4000 | +5000 | +6000 |
| LA Angels | 50-46 | +7000 | +8000 | +10000 |
| Chicago White Sox | 42-49 | +25000 | +25000 | +50000 |
*Odds and records as of 07/17/2019
As the odds show, the AL is top-heavy. Just take a look at SBD’s 2019 World Series Odds Tracker.
The Yankees and Astros are strong favorites. The Rays and A’s control the Wild Card race, with the Indians turning it around, just like we thought they would.
"[We're nasty] is a humble, yet confident belief in yourself, your team, and your ability… I’ve believed all year that we’re going to do something special here. We’ve got to come together and we’ve got to have an identity. We do now.”
– @JLucroy20 pic.twitter.com/4tEN0O9Ruf
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) July 17, 2019
So with a favorite leading the West and four teams ahead of them for the final Wild Card spot, do the Angels have a shot?
Pitching Depth Could Pose Problem for LA Angels
The biggest question facing the Angels is whether or not they have the arms to contend. Or at least get them close.
The heart-breaking situation surrounding Skaggs left the Angels without their workhorse.
LA Angels 2019 Starting Rotation
| Pitcher | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Heaney | 46.0 | 1-3 | 5.09 | 1.35 | 0.4 |
| Griffin Canning | 66.1 | 3-5 | 4.75 | 1.19 | 0.9 |
| Jose Suarez | 32.2 | 2-1 | 5.51 | 1.56 | 0.1 |
| Felix Pena | 81.1 | 7-2 | 4.32 | 1.13 | 1.1 |
| Matt Harvey | 53.2 | 3-4 | 6.88 | 1.49 | -0.5 |
Skaggs’ 15 starts and 79.2 innings were both tops on the team. He was the leader in strikeouts and wins, too.
But he also had a steadying presence.
Matt Harvey has been a mess this year and missed all of June due to injury.
Matt Harvey’s mechanics look different tonight (right) than his last start before hitting the IL (left) pic.twitter.com/S02LrHU7C4
— Fabian Ardaya (@FabianArdaya) July 14, 2019
Heaney’s season has been uneven. In July, he’s been good with a 3.86 ERA and 10 strikeouts in 9.1 innings.
Before that? Three of his six June starts saw him give up five runs.
Griffin Canning all over the place tonight pic.twitter.com/NvfIFADcHd
— Daren Willman (@darenw) July 16, 2019
Canning is still learning the ropes. The rookie has 71 strikeouts in 66.1 innings, but after a dominant end to May (1.00 ERA, 1.43 OPP AVG, 15 strikeouts in three starts), he has a 6.35 ERA and a 2.60 OPP BA across seven starts.
With both Canning and Suarez already throwing big-league innings, the Angels have no reinforcements left to bring up in terms of pitching prospects.
Can Mike Trout Lead LA Angels to the World Series?
When Trout left the lineup with a leg injury, the Angels were on a three-game winning streak. They’ve went 2-1 while he was out against the mighty Astros, scoring 18 runs combined.
But make no mistake … this team needs Trout.
Mike Trout’s Past Five Seasons
| Season | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | .305 | 30 | 75 | .455 | 6.2 |
| 2018 | .312 | 39 | 79 | .460 | 10.2 |
| 2017 | .306 | 33 | 72 | .442 | 6.6 |
| 2016 | .315 | 29 | 100 | .441 | 10.5 |
| 2015 | .299 | 41 | 90 | .402 | 9.4 |
When you look at Trout’s past five seasons, you quickly realize he’s en route to setting a new standard.
Trout’s career-high 41 home runs in 2015 are in peril of falling. So too is 2014’s 111 RBI.
He’s has been driving an offense that’s eighth in average and fifth in OBP and runs scored. There’s no reason to think he’ll slow down.
Pitching Will Be Angels’ Downfall in World Series Hunt
Unfortunately for Trout and the Angels’ offense, they don’t have the arms to get them into October.
There are six teams ahead of them in the American League standings with a better bullpen ERA (4.39) and Opponent Batting Average (.244).
The starters own a 5.28 ERA (25th), they’ve struck out the 27th-fewest batters (390), and they’ve thrown the fewest innings in MLB (407.1). That means there’s a lot more work ahead for that middle-of-the-road bullpen.
The Angels’ five game winning streak is a feel-good moment, but it’s not indicative of how the rest of their season will go. The +8300 price on their World Series odds isn’t long enough to warrant a wager.
Sports Writer
Bryan has spent the last decade working in the sports industry. From the sidelines in the OHL and Rugby League to behind the scenes at TSN, Bryan has a wealth of experience with a soft spot for props and parlays.
