Primoz Roglic Set as +200 Favorite to Win 2019 Vuelta A Espana; Nairo Quintana a +1600 Longshot

• The Vuelta A Espana begins Saturday
• The final Grand Tour of the Year has been won by six different riders the last half dozen years
• There is serious cash to be won if you don’t like Primoz Roglic, Miguel Angel Lopez, or Richard Carapaz

The Giro d’Italia, Tour de France, and Vuelta A Espana comprise cycling’s grand tours. Only seven cyclists have won all three, and just Bernard Hinault and Alberto Contador have won each grand tour at least twice. This year the Vuelta has lots of options.

Among the three favorites, Richard Carapaz is seeking a rare double. He won the Giro, and is looking to become just the second man in the last 11 years to win two grand tours in the same year. Chris Froome captured the Tour de France and Vuelta in 2017. The last rider to win the Giro and Vuelta in the same year was Alberto Contador in 2008. That achievement has occurred just three times in history.

The route this year favors climbers, and a technical stage 10 individual time trial could be the difference. Let’s look at some of the primary contenders.

2019 Vuelta A Espana Odds

*Odds taken 08/21/19

Favorites Are Reasonable but No Lock

A former ski jumper, Primoz Roglic seems to just be a terrific athlete. He started cycling in 2012, and though he hasn’t competed in a ton of grand tours, he has been really sharp.

Roglic finished third at this year’s Giro, and fourth at the Tour de France last year. He has won the two other major stage races he has tried this year, the Tirreno–Adriatico and Tour de Romandie. That said, he ran out of gas in the Giro after leading much of the way, and in his only race since that was fourth at the Slovenian national championships.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pwyzXfwdw04

Miguel Angel Lopez has completed four grand tours and finished in the top 10 in each. Last year he was third at the Giro and Vuelta.

This year he was seventh at the Giro. He won this year’s Volta a Catalunya. He may have won the Giro this year if it wasn’t for a collision with a fan in the 20th stage. Since the Giro his only result was a 40th at the Tour of Poland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOKuH6iOHcs

Carapaz followed up a fourth at the Giro last year with a victory this season. This is his third Vuelta after finishing 36th in 2017 and 18th last year. He finished a strong third recently in the Vuelta a Burgos, and has a really strong team. That’s the issue, is he the leader for Movistar, or could it be Nairo Quintana, Alejandro Valverde, or Mikel Landa?

Tour de France Tidbits

While the Giro and Vuelta are important, the Tour de France is the Super Bowl of Cycling. While it is difficult to compete that hard and that long in two races over just a couple of months, a few of candidates from the Tour are worth considering.

Steven Kruijswijk made the podium in Paris one year after finishing fifth. He was fourth in last year’s Vuelta and finished ninth in 2017. He competes for Team Jumbo, one of the strongest squads, but it is unclear if he is the leader with Roglic also on the squad.

Veteran Columbian Rigoberto Uran just never closes the deal. Twice he was the runner up at the Giro. He finished second at the Tour de France in 2017. Last year he was seventh at the Vuelta, and this year finished seventh in Paris. He’s a decent time trial racer, and many of this year’s top contender struggle in that area. He’s not an awful longshot.

It is hard to believe that Nairo Quintana, still not yet 30 years old, won the Giro in 2014. Three times he has reached the podium in Paris. He won the Vuelta in 2016 and finished eighth last year. He is gritty and experienced, but predicting what Movistar is going to do is really tough, and since he is leaving the team next year it is doubtful they are going to throw their weight behind him.

The Bet

You can’t rationally bet on anybody from Movistar since it is hard to guess who they are going to put their efforts behind. The course probably fits Lopez best, but 3/1 feels short. Meanwhile Jumbo is really good, and it is going to be either Roglic or Kruijswijk. The odds on Kruijswijk are much much stronger and he’s riding really well. He’s the value option at 10/1.