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Trevor Lawrence’s Heisman Odds Plummet; Time to Buy Low on Clemson QB?

David Golokhov

by David Golokhov in College Football

Updated Apr 3, 2020 · 1:05 PM PDT

Clemson's football mascot on the field
Is Clemson's Trevor Lawrence a good bet to win the Heisman Trophy at short odds? Photo by Matthew Blouir (Wikimedia).
  • Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has thrown five interceptions in three games after throwing just four all of last season
  • The Tigers have already played the toughest games on their schedule, so Lawrence won’t have a chance at a “Heisman moment”
  • Lawrence is a bad bet to win the 2019 Heisman with Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurt far ahead of him statistically

It was widely assumed that Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence would be one of the 2019 Heisman Trophy finalists. However, after three games, Lawrence’s numbers are so-so and his odds have fallen dramatically.

Is he a good bet to win the 2019 Heisman Trophy at this point or should you scratch him off your list?

2019 Heisman Trophy Odds

Player Odds
Tua Tagovailoa (QB, Alabama) +200
Jalen Hurts (QB, Oklahoma) +300
 Joe Burrow (QB, LSU) +400
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Clemson) +750
Justin Fields (QB, Ohio State) +1000
Jake Fromm (QB, Georgia) +1400
Justin Herbert (QB, Oregon) +1800
Sam Ehlinger (QB, Texas) +1800
Jonathan Taylor (RB, Wisconsin) +2000
D’Andre Swift (RB, Georgia) +3300
Jerry Jeudy (WR, Alabama) +3300
Travis Etienne (RB, Clemson) +3300
Ian Book (QB, Notre Dame) +5000
Shea Patterson (QB, Michigan) +6600
Adrian Martinez (QB, Nebraska) +10000

*Odds taken September 09/16/19.

Lawrence Has Struggled

It’s somewhat odd to say this but Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence has struggled so far this season. We’re talking about a player who had 674 passing yards, six touchdowns and no interceptions in the two College Football Playoff games last season against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Alabama Crimson Tide.

However, to start the 2019 campaign, he’s labored with just 831 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions through three games. He’s failed to keep up with the other Heisman frontrunners, statistically, despite playing some weak defenses, including unranked Syracuse and Georgia Tech teams.

He’s thrown a pick every single game. He had just four all of last season; he has five already this season.

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At this point, it doesn’t really matter how he plays. Even with Lawrence being mediocre, Clemson has still won by an average of 38.0 points per game. They haven’t had to sweat at all and Lawrence’s efforts have been a non-factor to this point.

Clemson’s Schedule Is Soft The Rest Of The Way

Generally, to win the Heisman, you have to put up great numbers for a great team and play well in meaningful games.

Looking at the rest of the schedule, where can Lawrence have his “Heisman moment”, as they say? What teams can he shine against that will impress the voters? Unfortunately for Lawrence and the Tigers, there isn’t anyone left.

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Syracuse and Texas A&M were the Tigers toughest games. They remainder of the schedule is mostly overmatched ACC teams. North Carolina has had a good start but that’s a young, inexperienced team;. Florida State is a mess; Louisville is rebuilding; and Boston College just lost at home to Kansas.

Lawrence is out of games where he can throw five touchdowns, no interceptions and impress the crowd. That’s what he’s expected to do every week given the cupcakes that are left on the calendar.

What’s The Best Bet?

At this point, Lawrence has to be scratched off your list in terms of Heisman Trophy futures. His Heisman odds are at +750 right now.

Consider that Tua Tagovailoa has 1,007 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and zero interceptions, or that Jalen Hurts has totaled 1,253 yards and 13 touchdowns.

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Even guys like Joe Burrow and Justin Fields have done much more to impress. Lawrence’s early-season struggles are enough to cancel him from consideration here.

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