Trout, Alonso Favored in Odds to Hit First Home Run When MLB Returns
By Sascha Paruk in MLB Baseball
Updated: March 18, 2021 at 1:08 pm EDTPublished:
- Bettors can wager on which player will hit the first home run, whenever the 2020 baseball season starts
- The MLB does not have a set schedule yet, meaning there’s no way to know which teams will play the first game(s)
- It’s extremely hard to find value in this prop bet
The 2020 MLB season still doesn’t have a start date. It might not even have an American and National League, instead switching to three geographically-based ten-team divisions.
But that hasn’t stopped online sportsbooks from continuing to post MLB futures. Team win totals have turned into win percentages; the Rookie of the Year odds continue to shift; and now bettors can put money down on which player will hit the very first homer of the 2020 season, if there is one.
Odds to Hit First Home Run of 2020 MLB Season
| Player | Odds | 2019 AB/HR | 2019 PA/HR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Trout (Angels) | +800 | 10.4 | 13.3 |
| Pete Alonso (Mets) | +850 | 11.3 | 13.1 |
| Joey Gallo (Rangers) | +1000 | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| Christian Yelich (Brewers) | +1000 | 11.1 | 13.2 |
| Cody Bellinger (Dodgers) | +1100 | 11.9 | 14.0 |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | +1100 | 14.0 | 16.6 |
| Yordan Alvarez (Astros) | +1200 | 11.6 | 13.7 |
| Eloy Jimenez (White Sox) | +1400 | 15.1 | 16.3 |
| Miguel Sano (Twins) | +1400 | 11.2 | 12.9 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr (Braves) | +1500 | 15.3 | 17.4 |
| Nolan Arenado (Rockies) | +1500 | 14.3 | 16.2 |
| Giancarlo Stanton (Yankees) | +1600 | 13.8 (career) | 15.9 |
| Vlad Guerrero Jr (Blue Jays) | +1600 | 30.9 | 34.3 |
| Matt Olson (Athletics) | +1800 | 13.4 | 15.2 |
| … | … | … |
Odds as of May 5, 2020.
In total, 23 players are listed. The prop does not specify what happens if a non-listed player hits the first home of the season. Presumably wagers will stay open until one of the listed players hits a home run. (The remainder of this article is written under that assumption.)
Mike Trout leads the pack at +800, which translates to an 11.1% implied probability. Based purely on at-bats per home run, Trout is a justified favorite. But keep in mind that at-bats does not include walks. Trout walks a lot. A more telling stat is plate appearances per home run. On that front, Miguel Sano and Pete Alonso led the league last year.
Hard to Find Value Without a Schedule
If bettors knew which team(s) were going to be playing the first games of the year, this would be an easier wager to play. But we don’t (yet). We don’t even know if a season will be played at all. We also don’t know if it will take place in teams’ home parks or at select neutral sites. With that in mind, it may be wise to fade Nolan Arenado and his Rockies teammates. If they aren’t playing at Coors, their chances of hitting a home run in any given plate appearance goes down slightly.
Think Charlie Blackmon prefers hitting in the friendly confines of Coors Field?
He's reached base in all 23 of his games at home this season and is slashing .427/.491/.979 with 12 home runs at 20th & Blake. pic.twitter.com/YkLbTIQgrF
— Patrick Lyons (@PatrickDLyons) June 14, 2019
Everyone’s Odds Are Too Short
As mentioned, the implied probability for the field, as a whole, is over 130% which, from the outset, makes it tough to find value. If all 23 have a roughly equal chance of hitting the first home run, every player has a 4.3% chance. Only six players on the list have odds that amount to less than a 4.3% chance: Gleyber Torres (+2500), JD Martinez (+2800), Alex Bregman (+3000), Khris Davis (+3000), Rhys Hoskins (+3000), and Trevor Story (+3000).
The odds for Trout and Alonso have an implied probability north of 10%. Every player listed in the table above is 5.3% or higher.
This bet is a clear stay away for me.
That said, if I had to play it, I would certainly be looking at one of the six players at +2500 or longer. Among that group, Gleyber Torres had the best plate-appearance-per-home-run mark last season at 15.9%.
But god help you if the Yankees don’t get to play the Orioles right off the bat.
https://twitter.com/KyleNYY/status/1161102426805559296
Pick #1: Stay Away
Pick #2: Gleyber Torres (+2500)
Managing Editor
Sascha has been working in the sports-betting industry since 2014, and quickly paired his strong writing skills with a burgeoning knowledge of probability and statistics. He holds an undergraduate degree in linguistics and a Juris Doctor from the University of British Columbia.
