Serie A Matchday 33 Odds & Picks: Atalanta vs Brescia, Sassuolo vs Juventus & More

• Serie A’s Matchday 33 kicks off on Tuesday afternoon
• Will it be straight-forward wins for heavy favorites AC Milan, Inter Milan and Atalanta?
• Read on for the full Matchday 33 odds as well as our best bets for the week

Matchday 33 in Italy’s Serie A kicks off on Tuesday with Atalanta hosting Brescia, followed by seven matches on Wednesday and two more on Thursday. With six rounds to go, it’s Juventus leading the pack by eight points, but plenty of intrigue remains in the race for European and relegation places.

This doesn’t happen all the time, so at the risk of jinxing it, let’s briefly reflect on a perfect Round 32, which saw us cash all three bets. There were goals between Lazio and Sassuolo, a draw between top four sides Juve and Atalanta and last-minute goals from Parma to hit both teams scoring in their match with Bologna.

Also in Round 32, home teams struggled with just two wins and goal-scoring overall was down to just 30 goals, the lowest combined total from any round since the return. However, even at that, both teams still scored and the OVER 2.5 totals each went 7-3.

This looks like a slightly tougher midweek card but let’s now look ahead to our top plays from Matchday 33.

Serie A Matchday 33 Odds

All odds taken July 13

Pick 1: AC Milan vs Parma

Seventh place Milan hosts 12th place Parma at 1:30 pm EST Wednesday afternoon.

The two sides could not be in more different forms since Serie A resumed play last month and that could be in part due to their current positions in the table.

For Milan, they are just two points back of Napoli in sixth for the final Europa League position and have been playing some very inspiring soccer since the restart. The Rossoneri are undefeated since the restart at 4-2-0. That run includes impressive wins over top sides, Roma (2-0), Lazio (3-0) and Juventus (4-2).

Ante #Rebić has scored 10 goals in his last 12 Serie A matches for #ACMilan.

Croatian hitman up front 🇭🇷🔴⚫️ pic.twitter.com/A6zNBM54qG

— The State Of Play (@StateOfPlayPod) July 7, 2020

On Sunday, it was Theo Hernández who opened the scoring to give Milan the lead over Napoli, yet they fell behind 2-1, before scoring a PK goal in the 73′ to end drawn 2-2. The draw will not be what they were looking for as they failed to gain ground on Napoli, but it keeps them in the hunt and still undefeated.

By contrast, their opponents on Wednesday, Parma, have been putting up exciting results, but not necessarily successful showings since the league returned. They’ve played one more game and did return with four points in their first two games back. But since that time Roberto D’Aversa’s men have struggled to collect points. They entered Sunday’s clash with Bologna on a four-match skid and after falling behind 2-0 early just 16 minutes in, were moments away from extending the losing streak to five. However, two late stoppage-time goals for the Crusaders saw them escape with a 2-2 draw.

👀 @TheoHernandez 🆚 Napoli

️⚽️ Back in the goals. 🔴⚫️

[🎥 @CompsACM]https://t.co/N2ehRbRIsL

— SempreMilan (@SempreMilanCom) July 13, 2020

The result leaves us with some trends to consider. Since the return, both teams have scored in each of Parma’s seven matches with at least three goals being scored in 6/7. Parma have also conceded two or more goals in five-straight.

In their last three, they scored just one versus Fiorentina (a PK), once versus Roma (another PK) and were held off the scoresheet until the 93′ minute against Bologna.

Recent matches between these sides have been close with Milan winning 2-1 and the teams drawing 1-1 last year. This season it was an 88′ goal by Theo Hernández which was the difference in a 1-0 Milan win back on Matchday 14.

Parma are ice-cold right now and with little place to go in the table against a surging Milan side, I don’t see that changing here.

Pick: AC Milan to win & score over 1.5 goals (-150)

Pick 2: Sassuolo vs Juventus

Juventus are the title-holders and look poised to win the Scudetto once again. Teams like Lazio who were pushing Juve hard most of the season and Atalanta who are undefeated since the restart have been getting plenty of plaudits as well, but the club from the Emilia-Romagna region of Italy, Sassuolo have been every bit as impressive of late.

Sassuolo will host the Italian giants at 3:45 pm EST on Wednesday afternoon, currently sitting in eighth in the Serie A table, with still a shout at claiming a European League spot. They are six points back of Napoli with six matches to play.

Since the restart, Sassuolo has just a single defeat in their first match back to Atalanta. Afterward, they are now undefeated in six, drawing two and winning each of their past four matches. Goals have been coming fast and furious too, at both ends, as they’ve scored 18 and conceded 15, good for an average of 4.71 GPG in their matches.

16 – Francesco Caputo has scored 16 Serie A goals this term, equalling Domenico Berardi (in 2013/14) as Sassuolo top scorer in a single season in the Italian top-flight. Enthusiastic. #LazioSassuolo pic.twitter.com/uHdTjGfH3h

— OptaPaolo (@OptaPaolo) July 11, 2020

Saturday’s win against Lazio was even more impressive considering manager Roberto De Zerbi fielded a heavily rotated lineup with nine new faces from the match before. Despite this, Sassuolo held plenty of possession and created many chances. They looked to have taken a lead with Giacomo Raspadori’s first of the year, but the goal was chalked off due to a questionable offside and Lazio would eventually take the lead into the half. However, Raspadori would score again in the second and Francesco Caputo would add another in the 93′ minute to give Sassuolo the 2-1 win.

Juventus have been doing their best to leave the title race window just barely open, after a 4-2 loss to AC Milan and a 2-2 draw with Atalanta on Saturday. Truthfully though, the result was flattering to Juve who had less possession and attempts than Atalanta and who fell behind twice in the game. In fact, if not for two questionable penalties, each scored by Ronaldo and the second in the 90′ minute, La Dea may very well have put themselves into the title conversation by taking all three points.

Earlier this season the teams split the points in a 2-2 draw with Juventus scoring first but falling behind 2-1 and needing a Cristiana Ronaldo penalty in the 68′ minute to secure the 2-2 draw.

As good as Sassuolo have been, it’s probably about time that Juve get back on track and show their class. However, the Juventus defense has now conceded in four-straight and will be susceptible against a rested Sassuolo side full of confidence.

Both teams should score but Juventus will edge out the win. Gauge your risk/reward with either of the bets below.

Pick: Both teams to score & Over 2.5 goals (-120) and/or Juventus to win & both teams to score (+180)

Pick 3: Parlay

Atalanta vs Brescia

The bookmakers have caught on to Atalanta, arguably the hottest team in all of Europe since soccer returned. Of course, it doesn’t help that they’re playing lowly Brescia on Tuesday afternoon at 3:45 pm EST, making it tough to find value in backing the Nerazzurri at such short odds.

But any sort of play on Atalanta has to be included whether it be in a straight bet or parlay. They are now just one point out of second and nine behind leaders Juventus. On Saturday, they drew 2-2 with the leaders but looked like the better team for much of the game. In fact, they held leads of 1-0 and 2-1 and each of Juve’s tying goals only came through iffy penalty calls.

Like The Rolling Stones say: You can’t always get what you want. Today it was You don’t always get what you deserve. So proud of this team, we keep growing and surprising. @Atalanta_BC pic.twitter.com/SH2cFaq1ur

— Marten de Roon (@Dirono) July 11, 2020

Atalanta are 6-1-0 since the return and have outscored their opponents 17-7. Saturday notwithstanding, their results have been slightly lower scoring of late with three straight ending 2-0, 1-0 and 2-0.

Brescia are all but relegated and lost again on the weekend to Roma 3-0. They are 1-2-4 since the restart, have lost three of four and have conceded multiple goals in five of six.

You could bet Atalanta on the spread and hope for a three-goal win to cover -2, -2.5. Or a halftime/fulltime bet at -188 should also cash at -188. Atalanta to score OVER 2.5 goals also returns the same price. But I’ll simply back them to win and score OVER 1.5 and toss them into a parlay with this next match.

SPAL vs Inter Milan

Here we have another top-ranked side playing another team destined for Serie B next season. 20th place SPAL host fourth-place Inter at 3:45 pm EST Thursday afternoon.

While neither are in great form, this is surely an opponent Inter can get healthy against. Inter has recently dropped points to Bologna (2-1 loss) and Verona (2-2 draw this weekend) but are 4-2-1 since the restart and have scored multiple goals in six of seven. A few games back they destroyed fellow relegation side Brescia 6-0. On Monday, Inter closed out Round 32 with three goals in the second half to defeat Torino 3-1.

Ashley Young has scored more goals for Inter Milan in 11 league games this season (3) than he did in his previous 62 appearances for Man Utd (2).

Thriving in Milan. pic.twitter.com/5ny1diOFCg

— Squawka (@Squawka) July 13, 2020

SPAL are worse off than Brescia, firmly rooted at the foot of the table and are playing like they know they’re going down. They are 0-1-5 since the restart, have been outscored 14-3 and been held off the scoresheet in three-straight losses (3-0, 3-0 and 2-0).

Inter still have a chance at finishing as runners-up and should cruise to victory.

Pick: Atalanta win & to score over 1.5 goals / Inter Milan win — Parlay (-143)