Packers’ Super Bowl Odds Improve to +700, Saints’ Odds Slightly Fade as Green Bay Takes Over Top Spot in NFC

• The Packers — by virtue of their Week 14 31-24 win over the Lions — are now the No. 1 seed in the NFC after the Saints’ 24-21 loss to the Eagles
• Green Bay saw its Super Bowl odds improve from +900 to +700 after the victory, while New Orleans’ odds to play in Tampa in February were relatively unchanged after the defeat, going from +550 to +700
• See below for the current odds and analysis on each teams’ chances to represent the conference in Super Bowl LV

The Green Bay Packers entered their Week 14 date with the Detroit Lions with +900 odds to win Super Bowl LV. But after a 31-24 victory over their NFC Central rival, Aaron Rodgers and Co. saw their odds slightly improve to +700 — while taking over the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the process.

Meantime, the New Orleans Saints entered their Sunday tilt with the Philadelphia Eagles as the No. 1 seed, still without Drew Brees and at +550 to win in Tampa. Following a 24-21 loss to Philly, the Saints’ odds slightly faded to +700.

2021 Super Bowl Odds

Odds taken Dec. 13 at FanDuel

Rodgers threw three touchdown passes and ran for another score, leading the Pack to a second straight division title. Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts provided the Eagles with a spark at quarterback that’s been missing under Carson Wentz and snapped the Saints’ nine-game win streak overall and eight-game win streak over the past two seasons without Drew Brees as their starter.

The @Eagles as a team played their best game of the season. Coached their best game of the season-BUT-credit where it’s due—Jalen Hurts played really really good football and his legs were an absolute difference maker. 👏👏👏

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 14, 2020

Only the top-seeded team in each conference gets a first-round bye this year due to the expanded playoffs. That means the No. 2 seed will have to play Wild Card Weekend. The No. 7 seed in the NFC is currently the Arizona Cardinals, a team that could give any squad fits. Take a peek at our Super Bowl odds tracker for all the playoff teams’ odds.

You always want to be the No. 1 seed. But especially in 2020. And for the Packers and Saints, teams that historically play dramatically better on home turf, holding on to the top spot could make a huge difference in getting to Tampa and winning the Lombardi Trophy.

So, which team is the better bet to get there after Week 14? Let’s analyze each team’s chances weighing key factors.

Schedule is Key

Green Bay is 10-3 with games remaining against Carolina and Tennessee at home and Chicago on the road. The Saints, also 10-3 — but behind the Packers in playoff seeding due to a 37-30 Week 3 loss to the Pack — have games against the Chiefs and Vikings at home and close out the regular season against the Panthers on the road. On paper, it would seem Matt LaFleur’s group as a slightly better path to maintaining the top spot.

#Packers win out and they’ll be the 1 seed in the NFC. We knew that Saints win was huge at the time, especially without Davante Adams.

But right now it’s the difference of playing on WC weekend or getting rest at home.

— Peter Bukowski (@Peter_Bukowski) December 14, 2020

Of course, having a first-round bye and home field advantage doesn’t guarantee a trip to the Super Bowl for either team. The Packers famously lost a pair of games to the Giants in 2007 (as the No. 2 seed) and 2011 (as the No. 1 seed). The same rings true for the Saints, who were burned by poor officiating in 2018 against the Rams as the No. 1 seed.

That said, playing at home is a big advantage for both of these teams.

Return of Brees

One way the Saints might be able to overtake the Packers is if they can beat the Chiefs Week 15. Having Drew Brees at quarterback would help in that respect.

#Saints QB Drew Brees, progressing well in his rehab from a lung puncture & fractured ribs, won’t practice much, if at all, today, I’m told. He’s eligible to come off IR now. They could ramp him up Thursday to see how he feels, but a more realistic target to play has been W15.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 9, 2020

Having their veteran QB back would not only give New Orleans an upgrade over Taysom Hill. It would also offer Sean Payton’s team a huge morale boost going against Patrick Mahomes and the defending Super Bowl champs. Kansas City is formidable. But they’re beatable.

The Dolphins picked off the former league MVP three times in Week 14 and made things interesting late. New Orleans is better than Miami — and the game is in the Big Easy. If the Saints pull off a win over the Chiefs, they could be right back in the driver’s seat.

Extra Motivation

As noted above, both teams have lost some memorable postseason games at home recently. The Saints have the best regular season record over the last three seasons (37-11), but haven’t even reached a Super Bowl in that time frame, let alone win one.

Saints last three playoff losses:

• Minneapolis Miracle
• Blatant missed pass interference call
• Walk-off TD pass in OT

That is what you call karma for the 2009 NFCCG. pic.twitter.com/YsLuluP9Xt

— Drew Mahowald (@DrewMahowald) January 5, 2020

When you factor in Brees’ injuries the last two seasons, it would seem it’s truly Super Bowl or Bust in 2020 (as we thought might be the case earlier this year).

Sure, the Rodgers-to-Davante Adams connection seems unstoppable. But I’m fading the Packers and backing the Saints in this spot.