Purdue vs Ohio State Odds, Preview and Picks

• Ohio State is a three-touchdown favorite against Purdue  at home at 3:30 pm ET Saturday on ABC
• The Boilermakers upset the then-2nd ranked Buckeyes 49-20 three years ago in West Lafayette the last time these two programs met
• See game odds, analysis and a prediction by scrolling below

The #4 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1, 6-0 Big Ten) host the #19 Purdue Boilermakers (6-3, 4-2 Big Ten) Saturday in a revenge game three years removed. The last time these two programs met, Urban Meyer was coaching his last season in Columbus and Jeff Brohm was beginning a three-year stretch of sub-.500 seasons in West Lafayette. Kickoff at the Horseshoe is set for 3:30 pm ET and the game will be televised on ABC.

Ryan Day’s team is coming off a 26-17 victory in Lincoln against Nebraska, while Brohm’s boys pulled off their second upset this season of a top-five program in stunning a then-3rd ranked CFP Michigan State 40-29.

Now, the “Spoilermakers” will try to turn the trick again as 20.5-point underdogs against a Buckeye squad eyeing a second straight berth in the College Football Playoff.

Purdue vs Ohio State Odds

Odds as of November 10th at DraftKings

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Buckeyes Seek Balance

OSU is coming off a game that saw quarterback CJ Stroud throw the ball 54 times. The last time that happened, Stroud and the Bucks fell at home to Oregon 35-28. While Saturday’s outing against the Cornhuskers resulted in a victory, the redshirt freshman signal caller simply cannot be asked to throw the ball that many times.

Plus, he tossed a pair of costly interceptions and close to 20 incompletions that kept the game close.

With all the talk about CJ Stroud not running the football, it's hard to believe that this was his introduction to Buckeye nation last season: pic.twitter.com/Fu4NovkKCp

— Adam King (@AdamKing10TV) November 8, 2021

While Purdue has a decent defense, it is giving up 144 rushing yards per game. TreVeyon Henderson must get loose and open up the passing game to prevent Ohio State from becoming too predictable.

The freshman went for 92 yards on 21 carries last week, but failed to get into the end zone for the first time this season Saturday (he caught a 70-yard touchdown pass in the opener against Minnesota). Henderson figures to be motivated to hit pay dirt again this week. He has eclipsed the century mark on the ground three times in 2021 and run for at least 80 yards in six games this season.

Day knows having Stroud throw the ball as many times as he did against Nebraska is not sustainable. Henderson seems primed to oblige his head coach.

For Whom the Bell Tolls

Purdue wide receiver David Bell is enjoying a season for the ages. Through his squad’s first nine games, the junior has 1,003 yards on 64 catches and five touchdowns. He’s gone over the century mark in yards receiving five times this season, but has been especially unstoppable against the highest-ranked opposition.

Peep the David Bell footwork and balance. 😱@DB3ll // @BoilerFootball pic.twitter.com/oKj9SbzQOJ

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) November 6, 2021

In Purdue’s upsets over Iowa and Michigan State, Bell totaled over 200 yards receiving in each game – and all Boilermakers quarterback Aiden O’Connell did was chuck the rock for 536 yards and three touchdowns against Sparty.

Denzel Burke plays like a veteran.#OhioState pic.twitter.com/pzvCTIEiku

— Jacob Benge (@JacobBenge) November 6, 2021

Buckeye cornerback Denzel Burke may be a true freshman, but he is playing like anything but one. Brohm’s passing attack has been lethal against top-tier teams this season. So, Burke’s ability to at least contain Bell will be critical. Despite the receiver’s remarkable junior campaign, he has had some clunkers (combining for 171 yards receiving and no touchdowns in games against Notre Dame, Wisconsin and Nebraska that saw Purdue go 1-2 in those outings).

The OSU defense has been susceptible to allowing big plays this year. It can’t afford to give up the home runs to O’Connell and Bell and allow the Boilermakers to gain confidence as the game progresses. If the Bucks can get pressure up front – assisting Burke and Co. on the back end – Ohio State should be in good shape.

Belated Revenge

That blowout upset victory by the Boilermakers three years ago was Brohm’s signature win at Purdue before 2021. Then, came the Iowa and Michigan State games. Can Purdue really pull off the hat trick of upsets Saturday?

With a win at Ohio State, Purdue can become the 8th team to defeat three AP Top 6 teams in a single regular season and the first to do it as an unranked team in any of the three, let alone all three.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 8, 2021

With OSU’s performance against the Ducks earlier this season, Day’s group will be wary of lightning striking twice at the ‘Shoe.

Meantime, following Purdue’s stunner over the Hawkeyes, the Boilers laid an egg against the Badgers the following week. After taking down No. 3 Michigan State last Saturday, it remains to be seen how this group responds amid what promises to be an energized Ohio Stadium crowd.

Purdue’s defense has been solid this season. But it hasn’t quite seen the firepower Ohio State has. On the other side, the Buckeyes should be able to at least slow down the Boilermakers on offense. That said, Purdue has shown it can go into another gear against Big Ten heavyweights this season. That spread seems too big to me. Ohio State will take care of business, but not cover.

• The Pick: Purdue +20.5 (-110)