NFL Week 16 Line Movement – Updated Odds, Spreads, and Betting Lines

• Week 16 of the NFL season got underway with Thursday’s San Francisco 49ers vs Tennessee Titans game
• Which betting line has moved the most since opening? What’s the smallest spread of the week?
• All of the wagering information on every NFL game is listed below

As Week 16 of the NFL season is kicking off, the impact of the addition one further team in each conference’s playoff picture is readily evident. Only five of 32 teams – the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, New York Jets, Chicago Bears and Houston Texans – are officially eliminated from postseason hopes.

Of 16 games on the docket this week, just one – the Jags vs the Jets – will have no bearing on playoff scenarios. Factor in the latest COVID-19 positives and all of these elements are combining to create some interesting NFL Week 16 line movement.

Which games are looking to be the biggest movers and shakers in NFL Week 16 line movement?

Let’s look at that. First, though, check out how the NFL odds are moving for Week 16.

NFL Week 16 Odds

Odds as of December 23rd at FanDuel.

Charging Past Texans

High totals on charges are expected during the holiday season. Large spreads on the Chargers, well that’s another matter.

With all due respect to the Los Angeles Chargers, their status as the 10.5-point away chalk at Houston probably has a heck of a lot more to do with the hometown Texans.

#Chargers HC Brandon Staley said Austin Ekeler along with eight other players on the COVID list still have a chance of playing Sunday vs. Texans. Staley has only ruled out Joey Bosa and Kemon Hall

— Gilberto Manzano (@GManzano24) December 22, 2021

Everything is bigger in Texas. This season, that’s been including the point spreads on Texans games.

It’s the eighth time in 15 games that the Texans are listed as double-digit point underdogs. However, it’s just the second time it’s happened at home.

It speaks volumes to how bad the Texans are that the Chargers are dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak and are still a 10.5-point pick.

Adding Up To Big Numbers

A pair of games are sharing the honor of boasting the biggest total during Week 16 at 4.5 points. Amazingly, neither of those games are involving the Kansas City Chiefs.

Oddsmakers are anticipating a big bounce back performance from the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards were dealt a blow last week, losing 30-12 to the 2-10-1 Detroit Lions.

https://twitter.com/CaesarsSports/status/1474139258533330949?s=20

This week, Arizona is home to the Indianapolis Colts. It’s a battle between the NFL’s #3 (Indianapolis, 28.4 points per game) and #8 (Arizona, 27 ppg) scoring offenses.

Deadlocked with them is the Los Angeles Rams-Minnesota Vikings game. The Rams are #5 in the NFL in scoring offense (27.6 ppg). Minnesota is #12 (25.8 ppg). The Vikes are also the NFL’s #23 scoring defense (24.4 ppg).

Swing Shift

The line on the Raiders-Broncos game opened at Las Vegas -1.5. It’s since swung around to Denver -1 and may not be done moving. The NFL betting trends are showing that while 68% of the spread handle is backing the Broncos, 67% of moneyline handle is supporting the Raiders.

Raiders Week. 😎#DENvsLV 📸's » https://t.co/wPAnOT5wKm pic.twitter.com/Ya0faiR1Pu

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) December 23, 2021

Sharing the honor of the smallest Week 16 spread is the Jets-Jaguars game. The Jets opened as the -1 home chalk and have remained there. Who’s going to win between the 3-11 Jets and the 2-12 Jags? Between the #1 (Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence) and #2 (Jets QB Trevor Wilson) picks in the 2021 NFL Draft? Oddsmakers don’t seem too sold on either outcome.

Books Not Sold On Book

The New Orleans Saints will be having their fourth different starting QB under center when they play host to the Dolphins on Sunday. Taysom Hill has tested positive for COVID-19, which means Ian Book is now their #1 QB. Jameis Winston and Trevor Siemian preceded Hill as starting QB for New Orleans.

The #Saints are starting Ian Book this weekend, per me and @TomPelissero. With Trevor Siemian out, Taysom Hill is going on the COVID-19 reserve list.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 23, 2021

Book has never taken a snap in an NFL game. The Saints have scored 17 points or less in three of the past four games and under 10 points in two of those games.

Even though the Dolphins have accounted for 31 or more points in two of their last three games, oddsmakers are taking an already short total (40.5 points) and are shortening it to 36.5 points.

Saints Are Going Under

The switch at QB in New Orleans to Book is adding to the oddsmaking woes for the Saints. Following a 9-0 shutout win over the reigning Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans opened as the 3-point home chalk over Miami.

If Sean Payton wins with Ian Book at QB just give him the Lombardi Trophy and create something else to give the SB winner in future.

— Sam Monson (@PFF_Sam) December 23, 2021

Following the QB switch, the favorite has also switched. The Dolphins are now 3-point road favorites. That’s a six-point swing, and the largest spread move of Week 16.

It also means for the third time in four home games, the Saints are going to take the field as an underdog. In the 37 previous games played at New Orleans, the Saints were favored in 34 of them.

A Season Record Tiny Total

To say the least, there’s a lot going on this week involving NFL betting and the Saints. Already holders of the biggest spread move and biggest total move of the week, not surprisingly, the subtraction from the total in the Saints-Dolphins game is creating a record-setting number.

Last week, when COVID-19 cut a swath through the Cleveland Browns, costing them 17 players, including their first two QBs, it caused the total for their game with the Raiders to shrink to 37 points.

#Dolphins fans seeing the #Saints QB news today… pic.twitter.com/sReFqD9Qnt

— Safid Deen 💯💯💯💯 (@Safid_Deen) December 23, 2021

At the time, it was an NFL season-low for a total during the 2021 campaign. Then the Saints, Dolphins and the Omicron strain of COVID-19 got together and collectively said hold our beers.

They managed to limbo under that 37-point total. At 36.5 points, it’ll really take some sort of disaster to get a lower total posted by any two teams before the end of the season. Even the horrific Jets-Jaguars matchup is offering a total of 41.5 points.