Padres vs Mets Odds & Picks for Sunday Night Baseball (July 24)

• The Padres are -118 road favorites over the Mets on Sunday Night Baseball
• Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.42) will pitch for San Diego against Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 4.27)
• A look at the odds and matchup can be found below with a prediction

The San Diego Padres will look to a sweep a three-game series when they visit the National League Central-leading New York Mets at 7:08 p.m. ET Sunday at Citi Field.

The Padres (54-42/29-21 road) won for the fourth time in their last five games Saturday night by edging the Mets 2-1. New York (58-37/28-17) lost its third game in a row.

Padres vs Mets Odds

Odds as of July 23rd at Barstool Sportsbook.

The Mets are -118 favorites, giving them an expected win probability of 54.13%. New York has +700 World Series odds and San Diego is listed at +2200.

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There is a 30% chance of showers or thunderstorms right around the scheduled first pitch. The gametime temperature is forecast for 88 degrees to go with partly cloudy skies and southwest wind at 11-13 mph.

Padres vs Mets Probable Pitchers

Joe Musgrove (8-2, 2.42) is scheduled to start for the Padres against Carlos Carrasco (10-4, 4.27). Musgrove, who has +900 NL Cy Young odds, pitched one scoreless inning in the All-Star Game on Tuesday in Los Angeles while Carrasco will be working on nine days of rest.

Musgrove vs Carrasco

Musgrove struck out two and walked one for the NL All-Stars. However, he is 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA in his last four starts after beginning the season with eight straight wins.

The fans in Chavez Ravine didn’t seem happy to see Musgrove.

Jake Cronenworth and Joe Musgrove get booed at Dodger Stadium during the intros pic.twitter.com/152SUG91iT

— Talking Friars (@TalkingFriars) July 19, 2022

Though he did not factor in the decision in his last turn on July 13, Musgrove was roughed up by the Rockies in Colorado. He surrendered five runs on nine hits in five innings while striking out four and walking none.

Musgrove is just 1-4 in his career against the Mets in five games (four starts) with a 5.63 ERA. He lost in his only career appearance at Citi Field, giving up three runs in 6.1 innings in a start last season.

Musgrove has a 5-1 road record in nine starts in 2022 and a 2.59 ERA. He is 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts at night. The Padres are 12-4 when Musgrove pitches.

Carrasco is having a strong July, going 2-0 with a 1.56 ERA in three starts.

He pitched six shutout innings to beat the Cubs on July 14 in Chicago in his previous outing. Carrasco yielded five hits with six strikeouts and two walks.

Carlos Carrasco, 3 1st Inning Ks. 🍪 pic.twitter.com/H38V31R3WF

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 15, 2022

Carrasco faced the Padres for the first time in his career on June 6 at San Diego and got the win as he allowed two runs in seven innings.

Citi Field has been friendly to Carrasco this season as he has a 6-1 record and 3.59 ERA on 10 starts in Flushing Meadows. At night, he is 5-2 with a 5.09 ERA in seven starts. The Mets are 11-7 when Carrasco gets the ball.

Batting Average vs Starting Pitchers

The Padres’ Jurickson Profar is 5 for 8 against Carrasco with one double and one home run. The Mets’ Francisco Lindor is 5 for 14 (.357) off Musgrove with one double and two homers while newly acquired Daniel Vogelbach is 0 for 7 with four strikeouts.

Padres vs Mets Betting Outlook

Manny Machado hit a two-run home run in the sixth inning Saturday to account for all the Padres’ scoring and San Diego hung on for the win. The Fighting Friars had just four hits.

The sweetest swing in all the boroughs. pic.twitter.com/Gp71mIM9t7

— San Diego Padres (@Padres) July 24, 2022

Rookie shortstop C.J. Abrams was a late scratch from the Padres’ lineup because of a strained biceps. Center fielder Trent Grisham left the game in the eighth inning after colliding with Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt at first base.

Catcher Tomas Nido returned to the Mets’ lineup after being removed from Friday’s game with a bruised left hand. New York added catching depth by trading with the Pittsburgh Pirates for Michael Perez on Saturday.

Nido had the chance to be the hero with the Mets trailing 2-1 in the ninth when he stepped to the plate with runners on the corners and two outs. However, Nido popped out to end the game.

Pete Alonso had three hits for New York and J.D. Davis knocked in the only run.

A day earlier, the Mets got Vogelbach from the Pirates in a separate deal. He did not play Saturday in his first day in uniform.

We’ve acquired IF Daniel Vogelbach from Pittsburgh in exchange for RHP Colin Holderman. pic.twitter.com/dSodgZKvea

— New York Mets (@Mets) July 22, 2022

The Padres lead the season series 4-1 and hold a slim 26-24 advantage over the Mets since 2015.

Padres vs Mets Last 10 Games

Padres vs Mets Prediction

Musgrove has faltered in July following a strong start to the season. Considering Carrasco’s success at home and his strong July, the pitcher known as “Cookie” seems like a sweet play.

Pick: Mets -118 ML