NFL MVP Odds & Picks – Josh Allen Favored Over Patrick Mahomes

• Josh Allen has the shortest 2022 NFL MVP odds at +700, followed by Patrick Mahomes at +900
• A QB has won the award in nine straight seasons, and in 14 of the past 15 years overall
• Read below for complete odds, analysis and best bets to win the NFL MVP award

The NFL is a quarterback driven league. If you have one of the top-12 guys your team has a realistic shot at winning the Super Bowl. Without one, your ceiling is a low-end playoff team at best.

Oddsmakers know this as well as anyone, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the top-18 contenders to win the Most Valuable Player award all play the quarterback position.

2022 NFL MVP Odds

Odds as of September 4th at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the 2022 NFL MVP.

Josh Allen is the leader of the pack in the NFL MVP odds, followed by 2018 winner Patrick Mahomes and three-time MVP Tom Brady. A quarterback has won NFL MVP honors in nine consecutive seasons, and in 14 of the past 15 years overall.

The last non-QB to win the award was Adrian Peterson back in 2012. AP rushed for 2,097 yards that season, the second most in NFL history. However, given the way the MVP voting shook out last year, it’s never been more clear that a quarterback is a near lock to take home the trophy.

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In 2021, Cooper Kupp had one of the greatest wide receiver seasons of all-time. He won the receiving triple crown and finished with the second most receptions and receiving yards in NFL history. Still, those accolades only earned him the third most MVP votes.

How will @CooperKupp top his 2021 season?pic.twitter.com/BGCX76nPsd

— NFL (@NFL) September 1, 2022

Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady finished ahead of him, despite neither one of them having a season anywhere close to their career best.

Simply put, skill position players are replaceable. Jonathan Taylor’s backup isn’t as talented as he is, but the gap between him and his replacement is far smaller than the one between Mahomes and the Chiefs second string QB. If Mahomes goes down, KC could easily go from first to worst in the AFC West. If Taylor is injured, the Colts will remain competitive with Nyheim Hines running the rock.

Who's your RB1? 👀

Like for Derrick Henry
RT for Jonathan Taylor pic.twitter.com/1nDDjO4vJC

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) August 25, 2022

Speaking of Taylor, he, Derrick Henry and Cooper Kupp are the only three non-QB’s among the 24 shortest priced MVP candidates. For one of them, and other non-QB to win the award they would literally have to rewrite the record book at their position. That’s highly unlikely to happen, which should encourage you to only wager on quarterbacks.

Allen or Mahomes Up Top?

There really isn’t a strong argument to be made against Allen or Mahomes for MVP. Allen has thrown for at least 4,400 yards and 36 TD in back-to-back seasons, while chipping in six or more rushing scores as well. He’s surrounded by playmakers, and quarterbacks one of the pass happiest offenses in football.

The only player EVER with 100 Pass TD and 30 Rush TD in his first four seasons

Josh Allen pic.twitter.com/7u9Rnnf2wP

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) August 29, 2022

Critics might point to the fact that Buffalo lost its OC to the Giants, but it’s much more likely that Allen’s overwhelming recent success is due to his outrageous physical talent than his play caller.

As for Mahomes, we’ve seen his ceiling and it’s one that few can touch. He threw for 5,000+ yards and 50 TD in his first full NFL season, and has tossed for at least 4,700 yards and 37 scores in back-to-back years. The Chiefs rank among the league leaders in pass rate over expectation, and Mahomes is coached by Andy Reid, one of the brightest minds in football.

For the third straight season, Patrick Mahomes is king of the NFL Rank 👑

Players ranked 1-100 by our panel of 50+ experts: https://t.co/DQJYPAKqw4 pic.twitter.com/HCkbFmGW6Z

— ESPN (@espn) August 30, 2022

Will the loss of Tyreek Hill hurt? Potentially, but Mahomes is one of the greatest QB talents we’ve ever seen and will likely make stars out of Juju Smith-Schuster and company.

Both he and Allen are very worthy of their current price tags, but if forced to choose one Mahomes at the slightly better price offers more value.

Lamar a Worthy Longshot

Speaking of value, we cannot ignore Lamar Jackson at +1800. He won the award just three years ago, and has legit 3,500 yard, 35+ TD upside with his arm, and 1,200 yard, 10+ TD upside with his legs. Those numbers may seem preposterous, but he came awfully close to accomplishing the feat in 2019, playing in only 15 games.

Another look at that 47-yard touchdown run by Lamar Jackson.pic.twitter.com/K2pC8YnPk0

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 10, 2019

Critics can talk about how the league has figured him out after a down 2021 campaign, but the Ravens were one of the most injury riddled teams in football and Jackson was playing behind a second and third string offensive line for most of the season.

The Ravens will enter this season in good health, and if they stay that way Lamar is going to put up video game numbers once again. He’s my preferred target at +1800.

Pick: Lamar Jackson (+1800)