Best NFL Win Totals to Target After 2025 Schedule Release

• Checking in on the NFL win totals now that the complete schedule has been released
• The Chiefs have plus odds to go Over 11.5 wins this season
• See the updated 2025 NFL win totals, below, plus my best picks

We already knew the bones of the 2025-26 NFL schedule for every team, but it was made official Wednesday. With every game now set for every NFL team, it’s time to revisit the online sportsbooks to see their updated win totals.

The top win total still remains at 11.5, shared by the four teams with the best 2026 Super Bowl odds: Baltimore, Buffalo Kansas City and the reigning SB Champs, the Philadelphia Eagles.

That doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some interesting movement (more on that below). Let’s share the win totals of every team, and a few of the best bets to target.

NFL Win Totals & Betting Odds

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NFL Win Totals Bet #1: Kansas City Chiefs Over 11.5 Wins

No matter how you want to slice it, it’s never a good idea to bet against Patrick Mahomes.

This iteration of the Mahomes-led Chiefs will be carrying an extra large chip on its colleactive shoulder. This squad made it to the Super Bowl with a mediocre offense and an above average defense, before being thoroughly crushed by the Philadelphia Eagles.

The books still have them at 11.5 wins, but they’ve since moved the Over odds from the original -110 to +105.

You can chart their path to 12 wins: they have six losses in their own division over the last six years, so it’s not a stretch to see them go 5-1. KC takes on the AFC South, and perhaps Houston hands them an L, and they go 3-1. That means they need to get squeeze four wins from at Giants, at Cowboys and at Bills, while hosting the Eagles, Commanders, Lions and Ravens.

Sure, that’s a daunting slate but since become a full-time starter in 2018, Mahomes has only gone Under 11.5 wins twice in seven seasons, going 10-6 in 2023 and 11-3 in 2019.

NFL Win Totals Pick #2: Cleveland Browns Under 5.5 Wins

Even though you know how I feel about Shedeur Sanders, complete with a legit offensive line and a defense whose floor is above average, it’s still hard to envision the Browns getting to six wins on the season.

Our own Matthew McEwan’s 2025 NFL Strength of Schedule rankings have the Browns with the second-toughest slate in football, with the combined projected wins of opponents at 153.4.

Their opening slate is about as disastrous as it can get: vs Cincy, at Baltimore, vs Green Bay, at Detroit, vs Minnesota and at Pittsburgh. If they come out of that with two wins, it would be a miracle.

The back end isn’t great either, closing with the Bills, Steelers and Bengals.

In the middle of that pack, they have winnables against the Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Titans and Bears, sprinkled in with games against the Ravens and 49ers.

This team is definitely on the come up, but the schedule makers put a dent in that rebuild.