New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Odds, Picks & Player Props

• The Red Sox turn to ace Garrett Crochet hoping to avoid a sweep at the hands of the Yankees
• Rookie Will Warren gets the ball for the Pinstripes, looking to build on a strong past month
• See the latest New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox odds plus my favorite NYY vs BOS picks and props to bet

The New York Yankees (83-65, 39-34 away, 70-70-7 O/U) and Boston Red Sox (81-68, 44-30 home, 69-74-5 O/U) will conclude a three-game series at the Fenway Park on Sunday Night Baseball this evening, with first pitch scheduled for 7:10 pm ET. The pitching matchup features a compelling duel between promising New York rookie Will Warren (8-6, 4.22 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) and Boston ace Garrett Crochet (15-5, 2.57 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), who’s already powered Boston to three wins over the Pinstripes this season.

Aaron Judge, the heavy favorite in the AL MVP odds, powered the Yankees to 4-1 and 5-3 victories on Friday and Saturday, respectively, stretching Ne York’s win streak to three overall. But his team is a sizable underdog against Crochet in the Yankees vs Red Sox odds for Sunday Night Baseball. Below, find the current Yankees vs Red Sox betting lines and player props, plus my best NYY vs BOS picks for SNB on Sep. 14.

Jump to: Odds | Pitcher-vs-Batter History | Player Props | Picks

New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Odds

The odds position the Red Sox as -150 home favorites at minimum, with most books listing Boston closer to -160. The vig-free implied probabilities give Boston a 58.4% implied win probability, leaving 41.6% for the Yankees. The total is sitting at just 7.5, though with heavy juice on the over.

NYY vs BOS Odds Movement

The betting lines for this contest have seen notable adjustments since opening. The total has dropped a half-run from its opening mark of 8.0 to 7.5, a significant move suggesting that, despite two powerful lineups, the market anticipates a pitcher’s duel, likely driven by respect for Crochet’s dominance. As the total has dropped, the juice on the over has increased from -108 to -115.

The runline has also shifted, with the price on the Yankees +1.5 moving from -144 to a steeper -169, a significant 25-cent move.

Warren vs Crochet: Starting Pitcher-vs-Batter History

Though he’s still just 26 years of age, Crochet has already face the Yankee batters nearly 100 times (85 total at-bats), which largely positive results. The Boston hitters have just 24 cumulative at-bats against the rookie Warren, and the results have largely favored the Bo-Sox.

NYY Career Statistics vs Garrett Crochet

Crochet has largely stifled the current Yankees roster, holding them to a collective .224 batting average, though four of the 19 hits he’s allowed left the yard. Aaron Judge is just 2-for-12 with nine strikeouts and one homer. Paul Goldschmidt is a woeful 1-for-13 with just a single.

While Cody Bellinger, Giancarlo Stanton, and Austin Wells have the other home runs against Crochet.

In three starts against NYY this season, Crochet has totaled 21.1 IP, allowing seven earned runs on 15 hits and three walks with 27 strikeouts. He was hammered for five earned in the first game (June 7), but held New York to just two runs in 15.1 innings over the second two (June 13 and August 23).

Boston has won all three Crochet starts against the Yankees this season (10-7, 2-1 in extras, and 12-1).

BOS Career Statistics vs Will Warren

The Red Sox have had success against Warren in a limited sample size, generating a .292 average and .983 OPS in 24 total at-bats.

Warren has already made two starts against Boston this season, allowing nine runs (all earned) on ten hits and a concerning seven walks over 9.1 innings. New York won the first of those starts (9-6 on June 6) but was on the losing end of a 12-1 decision on August 23, which was also Crochet’s most-recent start against the Yankees.

Trevor Story has been a particular problem fo Warren, blasting a home run and a double in five at-bats.

BOS vs NYY Player Props for Sunday Night Baseball

MLB player props as of September 14 at DraftKings.

For prop bettors, Crochet’s strikeout line of 8.5 at plus-money (+120) is immediately appealing. Given his history of dominating Aaron Judge (nine Ks in 12 ABs) and the Yankees’ propensity to strike out, there is significant value on the over, though getting it at 7.5 with juice on the over at Fanatics is the safer bet. Crochet posted nine-plus Ks in two of three starts against NYY this season, registering 11 last time he saw the Yankees on August 23.

On the other side, Trevor Story’s total bases prop of 1.5 (+121) is another prop I’m targeting, largely because of his past success against Will Warren (1.600 OPS).

Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees Picks & Prediction

• Boston Red Sox moneyline (-150) at bet365
• Under 7.5 runs (+100) at bet365
• Garrett Crochet over 7.5 Ks (-145) at Fanatics
• Trevor Story over 1.5 total bases (+121) at DraftKings

The core of this handicap lies in the pitching matchup, which overwhelmingly favors the Red Sox. Crochet has been a legitimate ace this season and, if not for Tarik Skubal putting together another phenomenal season in Detroit, he’d be favored in the AL Cy Young odds. His historical success against this Yankees lineup cannot be ignored. He has effectively neutralized their biggest threats and should be able to navigate this game at home, where he has a 2.92 despite the hitter-friendly confines of Fenway.

While Warren has shown flashes for the Yankees, Boston’s past success against him is telling. The Red Sox offense is in a slump, but facing a pitcher they’ve hit well should be the cure.

The Yankees have struggled mightily as underdogs, going just 3-12 (.200) in their last 15 games in that role. Conversely, the Red Sox have been excellent at home against winning teams, with a 10-3 (.769) record in their last 13.

Despite Boston’s recent skid, the smart play is to trust the superior talent on the mound. Crochet is the kind of pitcher who can single-handedly stop a losing streak. With the total dropping to 7.5 and the under hitting in Boston’s last five consecutive games, a lower-scoring affair controlled by Crochet is the most-likely outcome.

NYY vs BOS Public Betting Splits

Sunday’s MLB public betting splits reveal a significant divergence between the general public and the larger, potentially-sharper wagers. While 62% of moneyline tickets are on the Red Sox, only 55% of ML handle is on Boston, meaning bigger bets (on average) are coming in on the underdog.

The most-lopsided market is the total, where an overwhelming 99% of bets are on over 7.5 runs. This extreme public lean creates potential value on the under, which aligns with my prediction of a game dominated by Garrett Crochet.

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