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Charlotte vs South Florida Prediction, Updated Odds & Player Props
By Brady Trettenero in College Football
Published:
- South Florida is a 28.5-point favorite over Charlotte in Friday night AAC action
- The Bulls are 3-1 ATS this season and beat Florida and Boise State in their first two games
- Check out my Charlotte vs South Florida prediction, updated odds and player props below
Friday night’s college football slate features a massive mismatch in the American Athletic Conference. The 1-3 Charlotte 49ers travel to Tampa to face the 3-1 South Florida Bulls in what could get ugly fast.
Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 PM ET from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL, with ESPN2 providing the broadcast coverage.
Charlotte vs South Florida Prediction
- South Florida -28.5 (-110 at Caesars)
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Four touchdowns is a massive number, but this spread is justified. South Florida has proven it belongs in the CFP Bracket conversation after beating Florida in the Swamp and dismantling Boise State.
The Bulls’ most recent performance was a 63-14 demolition of South Carolina State. They’ve shown they can run up the score against inferior competition, and Charlotte absolutely qualifies as inferior.
Charlotte’s Quarterback Situation is a Nightmare
Starting QB Conner Harrell tore his ACL in their last game against Rice. Backup Grayson Loftis stepped in and didn’t look terrible (15/31, 186 yards, 1 TD), but they still lost 28-17.
Loftis now faces a South Florida defense that’s been opportunistic all season. The Bulls have generated four interceptions and should feast on an inexperienced signal-caller making his second career start.
Charlotte’s defense has been equally problematic. They surrendered 28 to Rice, 34 to App State, and even allowed 35 to FCS opponent Monmouth. Against Byrum Brown and this Bulls offense, expect those numbers to skyrocket.
South Florida’s Offensive Firepower
Brown has been surgical this season, throwing for 983 yards with six touchdowns against just two interceptions. He’s also added 120 rushing yards and two scores on the ground, giving defensive coordinators nightmares.
The Bulls average 265.5 passing yards per game and 134.3 rushing yards at a robust 4.8 yards per carry. They’re balanced, explosive, and ready to exploit every weakness Charlotte possesses.
Charlotte ranks 136th in EPA per rush against and 131st in EPA per dropback against. That’s second-worst in the country defensively. The 49ers generate minimal pass rush with just five sacks all season and haven’t recorded a single interception.
Why the Bulls Cover
South Florida is a legit contender in the College Football Playoff odds as a Group of Five team. They face North Texas and Memphis in upcoming weeks, games that will determine their conference championship hopes.
The Bulls need style points. Running up the score matters when you’re fighting for respect in the playoff committee’s eyes. Charlotte provides the perfect get-right opportunity before those crucial matchups.
South Florida is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and has covered in both previous meetings with Charlotte. The line opened at 26.5 and got bet up to 28.5 at most books, showing sharp money backs the Bulls to dominate.
Charlotte’s offense ranks last in the country in opponent-adjusted EPA. They convert third downs at an abysmal rate and possess the worst rushing attack in college football. Their inability to sustain drives means constant short fields for the Bulls’ offense.
Updated Charlotte vs USF Odds
The moneyline tells you everything you need to know. You’d have to risk $7,500 to win $100 on South Florida, giving the Bulls a 96.3% implied probability of winning according to ESPN’s analytics.
The total jumped from an opener of 53.5 to 55.5. That movement reflects bettors anticipating USF to score in bunches while Charlotte’s offense sputters against a solid Bulls defense.
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Odds as of October 3 at Caesars Sportsbook. Be sure to check out the best Caesars Sportsbook promos before betting on Friday night college football.
Charlotte vs South Florida Player Props
CFB player prop odds as of Oct. 3 at FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet on Friday Night CFB with a FanDuel promo code.
Chas Nimrod’s receiving yards prop at 68.5 jumps off the page. The Bulls’ star receiver averages 91.8 yards per game and faces a Charlotte secondary that’s been torched repeatedly.
Charlotte vs South Florida Player Prop Bet: Chas Nimrod Receiving Yards
Nimrod is the primary deep threat for Brown and the Bulls offense. He’s hauled in 14 receptions for 367 yards and two touchdowns through four games, establishing himself as one of the top receivers in the AAC.
Chas Nimrod Receiving Stats – 2025
Charlotte allows 266.8 passing yards per game and surrenders a jaw-dropping 157.6 opponent QB rating. The 49ers have generated zero interceptions all season and only five total sacks.
Brown will have all day in the pocket to find Nimrod downfield. The Charlotte corners have been beaten repeatedly, allowing big plays to FCS opponent Monmouth and getting carved up by Rice’s passing attack.
Nimrod exceeded this total in three of four games this season, including 128 yards against Miami, FL and 96 against Boise State. Bothof those defenses are significantly better than what Charlotte brings to the table.
- Chas Nimrod Over 68.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel); 1 unit
Brady Trettenero
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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