Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners Odds, Picks & Player Props

• The Tigers can take a 2-0 stranglehold on the Mariners in the ALDS in Game 2 on Sunday
• A marquee pitching matchup features Detroit’s Tarik Skubal against Seattle’s Luis Castillo
• See my Tigers vs Mariners picks and predictions, plus the best player props to bet, and latest odds

The Seattle Mariners (90-72, 51-30 home) are in a precarious position as they host the Detroit Tigers (87-75, 41-40 away) in Game 2 of the best-of-five ALDS. After a gut-wrenching 3-2 extra-inning loss in the series opener, the Mariners stare down the barrel of Cy Young-winner Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) in Game 2.

Another setback would put Seattle on the brink of elimination and, with off-days tomorrow and Thursday, Skubal – who was almost unhittable in his first postseason start this year – would be scheduled to return to the mound in Game 5.

In what feels like a must-win game, the Mariners ask veteran righty Luis Castillo (11-5, 3.54 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) to go toe-to-toe with the best pitcher in baseball.

Game 2 is scheduled for 5:03 pm PT/8:03 pm ET at T-Mobile Park in Seattle on Sunday, Oct. 5. Below, I have set out the latest Tigers vs Mariners Game 2 odds, each team’s history against the opposing starter, the main player props for tonight’s game, and lastly my three favorite Tigers/Mariners picks to bet.

Jump to: Odds || Pitcher-vs-Batter Stats || Player Props || Picks

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Odds

As they usually are, the Tigers are favorites with Skubal on the mound. As of 1:07 pm ET, the best moneyline price on Detroit was -154 at FanDuel. The Mariners were as long as +135 at bet365. The total is a miniscule 5.5 runs with roughly even odds both ways. Odds commentary as of 1:07 pm ET. The odds in the table will change automatically to reflect the best available price for each market if the MLB odds shift before first pitch.

The O/U opened at 6.0 runs but was bet down half a run. With the total now as low as you’ll ever see in a big-league game, the MLB public betting splits show the public hammering the over (79% of handle on 82% of bets).

Skubal was absolutely electric in Game 1 of the Wild Card in Cleveland. He went 7.2 innings, allowing just one run on three hits and three walks with 14 strikeouts.

Pitcher-vs-Batter History: Skubal vs Castillo

Both of these veteran pitchers have a fairly sizable history against the opposing hitters. The Detroit lineup has 121 total at-bats against Castillo (including 40 from Javy Baez, alone) while the Seattle lineup has 112 total at-bats against Skubal (led by 26 from Jorge Polanco).

Detroit Tigers Career Statistics vs Luis Castillo

Castillo has fairly good numbers against the Detroit lineup in a large sample size of 121 at-bats. He’s limited them to a .248 average and subpar .644 OPS, allowing just two home runs (Kerry Carpenter, Trey Sweeney).

Javy Baez has 40 of those 121 at-bats and has largely flailed against Castillo, with a .225 average, horrid .544 OPS, and nine strikeouts.

Seattle Mariners Career Statistics vs Tarik Skubal

Compared to most of the league, the Mariners have hit Skubal decently well. In 112 total at-bats, they’ve managed a .223 average and .656 OPS. Those stats aren’t anything to write home about against your average pitcher, but they are well above the mean against Skubal. Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Cal Raleigh, and Julio Rodriguez have all homered against the Detroit righty.

This season, two of Skubal’s worst starts came against Seattle. He allowed three runs on six hits and three walks over 5.2 innings during a 3-2 loss in Seattle on April 2. He was then tagged for four runs on four hits and two walks over just 5.0 innings in a 12-3 loss in Detroit on July 11.

He did rack up 13 Ks over those 10.2 IP, though.

Coincidentally, Castillo was he opposing starter in both of those games. He allowed two runs on five hits and two walks over 7.0 IP in April, and three runs on six hits and two walks over 5.0 IP in July. He had 11 strikeouts over those 12 innings.

Mariners vs Tigers Player Props

MLB player props as of October 5 at BetMGM. Over odds listed first, under odds listed second.

Skubal’s strikeout line is set high at a massive 8.5, a testament to his elite swing-and-miss ability. The Mariners’ lineup will be fighting to make contact in a must-win game.

Castillo’s strikeout line is just 5.5, facing a Tigers’ lineup with several players who have hit him well.

The Mariners’ home run odds are all way longer than they were in Game 1 due to Skubal’s presence on the mound. Skubal gave up 18 home runs in 195.1 regular-season innings, which is roughly one home run every 11 innings pitched.

Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Picks & Prediction

• Mariners moneyline (+135) at bet365
• Under 6.0 runs (-119) at DraftKings
• First 5 innings under 1.5 runs (+270) at FanDuel

This ALDS matchup boils down to a premier pitching duel where every run will feel monumental. Tarik Skubal has been nothing short of electric for the Detroit Tigers, and his 1.17 playoff ERA commands respect. He faces a Seattle Mariners offense that has looked anemic, posting a paltry .158 batting average in the postseason. On the other side, Luis Castillo gets the ball for Seattle in a do-or-die scenario. As the team’s undisputed ace, he has the stuff to shut down any lineup, but he faces a Tigers offense that has seen him well, collectively hitting .323 against him with an .857 OPS.

Despite the daunting matchup against Skubal, several historical trends favor the home underdog. The Tigers have been a poor bet following a victory, posting a dismal 2-10 (.167) record in their last 12 games after a win. They are also just 2-8 (.200) as a favorite in their last 10 contests. These trends suggest a letdown is possible after an emotional extra-inning win. Furthermore, the Mariners have historically performed well against Detroit, going 4-1 in their last five head-to-head matchups.

While the reverse line movement on the moneyline is a major concern, the situational spot is too strong to ignore. The Mariners are at home, facing elimination, with their ace on the mound. The pressure is on, but this is precisely the type of game where a desperate, talented team finds a way to win. The low total of 5.5 is the sharpest line on the board, and with two elite pitchers, runs will be scarce. I’m backing the desperate home team and the dominant pitching to keep this game tight and low-scoring.

Sign Up for SBD’s Newsletter Now

Did you want the latest sports betting news, analysis, picks, betting trends, and relevant data straight to your inbox? If so, you’ll want to subscribe to SBD’s newsletter now!