Nationals vs Pirates Expert Picks & Betting Splits (Apr 16)

• The Pittsburgh Pirates are -155 moneyline favorites in their series finale against the Washington Nationals
• Pittsburgh is currently tied for lead in the NL Central, while the Nationals are fourth in the NL East
• Read below for the latest Nationals vs Pirates odds and my expert prediction

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Tied for the NL Central lead, the Pittsburgh Pirates (11-7) look to take three of four from the Washington Nationals (8-10) as they wrap up their series Thursday in Pittsburgh.

Following a tight defensive battle yesterday where the Pirates shut out Washington 2-0, the visiting Nationals enter as a road underdog in the MLB odds, and are desperate to spark an offense that managed just three hits last game.

First pitch goes from PNC Park in Pittsburgh at 12:35pm ET, with MLB TV providing the broadcast coverage.

Read below for my Nationals vs Pirates picks, updated odds and betting splits.

Nationals vs Pirates Odds

The graphic above shows the best available odds, which are subject to change

The Pirates enter this afternoon’s contest as solid home favorites, getting -155 odds on the moneyline, courtesy of BetMGM. Meanwhile, taking the Nationals to win straight up and leave town with a split pays a cool +140.

On the runline, FanDuel has -152 odds for the Nats to keep it to within two runs, while Pittsburgh to cover 1.5 runs is paying out at +140.

The total runs market originally opened at 9.0, but that figure is now only for the Under, at DraftKings. Over bettors will want to head over to bet365, where the total has dropped a half point to 8.5.

Nationals vs Pirates Predictions, Picks

• pick: Pirates ML (-155 at BetMGM)

This one will come down to the pitching matchup, and I think this is advantage Pittsburgh, as they will start 26-year-old righty Braxton Ashcraft.

While both pitchers boast sparkling ERAs barely hovering around 2.00, their advanced metrics tell a distinct story. Ashcraft has been nothing short of overpowering for the Pirates. He has posted an elite 1.00 WHIP and a dominant 10.59 K/9.

In his last start, Ashcraft scattered four hits over five innings and allowed just one earned run against the Cubs, in a game Pittsburgh won 4-3 in 11 innings. He’s given up a total of four runs in his three starts this season, and hasn’t allowed more than four hits in a game.

Pitching like that helps the Pirates’ offense look good, as they hover around or inside the Top 10 in batting average, OBP and OPS, and ditto for hits, home runs, RBIs and runs scored.

Nationals vs Pirates Pitching Stats

The Nationals have been highly productive away from home, but their quality of contact reveals red flags. They sit near the absolute bottom of the league in average exit velocity at 87.1 mph. They aren’t driving the baseball with authority, which spells trouble against Ashcraft.

On the mound for them is Foster Griffin, who has enjoyed tremendous results for the Nationals, going 2-0 in the early season. Last start, he threw 5 1/3 innings of scoreless, 1-hit ball in a 3-1 win over the Brewers. However, advanced data suggests regression is looming. Griffin’s xFIP sits at a vulnerable 4.49, nearly three full runs higher than his actual ERA. This discrepancy is fueled by an unsustainably low .214 BABIP.

The ultimate difference-maker lies in the later innings. The Pirates feature a reliable bullpen with a 3.50 ERA, while the Nationals relief corps has struggled mightily, posting a 6.16 bullpen ERA. This late-game disparity gives the Pirates a distinct statistical edge once the starters exit.

WAS vs PIT Public Betting Splits

Looking at the MLB public betting splits, 87% of all betting tickets are backing the Pirates to secure the home victory. On the handle, confidence in the Pirates is even more staggering, with 95.3% of the total money wagered riding on them.

Bettors are firmly expecting offensive production, with the Over ommanding 85.3% of the betting tickets and an identical 85.3% of the total betting stake.

Most times, the public backs one side but the smart money heavily backs the other. For today’s matchup, no such situation exists, which means both the betting public and larger bankrolls are heavily concentrated on the Pirates and the Over.