Buccaneers vs Lions Picks & Closing Odds

• The Detroit Lions are 6.5-point home favorites as they welcome in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on MNF
• At 5-1, the Buccaneers currently own the best record in the NFC
• Keep reading for my Buccaneers vs Lions picks and predictions, plus closing odds

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It’s early for sure, but Monday Night Football offers a potential NFC Championship preview when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1, 4-2 ATS) visit the Detroit Lions (4-2, 4-2 ATS). 

Detroit has reeled off nine wins in its past 11 at home, and despite Tampa Bay being one of the teams to hang an L on them in that span, the books still have the Lions as comfortable favorites in the NFL odds.

Kickoff is set for 7pm ET from Ford Field in Motown, with ABC carrying the broadcast.

Buccaneers vs Lions Closing Lines

Roughly two hours before kickoff, the Lions are -270 moneyline favorites (or shorter) while the Bucs are as long as +225. The total ranges from 53.0 at bet365 to 54.5 at DraftKings.

The interactive table above will automatically update as the NFL betting odds move over the course of the day.

Buccaneers vs Lions Line Movement

This line started out as low as 4.5 points in the but has settled in at most books with the Lions set as 6-point favorites.

That mostly has to do with Tampa’s injuries to its skill players, as they need to be able to put up points against Detroit’s no. 2-ranked scoring offense.

We have you covered with our Buccaneers vs Lions betting analysis 💰

Bucs vs Lions Picks: https://t.co/uMhBzDS2JH

Bucs vs Lions Anytime TD Scorers: https://t.co/5RsCcj27gM

Bucs vs Lions SGP: https://t.co/RteCqI4cWW

Bucs vs Lions Betting Splits: https://t.co/3OrTdua7Hy

— SportsBettingDime (@SBD) October 20, 2025

We know that WR Chris Godwin (leg) and RB Bucky Irving (foot) are both out, while stud rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) and Mike Evans (hamstring) are both questionable.

The moneyline mimics those moves, with Tampa Bay now as long as +235 after opening at around +170. The Lions are entrenched as roughly -280 favorites, and has fluctuated anywhere from -238 to -303, depending where you look.

As for the total, it has stayed in the low 50-point range, with DraftKings offering one of the higher totals at 53.5 points.

This angle of Baker Mayfield's TD pass 🔥

SFvsTB on CBS/Paramount+https://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/UmUzDZE8r7

— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2025

Looking at the NFL public betting percentages, the public likes Detroit to win outright, with 73% of the bets and 73% of the money on a Lions victory. 

That flips when it comes to the spread, with 72% of the bets on the Bucs to cover at +6.5, with 63% of the money going that way as well.

The total is close, with 47% of bettors banging the Over, but offering up far more of the money, a 65% clip. More than half the bets are on the Under, but just 35% of the money is going that way.

TB vs DET Betting Trends

The Buccaneers are 16-4 ATS on the road, including 3-0-0 ATS this year, since acquiring Baker Mayfield before the 2023 season. That’s the best record in the NFL over that period. They have won three straight as road underdogs.

Tampa Bay has cashed the Over in four straight games, 

The Lions are 3-0-0 ATS as a favorite this year, and have covered 11 straight games following a loss.

Buccaneers vs Lions Picks & Prediction

• Over 53 points (-110 at Bet365)

These are two of the six highest scoring teams currently going in the NFL, and they are built to put up points.

The Lions are an absolute juggernaut at home. Led by Jared Goff, who is also having himself a year, with 14 TD passes and just two picks, Detroit has scored at least 30 points in nine of the last 12 they’ve played at home since the start of last year.

Detroit’s offense was throttled for the first time since Week 1, in a 30-17 loss to the Chiefs last game, also putting their four-game win streak to bed. Their offense should be motivated to show up tonight.

Even with a depleted group of skill players, Baker Mayfield has worked his way into the NFL MVP odds, as he’s thrown 12 touchdowns against just one interception this season. I expect him to continue finding ways to generate offense.

GOFF TO JAMO FOR 44-YARD TD.

CHIvsDET on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/lkhS6bSOMo

— NFL (@NFL) September 14, 2025

Where I feel the books might have overlooked things is Detroit’s decimated defensive backfield. Corner Terrion Arnold (shoulder), S Kerby Joseph (knee) and S Brian Branch (suspension), are all out for this one, so Mayfield could, if given enough protection, pick apart this secondary.

Both these teams rank bottom half of the league in points scored. Tampa isn’t the same team that came in here last year and outlasted Detroit 20-16.

They’ll run with them Monday, in what I expect to be a high-scoring, entertaining game between a pair of NFC giants, who rank in the Top 8 of the 2026 Super Bowl odds.